Free Republic

Nate Silver, the founder and former editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, released his election model on Wednesday, showing former President Donald Trump with a two in three chance to win the White House. Silver, who exited FiveThirtyEight in 2023, released the model entitled, “The presidential election isn’t a toss-up” on his Substack at natesilver.net. According to a screenshot of what appears to be a paywalled portion of the forecast that has gone viral on X, Silver gives Trump a robust 65.7 percent chance to win the White House in November.

After Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY)’s primary defeat in New York, a second Squad member could be in trouble, according to a new poll that shows Rep. Cori Bush (D-MO)’s opponent, Wesley Bell, pulling ahead. The poll, conducted by Democrat pollster Mark Mellman’s group and published by Politico, showed that Bell has overcome a double-digit deficit to pull ahead of Bush. Bell, St. Louis County’s prosecuting attorney, is only one percentage point ahead of Bush, but analysis by the group said Bell’s image is improving, while Bush’s is moving in a negative direction, “leaving him with an underlying image advantage.”

CNN commentator Adam Kinzinger said Wednesday in “Newsroom” that he endorsed President Joe Biden over former President Donald Trump because he wanted voters to put decency above political differences. Kinzinger said, “I think it’s really important for people to understand, particularly the 20% of, let’s just call them the 20% of Haley voters for them to understand that this is a stark choice. This isn’t just who do I agree with more on certain issues. I actually don’t even really know where Donald Trump stands on many issues but this is about does democracy survive the way we love it,...

Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said the House Judiciary Committee plans to file a lawsuit to force Attorney General Merrick Garland to turn over audio recordings of President Biden’s interview with special counsel Robert Hur. The suit would be the latest effort to secure the tapes after the Justice Department informed Congress it would not be bringing criminal charges against Garland despite a House vote to hold him in contempt.

Climate change alarmists are reacting to recent warm weather, pointing to global warming as the monster belching summer heat. “Summer is quickly becoming the season of grim extremes,” writes Evan Bush for NBC News, citing “record heat” across the Northeast, “flooding” in the Midwest, and a “tropical storm” in Texas. While hesitant to attribute any particular weather-related incident to global warming, the article goes on to contend that the “specter of climate change lurks behind many of the recent events.”

Non-citizens, migrants, and illegal aliens will be permitted to apply for a driver’s license in Illinois starting on July 1. Illinois Democrat Gov. J.B. Pritzker signed HB 3882 in June of last year to allow all migrants to get a state driver’s license, and the law is about to go into effect. “This legislation is a significant step in eliminating the barriers to opportunity that many undocumented immigrants face,” Pritzker said when he signed the legislation last year. “We’re ensuring every eligible individual can obtain a driver’s license, making our roads safer, decreasing stigma, and creating more equitable systems for...

New York’s top congressional Democrat is phoning in support for embattled “Squad” Rep. Jamaal Bowman. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries recorded a robocall praising the controversial Bowman as “a public servant who fights for economic justice and in defense of historically underrepresented communities,” a source familiar with the move told The Post. But the last-minute robocall came as too little, too late for some lefty supporters of Bowman, who faces a well-heeled challenge in Tuesday’s primary from Westchester County Executive George Latimer. Jeffries, other than the robocall and an endorsement in March, has done little else to help Bowman’s campaign,...

Former Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) lambasted the Supreme Court amid its ethics controversies, raising the question of whether Chief Justice John Roberts has “gone rogue.” Asked in an interview on CNN whether she has confidence in the high court, Pelosi said, “No.” “I think they’ve gone rogue,” she replied. “It’s most unfortunate.” “But it’s unfortunate further to see what the other justices … what happened to the chief justice? Did he go weak? Or, did he go rogue? I don’t know,” Pelosi added. The Supreme Court has faced increased scrutiny over the past year following a series of reports detailing...

Hooters has closed dozens of locations as inflation continues choking people and businesses in President Joe Biden’s America. A Hooters spokesperson told the New York Post on Monday, “Like many restaurants under pressure from current market conditions, Hooters has made the difficult decision” to shut down some of its restaurants. Approximately 40 of its 300 restaurants across the globe have been closed. However, the company has been opening locations for American consumers and others all over the world, while also offering its frozen foods on the shelves of grocery stores.

Seattle officials have opened up city police jobs to illegal aliens in the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program. With the Seattle Police Department (SPD) at its lowest staffing level in decades, officials in city hall are looking to take advantage of a recently passed state law that allows jurisdictions to hire non-citizens as police officers. The Democrat-dominated state legislature recently passed Senate Bill 6157, a law that allows jurisdictions to give DACA recipients police powers. One reason the bill was needed is because so many liberal cities have wiped out their police departments with Black Lives Matter (BLM)...

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is set to offer a “warning to all American voters” in an upcoming book, according to a Tuesday press release. “For the first time, she shares the story of her operation to evacuate Afghan women to safety in the harrowing final days of America’s longest war,” reads the press release from Simon & Schuster announcing the book, “Something Lost, Something Gained: Reflections on Life, Love, and Liberty.” “But we also meet the brave women dissidents defying dictators around the world, gain new personal insights about her old adversary Vladimir Putin, and learn the best...

CLAIM: White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre claimed Tuesday that grocery prices went down under President Joe Biden’s leadership. VERDICT: False. “Food prices jumped 6.3% in 2021, and 10.4% in 2022. In 2023, food-price increases slowed, with the index up 2.7%,” TheStreet reported. To put that in perspective, Yahoo News reported that “a basket of groceries that cost $100 in November 2020 would now set you back $125.80.” Prices continue to rise despite the slowing rate of inflation.

Federal, state and local officials are focusing their efforts on a voluntary evacuation of Dakota Dunes and a levee construction project across Interstate 29 near McCook Lake as they continue responding to historic rainfall and flooding in southeast South Dakota that has claimed at least one life. Gov. Kristi Noem led a press conference Sunday in North Sioux City. She shared news of the death but declined to provide any information about the person, circumstances or location, other than saying the death was related to flooding. “Because of respect for the family, I’m not going to share any details around...

Two-time failed presidential candidate Hillary Clinton used an op-ed Tuesday to publicly swoon over President Joe Biden ahead of the first presidential debate of 2024. Her gushing piece in the New York Times heaped unstinting praise and flattery on “decent” Biden while dismissing Trump as “a convicted criminal out for revenge.” After opening the essay talking about herself and her times at the debating podium, Clinton quickly waded into Trump by defining his character as somehow less than worthy of high office compared with his octogenarian opponent.

CHICAGO - A 16-year-old boy has been charged with murder in connection with the death of a 73-year-old retired Chicago police officer. Chicago Police Supt. Larry Snelling along with Chief of Detectives Antoinette Ursitti and Cook County State’s Attorney Kim Foxx announced Monday night that the teen faces first-degree murder charges. He will be charged as an adult.

MSNBC contributor Claire McCaskill said Monday on “Deadline” that former President Donald Trump will have to “make up &_&_” about the debate if he loses. McCaskill said, “I really think that what Joe Biden said is not as important as how he says it. And by the way Trump has set up expectations for this in a way that really helped Biden. Trump has spent the last six months convincing America that Joe Biden can’t walk or talk. He has spent the last six months convincing America that this is an addled brain. So Joe Biden is going to show...

A German police officer escorting Prime Minister Viktor Orbán in Stuttgart has died after a car rammed into the Hungarian leader’s convoy. While on the way Monday to the airport after watching his national football team compete against Scotland in the UEFA European Championship in Stuttgart, Germany the previous night, Prime Minister Orbán’s motorcade was hit with tragedy. According to a report from the German daily Bild, a 69-year-old woman ignored signs for road closures as the Hungarian leader’s convoy made its way through the city, ramming into the police motorcycle of a 61-year-old officer accompanying Orbán’s car. The strength...

A US bankruptcy court trustee is planning to shut down conspiracy theorist Alex Jones’ Infowars media platform and liquidate its assets to help pay the $1.5 billion in lawsuit judgments Jones owes for repeatedly calling the 2012 Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting a hoax. In an “emergency” motion filed Sunday in Houston, trustee Christopher Murray indicated publicly for the first time that he intends to “conduct an orderly wind-down” of the operations of Infowars’ parent company and “liquidate its inventory.” Murray, who was appointed by a federal judge to oversee the assets in Jones’ personal bankruptcy case, did not give...

“We know only too well that war comes not when the forces of freedom are strong but when they are weak,” declared Ronald Reagan at the 1980 Republican National Convention. “It is then that tyrants are tempted,” he added, summing up his conviction that peace could only be secured through strength. Until Donald Trump followed in Reagan’s footsteps as the GOP’s standard-bearer, this formulation was axiomatic on the American right. But Trump’s careless rhetoric — which often flirted with isolationism and flattered America’s sworn enemies in Moscow and Pyongyang — emboldened the Republican Party’s isolationist wing. In an op-ed endorsing...

Thursday’s presidential debate is “not the ideal arena for live fact-checking” former President Donald Trump, CNN political director David Chalian warned potential viewers Monday. CNN’s coverage of Trump often includes network personnel attempting to fact-check Trump in real time or trying to fact-check him immediately after live coverage ends. CNN’s Kaitlan Collins was widely criticized last year for failing to successfully fact-check Trump during her town hall event. The audience cheered Trump’s performance, while Republicans lauded Trump’s delivery as one of the best by the former president. Chalian, who believes Trump “doesn’t get the benefit of the doubt on words,”...