Free Republic

JIM ROGERS: I'm A Gold Bull, But I Think Prices Will Tumble For A While Longer Rajeshni Naidu-Ghelani, CNBCDecember 20, 2012With gold prices being hammered in recent weeks, and trading near four-month lows on Wednesday, longtime gold bull Jim Rogers is sounding a word of caution, saying it's possible the correction in bullion may continue into the new year. "Just be careful, there're too many bulls, including me, but I'm very cautious," Rogers told CNBC. "Gold is having a correction— it's been correcting for 15-16 months now— which is normal in my view, and it's possible that [the] correction is...

GDP SOARS PAST EXPECTATIONS, RISING 3.1 PERCENT Matthew BoeslerDecember 20, 2012 U.S. economic output rose 3.1 percent in Q3 versus consensus estimates of a 2.8 percent gain. An increase in nonfarm private inventories was one of the largest single drivers of growth, contributing 1.1 percentage points to the number. Personal consumption growth came in at 1.6 percent versus expectations of a 1.4 percent rise. Below, the full text from the BEA: Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 3.1...

Shiller: Housing Hasn’t Necessarily Bottomed Yet 12/20/2012 1:39 AM Cullen Roche In an interview on CNBC earlier today Robert Shiller provided his outlook for housing. Shiller says house prices haven’t necessarily bottomed yet. “A lot of people seem to think that if the market turns around, that means more of the same, meaning another big boom.” … “I don’t think [a boom] is in the cards. We might see home prices go up a little bit, you know, a little bit above inflation, maybe. Not likely that we’ll see a real boom.” “I’d like to people getting optimistic again. Not...

What Is FedEx Telling Us About The Global Economy? 12/20/2012 3:04 AM Cullen Roche Everyone always thinks that Alcoa kicks off the earnings season, but I donÂ’t see it that way. The real earnings season kicks off with FedEx who usually reports well in advance of Alcoa and gives us a much more meaningful look into the state of the economy. So whatÂ’s the global bellwether telling us? Here are some of the key highlights from their earnings report yesterday and the conference call: â–  Guidance for the full-year was in-line with expectations after last quarterÂ’s big cut. That could...

Dr. Paul A. Ibbetson on The Conscience of Kansas radio program on KRMR The Patriot 105.7FM interviews book author Steve Goreham on his new book, "The Mad, Mad, Mad, World of Climatism."

What trends will emerge — or accelerate — in the restaurant industry in 2013? Food, marketing, technology, equipment, whatever? We asked some of our most trusted experts for their opinions and came up with this compilation: "The restaurant industry will continue to be challenged by rising commodities prices. Fraud will continue to trend upward with increases in credit card skimming, and theft schemes; and the threat of late night robbery is ever present (particularly as more restaurants add more hours). Mitigating and preventing these losses with sound loss prevention strategies must become a priority to stay competitive in the marketplace."...

Economist John Williams thinks the economy is in worse shape than most people think. In 2013, Williams predicts, “As this goes forward, you’re going to see we’re going to be in a new recession.” The Federal Reserve announced last week it is now printing a total of $85 billion every month to reduce unemployment and stimulate the economy. Williams says, “That’s nonsense. . . . There’s nothing they can do to stimulate the economy.” Williams has long contended the Fed is really just using the weak economy to continue to prop up the banking system. Williams says, “If the Fed...

FREEPORT, Ill.—Titan International Inc. has laid off about 60 workers at its plant in Freeport because of slumping demand for construction tires. The cuts are the last in a series of layoffs that began shortly before the November election at the company's three U.S. tire plants, according to Titan CEO Maurice Taylor Jr. All the cutbacks are part of the firm's construction tire segment. Quincy, Ill.-headquartered Titan's tire factories in Bryan, Ohio, and Des Moines, Iowa, also experienced layoffs during the past two months, about 90 between the two facilities, Taylor said...

GUNDLACH: 'The Real Killer Will Be The Next Recession, And There Will Be One' Sam RoDec. 18, 2012, 5:37 PM Bond god Jeff Gundlach was on Bloomberg Television's "Market Makers" with Erik Schatzker and Stephanie Ruhle. Among other things, Gundlach is concerned about the prospect of another recession, which he thinks will happen thanks to spending cuts and tax hikes. We got out of the last recession thanks to the government racking up debt. The next time around, Gundlach thinks that type of fiscal policy won't be tolerated. Here's Gundlach: The real killer is going to be the next recession....

ROSENBERG: Here Are 6 Dark Economic Clouds That Are Parting Sam RoDecember 18, 2012 Lately, David Rosenberg has adopted a more optimistic tone in his research notes. "While I wouldn't exactly say that I see silver linings, I would say that some clouds certainly appear to be parting," wrote the normally bearish Rosenberg in this morning's Breakfast With Dave note. He offers six such clouds that are parting: 1."...some stabilization of the U.S. data that should prevent further downgrades at least as Q4 GDP consensus call is concerned." 2."...we are moving closer to a deal on the fiscal front. The...

Promises Will Be Broken By Bill Bonner 12/17/12When wealth was easy to identify and easy to control — that is, when it was mostly land — a few insiders could do a fairly good job of keeping it for themselves. The feudal hierarchy gave everybody a place in the system, with the insiders at the top of the heap. But come the industrial revolution and suddenly wealth was accumulating outside the feudal structure. Populations were growing too…and growing restless. The old regime tried to tax this new money, but the new ‘bourgeoisie’ resisted. “No taxation without representation,” was a popular...

A mood of economic gloom hangs over the nation as President Obama and Republican leaders scramble to strike a deficit deal that avoids automatic tax hikes and spending cuts, according to a new poll for The Hill. The poll, conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, found nearly 6-in-10 people (59 percent) feel the country is on the wrong track. It also showed people are deeply pessimistic about their chances for future prosperity, with 54 percent saying they believe their children will be worse off as adults than their parents.The poll results cast a shadow over talks in Washington aimed at averting...

The Psy-Ops War on Preppers: This Has Become a Two-For-the-Price-of-One Crisis Daisy Luther December 17th, 2012 The Organic Prepper This article has been generously shared with our community by long-time contributor Daisy Luther of The Organic Prepper. First of all, where is the headquarters of this “Doomsday Preppers Movement” I’ve been reading about? And where can I sign up? I didn’t realize there was an organized movement, one deserving of capital letters. Who is the leader of this “movement”? I’d like to meet him (or her) immediately! The propaganda machine is not only going after guns in the wake of...

RAIL INDICATORS: The Economy Continues To Soften Cullen Roche, Pragmatic CapitalismDec. 16, 2012, 10:39 AM More weakness in this week’s rail traffic report. The AAR reported a -0.3% reading in intermodal. This is the second consecutive negative weekly reading. This brings the 12 week moving average down to 1.3%. That’s about in-line with the consensus Q4 GDP predictions and indicative of an economy that is growing, but just slightly. Here’s more via AAR: “The Association of American Railroads (AAR) today reported declines in weekly rail traffic for the week ending December 8, 2012, with U.S. railroads originating 292,206 carloads, down...

THE TRUTH ABOUT THE DEFICIT: It's Not Very Big, And There's Only One Way To Close It By Joe WeisenthalDeember 16, 2012 "Trillion dollar deficits as far as the eye can see." "Hundreds of trillions in unfunded liabilities." "Washington is broke." "Only cranking up taxes, and slashing benefits can save us from leaving a crushing burden on future generations." Those are the kinds of lines you hear from politicians (and even some smart people) all the time as Washington DC debates the Fiscal Cliff and so on. But there's a couple of things you should know about the deficit. One...

China Is Officially Dusting The U.S. In Manufacturing (And That's OK) By Jordan Weissmann Dec 13 2012, 12:20 PM In 2010, China just barely edged out the United States as the world's top manufacturer by output -- a distinction it hadn't held since 1850. Still the two countries were basically neck and neck. No longer. The United Nations has updated its national accounts data to capture 2011, and thanks to China's breakneck growth, its manufacturing output is now leaving ours in a cloud of coal dust, as shown in this graph from AEI's Mark Perry. China's trend line is practically...

OH NO: Roubini Believes In The Housing Recovery, And Is Optimistic About The US Economy Joe WeisenthalDec. 14, 2012, 12:17 PM Uh-oh! Dr. doom isn't sounding a little... positive. He was on Bloomberg Surveillance today. You can watch the video here. This partial transcript was provided to us by Bloomberg: Roubini on whether he's bullish on the United States: "In the long term, I think that the fundamentals of the U.S. are a lot stronger than other advanced countries. In the short run I think we will have another year of very anemic economic growth. Next year we will have...

This list has been getting around the web quite a bit. By most accounts it seems to be written by VtheK, with the original post here.I've only seen it in text, and this is the perfect type of thing to make a graphic for...

The Fed’s Operation Twist was intended to lower long-term interest rates while raising short-term interest rates. But notice that it has worked exactly the opposite. Notice that the yield curve has actually increased in slope over time at the critical Twist dates. With Industrial Production increasing by 1.1% in November (Sandy recovery efforts), it is possible that The Fed will take its foot off the accelerator. On the other hand, capacity utilization has not reached 80% since the Great Recession ended in June 2009. The Fed likes to keep their foot on the accelerator until capacity utilization exceeds 80%, THEN...

SINGAPORE -- While the U.S. unemployment rate "dropped" to 7.7 percent last month -- a figure even the Washington Post acknowledged was due "in large part because the labor force fell by 350,000" -- here in this modern and prosperous city-state of slightly more than 5 million people, unemployment is practically nonexistent at 1.9 percent. In part, this is due to a work ethic that seems to be in the genes here. But there is something else at work that should astound Washington politicians struggling with expensive "entitlement" programs and with those who receive them. The Economist wrote about it...