Free Republic

Over the coming months, I believe we could see an economic meltdown at least six times the size of the 2007 subprime mortgage meltdown... The next financial collapse, already on our radar screen, will not come from hedge funds or home mortgages. It will come from junk bonds, especially energy-related and emerging-market corporate debt. The Financial Times recently estimated that the total amount of energy-related corporate debt issued from 2009-2014 for exploration and development is over $5 trillion. Meanwhile, the Bank for International Settlements recently estimated that the total amount of emerging-market dollar-denominated corporate debt is over $9 trillion. Energy-sector...

Myles Udland January 14, 2015Copper took turn for the worst on Tuesday night, falling more than 6% to below $2.50 per pound in New York, a fresh four-year low. In a note to clients on Wednesday, David Cui at Bank of America Merrill Lynch said this not sending a good signal to the white hot Shanghai stock market, which was the world's best performing stock market in 2014. Cui wrote that given the widespread use of copper in the Chinese economy, a drop demand — and a resulting drop in price — is often a good indicator of economic health...

We have witnessed the price implosion of oil, and the subsequent decline in gasoline prices. Is this the beginning of a trend, and what industry will admit and be subject to an inability to control its pricing structure? Cable television? The cost of cable television is a broken promise. Originally, for those old enough to remember, the promise of cable television was that though it may involve a charge, something new for television, there would be no commercials. Anyone remember? Now, the cable providers have it both ways. There are commercials, and infomercials, on which they receive money from not...

If you do not believe that we are heading directly toward another major financial crisis, you need to read this article. So many of the exact same patterns that preceded the great financial collapse of 2008 are happening again right before our very eyes. History literally appears to be repeating, but most Americans seem absolutely oblivious to what is going on. The mainstream media and our politicians are promising them that everything is going to be okay somehow, and that seems to be good enough for most people. But the signs that another massive financial crisis is on the horizon...

Stefano Pozzebon and Reuters January 5, 2015 U.S. crude and Brent futures dropped to fresh 5-1/2-year lows on Monday as worries about a surplus of global supplies amid weak demand continued to drag on oil markets. At 11.30am GMT (6.30am ET) Brent was trading at $55.35 a barrel, losing 2%. Previously, it temporally slipped as low as $55.16, its the lowest values since May 2009. Here is a chart of how it looked at 11.30am GMT (6.30am ET): Brent 5.1.15 11.30am Investing.com U.S. crude slid as low as $51.40 a barrel, also its lowest since May 2009, and at 11.35am...

Crude oil is not the only commodity that is crashing. Iron ore is on a similar trajectory and for a common reason. Namely, the two-decade-long economic boom fueled by the money printing rampage of the world’s central banks is beginning to cool rapidly. (snip)Nowhere is this more evident than in China’s vastly overbuilt steel industry, where capacity has soared from about 100 million tons in 1995 to upwards of 1.2 billion tons today. Again, this 12X growth in less than two decades is not just red capitalism getting rambunctious; its actually an economically cancerous deformation that will eventually dislocate the...

December30, 2014 John_Rubino Twelve short months ago, the immediate future looked like a lock. Overvalued equities had to fall, ridiculously-low interest rates had to rise, and beaten-down precious metals had to resume their bull market. The evidence was overwhelming. Debt in the developed world had risen to $157 trillion, or 376% of GDP, by far the highest level on record and clearly unsustainable. Long-term US Treasury rates had been falling for literally three decades and despite a recent uptick were so low that the only way forward seemed to be up. Europe and Japan were drifting into recessions that could...

Tyler Durden 12/30/2014 USDJPY has tumbled overnight back below 119.50, dragging stocks (equity futures now at session lows) and Treasury yields with it. But it appears the Gold/Yen trade that is reacting most significantly as a huge volume flushes through futures markets spiking Gold back above $1200...(snip)

December 17, 2014 John Rubino To say that gold is in a bear market is to misunderstand both gold and markets. Gold isn't an investment that goes up and down. It is money in the most basic store-of-value sense. Most of the time it just sits there, and when its price changes in local currency terms that says more about the local currency than about gold. But when currencies collapse, gold shines. Consider the above from the point of view of a typical Russian. The ruble is tanking (no need to understand why -- all fiat currencies go this way...

Sam Ro December 17, 2014Oil prices are surging. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil on Tuesday rose to $58.98 from $54.20. Brent crude rose to $63.50 from about $58.70. At this point, there seems to be no obvious explanation for the move. On Tuesday, oil prices tumbled to five-year lows. WTI touched $53.60 and Brent sank to $59.86, both were the lowest levels since May 2009. (snip)

Cratering crude-oil prices may be a blessing to cash-strapped American consumers, but it’s a double-edged sword when it comes to the overall economy. The problem for the overall economy is not so much the drop in oil prices as it is the velocity at which oil prices have fallen. The plunge from a peak of just over $100 per barrel in the early summer to today’s $58 — a massive 42 percent drop in just a few short months, most of which has come in the last 90 days — could make anyone’s head spin. The rapid fall in crude...

Myles Udland December 11, 2014Oil is falling again. In morning trade on Thursday, after a quiet session overnight, the price of WTI crude oil was sliding again, moving back below $61 a barrel and towards the lows hit on Wednesday. On Wednesday, WTI fell below $60.50, the lowest since 2009, while Brent crude oil also dipped below $65 a barrel. (snip)

Adam Rose, Reuters December 10, 2014 Brent crude remained above $66 barrel on Wednesday, after resuming its drift downward amid a glut of oil on the market, following a short-lived reprieve the previous day when a weaker dollar had provided some support to prices. Worries about oversupply have pushed Brent down 40% since June. "Notwithstanding day-to-day movements, the fundamental picture hasn't really changed, and that is one of supply outstripping demand growth for most of the year," said Phin Ziebell, a senior analyst at National Australia Bank. "It's an incessant march downwards, and it would be interesting to see where...

If the commodity markets were followed as widely as the stock market, the financial world would be buzzing with the news of a crash that has taken place in the value of "stuff." While the plunging prices of oil, natural gas and gasoline are making headlines every day, thanks to the benefits accruing to consumers of energy products, the message of the commodity markets, in many ways, is hardly a reassuring one when it comes to the outlook for global economic growth. Basic materials prices for the likes of copper, nickel, iron ore, and other industrial commodities, have collapsed, both...

December 09, 2014 Jeff Clark A glance at any gold price chart reveals the severity of the bear mauling it has endured over the last three years. More alarming, even for die-hard gold investors, is that some of the fundamental drivers that would normally push gold higher, like a weak US dollar, have reversed. Throw in a correction-defying Wall Street stock market and the never-ending rain of disdain for gold from the mainstream and it may seem that there’s no reason to buy gold; the bear is here to stay. If so, then I have a question. Actually, a whole...

Lower fuel prices are compounding the longest commodity slump in a generation. Because energy accounts for as much as half the cost to produce food and metals, all sorts of commodities will keep dropping, according to Societe Generale SA and Citigroup Inc. With inventories ample and slowing economies eroding demand, cheaper oil lowers the price floor for mining companies and farmers to remain profitable. Corn may drop another 3 percent, cotton 6.5 percent and gold as much as 5 percent, SocGen estimates. Costs are falling as surpluses emerge in copper and sugar and as the economy slows in China, the...

Could rapidly falling oil prices trigger a nightmare scenario for the commodity derivatives market? The big Wall Street banks did not expect plunging home prices to cause a mortgage-backed securities implosion back in 2008, and their models did not anticipate a decline in the price of oil by more than 40 dollars in less than six months this time either. If the price of oil stays at this level or goes down even more, someone out there is going to have to absorb some absolutely massive losses. In some cases, the losses will be absorbed by oil producers, but many...

December 03, 2014 By: Clive_Maund Yesterday was an extraordinary day in the Precious Metals markets, with a good chance that it signals the reversal from the brutal 3-year plus bear market that so many have waited so long to see. The day started with gold and silver plunging on the news that the Swiss voted against backing their currency with gold, but later in the day they rallied strongly on heavy turnover to close with giant reversal candlesticks on their charts. Regardless of the reasons for this bizarre behavior, technically this action looks very positive, and this is written with...

Myles Udland December 1, 2014 Gold is exploding higher. In afternoon trade on Monday, gold futures were up better than 3.5% in the last 24 hours to around $1,215 an ounce, moving back above $1,200 for the first time in more than a week. The spike in gold reverses a plunge in gold late last week that was continued on Sunday night as the futures market re-opened after voters in Switzerland rejected a measure that would have required the Swiss National Bank to increase its gold holdings from 8% to 20%. Oil, which also got crushed last week, is also...

Tyler Durden 12/01/2014After last night's big flush across commodities, they have rallied notably. Gold is now up over $50 from those lows, with Silver, copper, and even crude bouncing hard (after testing below $64 overnight). The USD is notably weaker, stocks lower, and bond yields testing mid-October flash-crash Bullard lows...(snip)