Just been chatting with a close friend who is Ukranian.
It seems like what has happened is this.
There are two “breakaway” regions in Ukraine - Donetsk and Luhansk.
There have been warring factions in these two regions since at least 2014. Right now the lines of demarcation are roughly right down the middle as far as boots on the ground go.
Putin today said he was going to recognize the lines of demarcation **as they currently exist**.
This turns out to be a move towards **de-escalation**. Had he said he would recognize the regions according to their original borders that would have favored **escalation**. But he did not do that.
Now the sanctions that appear to be announced here are not the “doomsday” sanctions - they are more like “slap on the wrist” sanctions.
So it looks to me (and my friend) that a deal was cut and that the world has stepped back from the precipice.
More fear porn. Be afraid, be very afraid. Just know that the gubmint and its ever helpful media will be here for you telling you to “shelter in place”.