Computer Models Forecast Sharp Increase In Temperature If Heat-trapping Emissions Continue To Rise

www.sciencedaily.com ^ | 02-17-2003

[boris]

LINK

Source:
American Association For The Advancement Of Science

Date: 2003-02-17

Computer Models Forecast Sharp Increase In Temperature If Heat-trapping Emissions Continue To Rise

DENVER, CO –- Powerful computer models predict that winter temperatures in the polar regions of the world could rise as much as 10 degrees centigrade in the next hundred years, if no efforts are made to control production of carbon dioxide, methane and other gasses.

“With projections to the year 2100, we can show what will happen if we continue with business as usual—if we don’t do anything to curb emissions of greenhouse gasses,” said Warren M. Washington, senior research scientist for the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and a speaker at the AAAS Annual Meeting.

Noting that concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane did not start to increase significantly until the 20th century, Washington demonstrated with charts and graphs worldwide projections for average temperature in 2050 and 2090, and compared the data to the relatively stable temperature pattern in the 1000 years that preceded the growing presence of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere.

“The greatest warming takes place in the winter hemisphere, and is strongly influenced by the retreat of snow and ice in high latitudes,” said Washington, who is also chairman of the National Science Board. “The range of (computer) models for global climate change at end of the century is 1.5 to 6 degrees centigrade, with most of the models in the range of 2-4 degrees. In the polar regions the changes of the order of 8 to more than 10 degrees in the winter time of the years.”

The computer predictions, produced by the NCAR Parallel Climate Model and by other computer systems, are made by interpreting data gathered on sea ice, land-vegetation, ocean and atmospheric components of the climate system, and creating an interactive system for understanding how they work together to influence the earth’s climate.

“The atmospheric, ocean and sea ice components make use of the fundamental laws of physics,” Washington said. “In the atmosphere, for example, equations describe the wind, temperature, density and pressure relationships. Climate models require supercomputer capability to solve the complex interactive mathematical equations.”

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The American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) is the world’s largest general scientific society, and publisher of the journal, Science. Founded in 1848, AAAS serves 134,000 members as well as 272 affiliates, representing 10 million scientists.

[boris]

World Climate Report Online

This issue, we present the NASA satellite measurements of the past year’s annual average temperature anomalies—the difference between the observed values and the 1979–1998 mean values. Global satellite measurements are made from a series of orbiting platforms that sense the average temperature in various atmospheric layers. Here, we present the lowest level, which matches nearly perfectly with the mean temperatures measured by weather balloons in the layer between 5,000 and 28,000 feet. The satellite measurements are considered accurate to within 0.01°C and provide more uniform coverage of the entire globe than surface measurements, which tend to concentrate over land.

2002: The annual global average temperature departure was 0.24°C; the Northern Hemisphere temperature departure was 0.25°C; and the Southern Hemisphere departure was 0.23°C. In both hemispheres (and for the globe as a whole), the year 2002 was the second-warmest year on record, cooler only than the remarkable El-Niño–induced warmth of 1998.

Below: Annual satellite temperature departures for the entire globe (top), the Northern Hemisphere (middle), and the Southern Hemisphere (bottom). Trend lines indicate statistically significant changes.

[dfwgator]

if no efforts are made to control production of carbon dioxide, methane and other gasses.

I hereby order a moratorium on farting. That ought to do the trick. Where's my Nobel Prize?

[talleyman]

I think they need to look out the windows & rework their models

[r9etb]

I don't suppose these folks bothered to check their model against the past?

[INSENSITIVE GUY]

YEA!RIGHT!Somebody should tell this scientist to go outside once in awhile.Anybody can make up a phony graph and you can bet that's exactly what this is.

[genew]

Garbage in...

[boris]

"I don't suppose these folks bothered to check their model against the past?"

The World Climate Report used to plot the computer models on the same graphs as actual temperatures.

Apparently they were threatened by the computer modelers on copyright(?) basis and had to stop.

Was just too funny for words.

--Boris

[ArcLight]

Powerful computer models predict that winter temperatures in the polar regions of the world could rise as much as 10 degrees centigrade in the next hundred years...

Oooh. Powerful computer models! Not like those week ones we used last year! Oh no! These are different. These are powerful!

[AmericaUnited]

GIGO

[Publius6961]

First thing that popped into my mind is the old definition of insanity.
The second was the danger of extrapolation, as hilariously explained by Mark Twin in Life on the Mississippi.

And finally was the resigned recollection of GIGO.
Computer models: garbage in, garbage out.

Must be grants application time again?

[Poser]

I don't know about the rest of the hemisphere, but up here in NH, this has been the coldest winter since about 1965. I guess the chart needs to take a sharp turn to the south.

Egads!! There's an ICE AGE coming!!!

[FateAmenableToChange]

Powerful computer models predict that winter temperatures in the polar regions of the world could rise as much as 10 degrees centigrade in the next hundred years, if no efforts are made to control production of carbon dioxide, methane and other gasses.

In other news, Joe - that guy with grease stains on his shirt and the beer in his hand who lives upstairs - predicts that winter temperatures are going to stay cold and summer temperatures are going to stay hot, and that the secret to success is learning how to keep the hot side hot and the cold side cold. Climate specialists immediately attacked Joe as overly focused on facts and actual observed phenomenon.

[Poser]

I don't know about the rest of the hemisphere, but up here in NH, this has been the coldest winter since about 1965. I guess the chart needs to take a sharp turn to the south.

Egads!! There's an ICE AGE coming!!!

[jpl]

This isn't a particularly good winter for Watermelons.

[Springman]

WHAT DO WE WANT, GLOBAL WARMING,
WHEN DO WE WANT IT,
NOW!!!!!!!

[Fitzcarraldo]

Just look at the noise in that data.

I'd be more inclined to let Nature take its course, rather than let Ecolism dictate consumption policy. For all we know such policies could lead to destructive positive feedback loops that would be even more damaging.

[tje]

Lets not confuse the word 'powerful' with accurate, based in reality, or truthful...

[dufekin]

I've seen this guy myself, and it seems as though he's out to show global warming. Plenty of computer models and evidence exists for this position, but equally much, if not more, supports the contrary position. If you're out there trying to show something, you'll find it.

Oh, by the way, all this snow is a predictable result of global warming, according to some. You see, if you're trying to illustrate global warming, you use everything available to you, even if it seems to suggest the opposite on its face. Five years from now, if the earth's average temperature has plunged by a full degree or two, global warming mongers will use that as "evidence" of global warming.

I've heard that 20 years ago, global cooling was all the rage. Will it be that way 20 years from now? We'll just have to wait and see, eh?

[Blue Collar Christian]

That would ruin about half my jokes!

[45Auto]

The most powerful computer in the world cannot collect and enter its own data. Therfore, the whole premise rests upon the nature of the input. High-energy particle physicists will tell you that "to observe a process is to affect that process." So even these so-called "scientists" could enter just the data needed to verify their theory. Computer modelling is just a rough approximation. Besides, these geeks have not considered the periodicity of the past ice ages. They could be in for a suprise.