Freedom's in 2nd Place?

The New York Times ^ | 29 Aug | NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF

[Cronos]

Freedom's in 2nd Place? By NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF

ARAPCHIV, Ukraine — This is the story of two villages, half a world apart. One is this hamlet in southern Ukraine, where my roots lie. The other is my wife's ancestral village, in the Taishan area of Guangdong Province in southern China.

In the late 1980's and early 1990's, the two countries took diametrically opposite paths. Ukraine and most other constituents of the deceased Soviet Union giddily held presidential elections and pronounced themselves democracies, while China massacred protesters demanding more freedom and democracy.

I wish I could say that free elections pay better dividends than massacres. But, although it hurts to say so, in this case it looks the other way around.

Here in Karapchiv, villagers are reasonably free to say what they like about their leaders, but Ukraine is further than ever from having the broad middle class that normally sustains a healthy democracy. There are no jobs, some peasants spend their entire day leading a cow around on a rope to graze, and Karapchiv lacks any factory to take advantage of labor that can cost as little as $1 a day.

In contrast, my wife's village is bustling, along with the rest of Guangdong. Factories have sprouted everywhere, and teenagers brandish cellphones the way they used to wave Mao's "Little Red Book."

Since 1989, when the Soviet Union opened fire on Communism and China opened fire on its citizens, China's economy has tripled in size — and Ukraine's has shrunk by half.

Even in Russia, according to Izvestia, 40 percent of the people can't afford toothpaste; in Karapchiv, many can't afford toilet paper and make do with newspapers (which to me seems sacrilegious). Meanwhile, prospering China has become a global center for cosmetic surgery.

I was as outraged as anyone that Chinese troops massacred hundreds of protesters to destroy the Tiananmen democracy movement. But China's long economic boom has cut child mortality rates so much since 1990 that an additional 195,000 children under the age of 5 survive each year.

Does this mean that the Chinese are better off for having had their students shot? No, of course not. But it does mean that authoritarian orderliness is sometimes more conducive to economic growth than democratic chaos.

For example, two of the nastiest and least reformed countries in the former Soviet empire are Belarus and Uzbekistan. As an excellent (and somewhat rueful) World Bank report on the ex-Soviet Union's first decade notes, those are also the two countries that best weathered the post-Communist recessions.

As I compare Karapchiv with my wife's village, though, it seems to me that the best explanation for the different paths of China and the former Soviet Union is not policy but culture. I'm sure I'll regret saying this, but there really is something to the caricature that if you put two Americans in a room together, they'll sue each other; put two Japanese in a room together, and they'll start apologizing to each other; two Chinese will do business; and two Ukrainians or Russians will sit down over a bottle of liquor.

The moment the Chinese government began to debate the future of the communes more than two decades ago, peasants in Guangdong took matters into their own hands and divided up the land to farm their own plots. In contrast, even today the old Kristof farmland in Karapchiv is still part of a state farm, run by Petro Makarchuk, an amiable director in a white shirt over a potbelly; he still insists that state farms are the way to go.

Most farmers in Karapchiv do now farm their own plots, but some, like Vasyl Hutsul, have remained in the local collective farm. "I'm just waiting for my retirement pension," he explained, with a lassitude and complacency that one rarely sees in Guangdong.

Our old family home is now a school, and the principal, Anatoly Marianchuk, fretted about the lack of initiative to start new capitalist ventures. "It's a question of psychology," he said moodily. "The old system is breaking down, but slowly."

Ultimately, after my visit here, I still don't feel I fully understand why China has done so well and the former Soviet Union so poorly. But I am filled with one overpowering emotion: I'm so grateful to my father, and to my wife's grandparents, for leaving behind all that was familiar to them in two villages half a world apart, and thus bequeathing us the gift of America.

[Cronos]

Hmmm.... seems true, contrast China with the former Eastern bloc states or India and even though the latter are democracies, they aren't doing quite as well as totalitarian China.

[EggsAckley]

"it does mean that authoritarian orderliness is sometimes more conducive to economic growth than democratic chaos."

Wow! Now THERE'S an interesting statement.

[Only1choice____Freedom]

I wish I could say that free elections pay better dividends than massacres.

At least the voters survived the process.

Even a gilded cage is still a cage.

[Question_Assumptions]

Yes, I'm sure the 30 million people starved by Mao and the 20 million Ukranians starved by Stalin would all tell you that socialism was better than freedom. This guy is an idiot.

[=Intervention=]

This analysis is preposterously shallow. How efficient is China, is the question? Sure, you can have a modicum of outward properity if you choose and if you have enough money to throw around. He's also left out the tendency of Communist countries to show their best face to the world and hide the poor, the sick, the dying, etc. Talk about a Potemkin village. This guy was swindled hook, line, and sinker.

[scocha]

No mention is made of the fact that it is not marxism but private enterprise within an authoritarian political regime that accounts for China's relative prosperity. No mention of the enormous cultural/historical differences between China and the Ukraine. China had a thriving entrepreneurial class until 1949. The Ukraine, from the Mongols to serfdom to Lenin, has had almost no experience with economic or political freedom. It remains to be seen if the Ukraine's dabbling in democracy will take root. It seems clear that China's experiment with the free market will.

[Cronos]

He's also left out the tendency of Communist countries to show their best face to the world and hide the poor, the sick, the dying, etc.

WEll, but it works doesn't it? Our govt makes a commie nation it's Most Favoured TRading partner and leaves struggling democracies like India and hte Phillipines. Totalitarianism might work, horrible, but maybe true.

[jae471]

China had one thing the USSR did not have -- trade with the US. China would be nothing but a giant Cambodia if it wasn't for Nixon. Had a similar turn of events occured in the Soviet Union, Communism would still be alive there, because Gorbachev's reforms would have never occured, and Yelstin wouldn't have been able to dissolve the Union (He was barely able to do it in 1991. He had to get the presidents of Belarus, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan very drunk before he got them to agree to dissolve the Union).

If the USSR had been doing the kind of trade with the US that communist China was doing in 1991, then at least Russia, Kazakhstan, and the Ukraine would be quite well off right now.

Also, what has really changed in Russia? Yelstin was president of Russia (Russia, not the Soviet Union) how many years before the fall, and how many after? Putin was a Commie. Everyone in power in that country has strong ties to the Communist Party.

All that said, the problem in the Ukraine isn't democracy. The Ukraine has not been more than nominally independant in the last few hundred years. They were always a puppet of Moscow, wether under Stalin, under Catherine, or under Yelstin. The same goes for many other post-soviet countries. Look at the mess in Germany, thanks to unification. Belarus, Kazahkstan, Georgia. Even Yugoslavia, who was the most western (politically) of the Communist countries (and the probably the best country to make the author's point, instead of the Ukraine).

Now look at the positives -- Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovokia, and the Baltic States (all of which tried throwing off the shackles of Socialism prior to the fall). Mongolia is another, and they knew they didn't know how to run things, so they got help in establishing their constitution, stock exchanges, and trade compacts from the United States. Now they are one of the most stable Post-Soviet countries.

The author is comparing two entities, without even looking at all the data in those two -- "The economy is great in China, but sucks in the CIS; I guess dictatorship work better than democracy."

I'll take a larger sample size, or at least a more thorough analysis of the two.

[RussianConservative]

This BS. First Russia and average Russian doing very well now...or much better then before and better then Ukraine...consider Russia now feed Ukraine. As for Chinae, what you see is what? 1% maybe 2% population...now that still 200 some million but that make over 1 billion live in abject missery and poverty.

[RussianConservative]

20 million ukrainians? Maybe 200 million ukrainians? Stalin total is around 30 million, far from all Ukrainians...Stalin kill kulaks, he kill 7 million in Russia, 5 million in Ukraine and 2 million in Belaruss. Please, these silly exaggeration grow sillier every telling. As for Mao he kill 60 million in Cultural Revolutin and Great Leap Forward.

[RussianConservative]

That Yelstin dissolve Union was crime against all citizens. Soviet system still not survive, Russians not robotic Chinese but much more individual...note dress, where Russians dress in Soviet Times in identical pajamas? Now for disolving it nothing but move by many Soviet politicians to make little kingdoms for selves and in process with no hold on ambition to steal everything they could..aka oligarchs. Look at peoples who run central asia or caucuses for example.

[Question_Assumptions]

Thanks for the correction. The point is still that Stalin killed millions, including millions in the Ukraine. I presume you don't believe that socialism is the bargain that those in the article seem to be claiming it is, right?

[Cronos]

China had one thing the USSR did not have -- trade with the US

Well, there's no use blaming Nixon when we do the same thing every time we buy a chicom made item....

[Cronos]

Yes, I'm sure the 30 million people starved by Mao and the 20 million Ukranians starved by Stalin would all tell you that socialism was better than freedom. This guy is an idiot.

Well, the point is that totalitarianism does secure the future at times -- witness Singapore or chile -- by robbing the present to pay for the future. Now, I'm not saying that's correct, but just that it seems to work, witness China, or at least actual china, i.e. the Han part, not imperial China which rules over the Tibetans, Mongols and Uighurs.

[Question_Assumptions]

Well, the point is that totalitarianism does secure the future at times -- witness Singapore or chile -- by robbing the present to pay for the future.

Neither Singapore nor Chile are what I would call "socialist states" and for every Singapore or Chile, I can point you to a Cambodia or Cuba. The main problem with totalitarianism is the same problem that monarchies have -- they are essentially cults of personality and no reliable mechanism exists to transition peacefully from one totalitarian ruler (or monarch) to another and no reliable mechanism exists to guarantee that the next ruler will be good.

Yes, a good ruler can do good things but the problem with "pay[ing] for the future" is that the future can fall apart during regime changes. But I think the bigger problem is socialism, which seems to attract murderous thugs into its ranks, thus making it likely that you'll get a bad ruler.

As for China, I know how bad things were under Cheng Kai Shek but Mao was not a good ruler. Not only did he kill tens of millions of Chinese through starvation and other means but the Cultural Revolution was a model for what the Khmer Rouge did in Cambodia.

Of course I will admit that democracy is not a cure-all, either. Democracy in the hands of tribal people who cannot put their country about their tribe can also be a real disaster.

[Cronos]

and 12 years on, it looks apparent