Free Republic

There will be a recession in the United States and much of the rest of the world in 2016. After reading the above sentence, you should be thinking, what possibly could the writer know that the International Monetary Fund, the Federal Reserve and the Obama administration do not know given all their resources and all of their professional economic forecasters? If one looks at the forecast record of the IMF and the Fed over the past several decades, one will not find any case in which a year of positive growth was followed by a year of contraction in which...

While most U.S. data has been relatively upbeat, retail sales rose less than expected in October, suggesting a slowdown in consumer spending that could temper expectations of a strong pickup in fourth-quarter economic growth. In the meantime, Britain's Bank of England was once pegged as likely to be the first major central bank to tighten policy but prices fell again last month, data will probably show on Tuesday. With inflation so far below its 2 percent target the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee won't be raising its benchmark rate from a record low 0.5 percent until at least April, a Reuters...

The double-digit stock-market rebound after a bruising summer has put European shares back into positive territory for the year, but sentiment around the central-bank-fueled rally remains fragile. Weak trading volumes, a so-far disappointing earnings season and a focus on reliable dividend payouts rather than blockbuster growth have all contributed to the view that investors are being sucked into a market updraft rather than enthusiastically betting on a cyclical upturn. Even with European shares getting a fresh lift from a weaker euro on Friday - after U.S. data smashed expectations and fueled bets on tighter U.S. rate policy in contrast with...

In 2008 central banks, led by the Federal Reserve, rode to the rescue of the global financial system. Seven years on and trillions of dollars later they no longer have the answers and may even represent a major risk for the global economy. A report by the Group of Thirty, an international body led by former European Central Bank chief Jean-Claude Trichet, warned on Saturday that zero rates and money printing were not sufficient to revive economic growth and risked becoming semi-permanent measures. "Central banks have described their actions as 'buying time' for governments to finally resolve the crisis... But...

Global debt levels are dangerously high and central banks cannot keep the game going indefinitely, warns the high priest of orthodoxy Debt ratios have reached extreme levels across all major regions of the global economy, leaving the financial system acutely vulnerable to monetary tightening by the US Federal Reserve, the world's top financial watchdog has warned. The Bank for International Settlements said the wild market ructions of recent weeks and capital outflows from China are warning signs that the massive build-up in credit is coming back to haunt, compounded by worries that policymakers may be struggling to control events. "We...

The European Central Bank proudly announced on Friday that it is erecting a 17-metre-high bronze and granite tree outside its Frankfurt headquarters – an artwork intended to “convey a sense of stability and growth” – and, with its gilded leaves and massive trunk, presumably also wealth and power. But when Mario Draghi, the ECB’s president, appeared before the world’s media on Thursday at his regular press conference, it was the limit to central bankers’ power that was on display. Draghi was forced to admit that the outlook for eurozone growth and inflation had darkened considerably as a result of the...

While many continue to debate if what with every passing day increasingly looks like a global recession, one from which the US will not decouple no matter how many "virtual portfolio" asset managers claim the contrary, there are those who without much fanfare are already taking proactive steps to avoid the kind of fallout that the markets have hinted in the past month of trading, is inevitable. Some such as Calstrs: the nation's second largest pension fund with $191 billion in assets (smaller only than Calpers), which as the WSJ reports is "considering a significant shift away from some stocks...

Like children clinging to their parents, stock market traders turned to their central banks last week as they sought protection from the frightening economic figures coming out of China. Surely, they asked, the central banks would ward off the approaching bogeymen, as they had so many times since the 2008 crash. The US Federal Reserve came up with the goods. William Dudley, president of the bank’s New York branch, hinted that the interest rate rise many had expected next month was likely to be delayed. A signal that borrowing costs would remain at rock bottom was all it took. After...

To wit, artificial suppression of free market interest rates by the central bank is designed to cause households to borrow more money than they otherwise would in order to spend more than they earn, pure and simple. Its nothing more than a modernized version of the original, crude Keynesian pump-priming theory—–except it dispenses with the inconvenience of getting politicians to approve spending increases and tax cuts in favor of the writ of a small posse of unelected monetary mandarins who run the FOMC and peg money market interest rates at will. But the whole enterprise is a crock. The consumer...

NEW YORK, August 24, 2015 — Global Finance magazine has named the heads of the Central Banks of the Czech Republic, the European Union, India, Israel, Malaysia, Paraguay, Peru, the Philippines, and Taiwan as the World’s Best Central Bankers over the past year, in recognition of their achievement of a prestigious “A” grade on Global Finance’s Central Banker Report Cards. August 24, 2015 In addition, the Central Bankers of Colombia, Saudi Arabia and the United States earned “A-” grades. The Central Banker Report Cards, published annually by Global Finance since 1994, grade the central bank governors of nearly 75 key...

China currency devaluation signals endgame leaving equity markets free to collapse under the weight of impossible expectations“Men’s hearts failing them for fear, and for looking after those things which are coming on the earth: for the powers of heaven shall be shaken.” Luke 21:26 (KJV) When the banking crisis crippled global markets seven years ago, central bankers stepped in as lenders of last resort. Profligate private-sector loans were moved on to the public-sector balance sheet and vast money-printing gave the global economy room to heal. Time is now rapidly running out. From China to Brazil, the central banks have lost...

In all this talk about whether the economy will be strong enough to support the first policy change of this cycle, and how utterly sad it is to even have to argue about it, the larger issues about the exact operational framework remain largely unexamined. The intent of the FOMC is to undergo an orderly transition from extraordinary policy positions toward a setting more like normal. To go from A to B is not as simple as plugging in a new number, a fact that Federal Reserve officials are very quietly dealing with. The Fed has a repo problem, one...

Sweden's central bank took its key interest rate further into negative territory Wednesday in a surprise move aimed at supporting a return to inflation. Related Stories Sweden cuts key rate again to record minus 0.25 pct Associated Press India's central bank cuts key interest rate Associated Press German central bank: ECB stimulus means less reform pressure Associated Press European Central Bank leaves rates unchanged; await QE details MarketWatch The currency wars have begun MarketWatch The Riksbank cut its repo rate by 0.15 percentage points to -0.25 percent and said it was buying government bonds worth 30 billion kronor ($3.4 billion,...

The Bank of Israel lowered its benchmark interest rate on Monday to an all-time low of 0.1 percent on Monday. The move came as a surprise, after 11 of 12 economists polled by Reuters had expected the central bank to stand pat. The central bank cut the rate to signal its determination to push back against the negative inflation holding down the market towards its intended annual target of one to three percent. Lowering the interest rate theoretically leads to an increase in demand within the market and helps increase prices towards the inflation target which the Bank of Israel...

On Thursday morning, the European Central Bank surprised markets with a raft of stimulative measures including cuts in interest rates and the commencement of asset purchases. The news sent the euro currency much lower, but currency expert Boris Schlossberg of BK Asset Management identifies another reason why the euro could call even further: fresh concerns over a European Union breakup. ECB president Mario Draghi, in announcing the measures, mentioned that the vote was not unanimous. The strongest economy in the eurozone, Germany, is widely expected to have dissented. "It's a very, very tenuous union in many ways, and we see...

Never in my 30+ year career as a market observer have I seen so many out on a limb which is about to be SAWED OFF. Those who live within the matrix are fully loaded for a recovery which is not and will not appear. Nominally the Main stream media can proclaim ECONOMIC recovery has arrived, point to the rising developed world stock markets, seemingly benign bond markets of all categories: sovereign, investment grade and Junk, Private equity, corporate buy backs and more have priced in “Happy Days are here again”. HFT, unrestrained leverage in a financially repressed world and...

Last week, St. Louis Fed Director of Research David Andolfatto released a presentation on Bitcoin, becoming one of the most prominent central bank officials to study the cryptocurrency. We caught up with Andolfatto to ask him about why he put this deck together, where he thinks Bitcoin is going, and whether he personally has anything invested in it. Business Insider: What was the genesis for this presentation? David Andolfatto: Its genesis was a blog post I'd started, addressing arguments that gold bugs frequently put forth, that gold is superior money. Of course, Bitcoin was in the news — I read...

What Kind of Fools Are Buying Gold? Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013 June 23, 2013 - 08:55 PM GMT By: Jesse On the whole, the world's central banks are now net buyers of gold, and have been for some time, after being net sellers for over twenty years. Russia is one example. Why do you think they are buying it? They don't understand money? They don't know what they, and some of their associated central banks, are planning to do to recapitalize the deteriorating global financial system and dollar reserve trade regime? Did they forget to watch CNBC to...

Yesterday afternoon, following the rout in the US stock market, we made a spurious preview (TWITTER) of the true main event: SO SELL OFF IN JGBS TONIGHT? We had no idea how right we would be because the second Japan opened, its bond futures market was halted on a circuit breaker as the 10 Year bond plunged to their lowest level since early 2012, hitting 1% and leading to massive Mark to Market losses for Japanese banks, as we also warned would happen. That was just the beginning, and suddenly the realization crept in that the plunging yen at this...

It was a year of many records for the gold market. No, gold prices didn’t reach an absolute record high in 2012 as some had forecasted, but it was still a year of many records for the gold market, according to the World Gold Council’s latest Demand Trends report. In fact, gold prices averaged $1722 during the last three months of the year, the WGC said. That’s a record quarterly price. Unfortunately for bulls, gold demand on a volume basis didn’t reach a record. Indeed, it fell by 4 percent to 4,406 metric tons. However, on a value basis, annual...