With the Dec. 3 publication of a completely unexpected declassified National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), "Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities," a consensus has emerged that war with Iran "now appears to be off the agenda." Indeed, Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, claimed the report dealt a "fatal blow" to the country's enemies, while his foreign ministry spokesman called it a "great victory." I disagree with that consensus, believing that military action against Iran is now more likely than before the NIE came out. The NIE's main point, contained in its first line, famously holds: "We judge with high confidence that in fall...