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HOISINGTON: Forget All This Jubilation, The Recession Is Coming THIS Quarter Joe Weisenthal Oct. 12, 2011, 3:07 PM Image: NASA Forget all the market rallying, and the renewed talk about howe we'll avoid a double-dip recesion. The latest analysis from Hoisington Investment Management (.pdf) calls for a recession this quarter. The firm cites three big cyclical developments: Negative economic growth will probably be registered in the U.S. during the fourth quarter of 2011, and in subsequent quarters in 2012. Though partially caused by monetary and fiscal actions and excessive indebtedness, this contraction has been further aggravated by three current cyclical...

When a man like Steve Keen says the trillions spent on refinancing the banks has truly stuffed us, we really should listen I stumbled out into the autumn sunshine, figures ricocheting around my head, still trying to absorb what I had heard. I felt as if I had just attended a funeral: a funeral at which all of us got buried. I cannot claim to have understood everything in the lecture: Sonnenschein-Mantel-Debreu theory and the 41-line differential equation were approximately 15.8 metres over my head. But the points I grasped were clear enough. We're stuffed: stuffed to a degree that...

Midnight on St Mary Street in Cardiff and everything is exactly as expected. Half a dozen young women slump in a gutter, men urinate outside a health-food shop and, as hordes stagger between nightclubs, someone lifts up a blow-up doll with a sex toy protruding out of it. The street smells of urine and lager, police struggle to break up a fight outside the Walkabout bar and a paramedic bundles a comatose girl on to a wheelchair. But it's a quiet night for 20-year-old Naomi Jenkins. She has 'only' drunk three shots of peach schnapps, cider and three shots of...

Warning U.S. HyperInflation Ahead Economics / HyperInflation Oct 09, 2011 - 06:20 AM By: Seth Barani Money Supply M2 has expanded at Warp-9 within the past few months, based on Federal Reserve Data released on Sep.30th. In fact, the ratio of M2 to M1 has set a World Record, exponentially growing to over 5:1 (M2 is near $9.6 Trillion, over 12% growth this year so far, projected to show 15% growth in one year, while M1 has remained constant near $2 Trillion.) Chart below shows the growth of M2 in 2011: The daily price chart of Gold is shown next....

ECRI Recession Watch: Growth Index Declines Further By Doug Short October 7, 2011 Last week, September 30th, the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) publicly announced that the U.S. is tipping into a recession, a call the Institute had announced to its private clients on September 21st. Early last week, ECRI notified clients that the U.S. economy is indeed tipping into a new recession. And there's nothing that policy makers can do to head it off. ECRI's recession call isn't based on just one or two leading indexes, but on dozens of specialized leading indexes, including the U.S. Long Leading Index,...

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The percentage of Americans who owned their homes has seen its biggest decline since the Great Depression, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The rate of home ownership fell to 65.1% in April 2010, 1.1 percentage points lower than it was in 2000. The decline was the biggest drop since the 1930s, when home ownership plunged 4.2%. The most recent decade-over-decade drop, however, only tells half the story. Home ownership during the 2000s "was really high in the middle of the decade, up to almost 70% at one point around 2004," said Ellen Wilson, a survey...

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The American dream of homeownership has felt its biggest drop since the Great Depression, according to new 2010 census figures released Thursday. The analysis by the Census Bureau found the homeownership rate fell to 65.1 percent last year. While that level remains the second highest decennial rate, analysts say the U.S. may never return to its mid-decade housing boom peak in which nearly 70 percent of occupied households were owned by their residents. The reason: a longer-term economic reality of tighter credit, prolonged job losses and reduced government involvement. Unemployed young adults are least likely to own,...

This Economist Is Forecasting A Recession, And He's Never Been Wrong Economics / Double Dip Recession Oct 04, 2011 - 07:03 AM By: Money Morning David Zeiler writes: The U.S. economy is "tipping into a new recession" and there's nothing President Barack Obama or the U.S. Federal Reserve can do to prevent it, according to Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI). Now, if you're wondering why you should believe this prediction ahead of others then there's something you should know: According to The Economist, Achuthan's predictions on the direction of economy - either toward recession or...

Why Government Spending Won’t Inspire Consumer Confidence By Bill Bonner 10/04/11 Paris, France – Blood ran in the streets again yesterday. The Dow fell another 258 points. A few more days like that and the index will be below 10,000. That ought to make an impression. Among other things, it should help people realize that there has been no recovery…not even a weak one. And there won’t be a recovery, ever. Not of this economy. Today, a chorus of indicators chants a warning. The copper market — down 23% in September — tells us recession is coming. Falling demand for...

Prophets Of Doom: 12 Shocking Quotes From Insiders About The Horrific Economic Crisis That Is Almost HereOctober 1, 2011 We are getting so close to a financial collapse in Europe that you can almost hear the debt bubbles popping. All across the western world, governments and major banks are rapidly becoming insolvent. So far, the powers that be are keeping all of the balls in the air by throwing around lots of bailout money. But now the political will for more bailouts is drying up and the number of troubled entities seems to grow by the day. Right now the...

Whereas Achuthan said the jury is still out in late August, the weakness in leading economic indicators — and ECRI uses a dozen for the U.S. alone, he notes — has become a "contagion" that is spreading like "wildfire." Although the recovery has been "subpar" by nearly every measure, Achuthan refutes the idea the economy never got out of recession in the first place. "Just because it looks and feels a certain way doesn't mean it's a recession," he says. "You haven't seen anything yet. It's going to get a lot worse."

The Road From Depression George Soros 2011-09-29 NEW YORK – Financial markets are driving the world towards another Great Depression with incalculable political consequences. The authorities, particularly in Europe, have lost control of the situation. They need to regain control, and they need to do so now. Three bold steps are needed. First, the governments of the eurozone must agree in principle on a new treaty creating a common treasury for the eurozone. In the meantime, the major banks must be put under the direction of the European Central Bank in exchange for a temporary guarantee and permanent recapitalization. Third,...

Advocates for the unemployed have cheered a push by the Obama administration to ban discrimination against the jobless. But business groups and their allies are calling the effort unnecessary and counterproductive. The job creation bill that President Obama sent to Congress earlier this month includes a provision that would allow unsuccessful job applicants to sue if they think a company of 15 more employees denied them a job because they were unemployed. The provision would ban employment ads that explicitly declare the unemployed ineligible, with phrases like "Jobless need not apply." As The Lookout has reported, such ads appear to...

In an interview on BBC News this morning that left the hosts gob-smacked (google it... it is the BBC after all), Alessio Rastani outlines in a mere three-and-a-half-minutes what we all know and most ignore. While the whole interview is worth watching, the money shot for us was "This economic crisis is like a cancer, if you just wait and wait hoping it is going to go away, just like a cancer it is going to grow and it will be too late!". While he dreams of recessions, sees Goldman ruling the world, and urges people to prepare, it is...

Short China And The Not So Great Depression Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011 Sep 26, 2011 - 02:24 AM By: Peter Navarro Since February, I have called the market trend as a sideways pattern. This kind of trend dictates a move out of equities for the small active retail investors. I reiterate that call now and see far more risk to the downside than reward to the upside. I note that anyone moving to cash as of my February call would have given away no upside profits and would, at this point in time, have been protected from a more...

The power of DSunshine vitamin’s potential health benefits stir up, split scientists By Nathan Seppa July 16th, 2011; Vol.180 #2 (p. 22) A nutritional supplement that is free of charge, offers a wide range of health benefits and poses little risk sounds like fodder for a late-night TV commercial. It offers a safe route to better health, these advocates say, by promoting proper function of the bones, heart, brain, immune system, you name it. Yet, the proponents claim, most people don’t get enough. Whereas humans’ pre­historic ancestors lived outdoors and made oodles of vitamin D in their sun-exposed skin, people...

<p>A confession: I’m too excited, nervous, and agitated to start this post cleverly, so let's just get to the economic heart of things.</p> <p>As anyone with a financial pulse knows, yesterday specifically and this week generally marks, well, the beginning of the end. The end of geo-political economic optimism, hope, and confidence. And, at least for me, this moment could not have come soon enough.</p>

ROB ARNOTT: We're In The Worst Depression Since The Great Depression Gus Lubin Sep. 23, 2011, 7:10 AM Rob Arnott says we're in the worst depression since the Great Depression and the Fed may be making things worse. Arnott, who oversees $80 billion at Research Affiliates, tells King World News: When real interest rates are 2%-4% and inflation rates are 2%-4% you get a really nice peak where the average P/E ratio is north of 25 times earnings. The interesting thing is both of these numbers are within the control of the Fed, the Fed can control the rate of...

The economy is a fraud. It has been setup in such a way that it is a self perpetuating parasite borrowing on itself. The government steps in and props it up just as it starts to fail with help from the private corporation known as The Fed. The economy is in worse shape that people realize right now but surprisingly the dollar is still rising. The dollar is still gaining value because people are buying dollars and treasuries as they sell stocks. The concern is when people start fleeing the dollar the real crisis will come and unfortunately we seem...

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks tumbled on Thursday, extending losses for a fourth straight session, as the Federal Reserve's weak outlook for the U.S. economy and disappointing data China heightened fears about a global recession. Big banks were the top decliners, a day after Moody's lowered debt ratings for large lenders. Shares of Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C - News) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS - News) hit a 52-week low at the market's open. Citigroup fell more than 4 percent to $24.25 and Morgan Stanley dipped more than 6 percent to $12.99. -snip- "A lot of people were hoping for the Fed...