Posted on 11/10/2002 5:58:34 AM PST by Oldeconomybuyer
BATON ROUGE - Louisiana Democrats have a longstanding formula for winning a statewide race: get 95 percent of the black vote and 30 percent of the white vote, and you're in.
But the only way that formula works is if Democrats can get high-profile black leaders to use their organizations to get black voters to the polls on behalf of their candidates.
That did not happen in Tuesday's U.S. Senate primary election and will be a key issue for U.S. Sen. Mary Landrieu to address if she hopes to retain her seat in the Dec. 7 runoff.
"If Mary had gotten the African-American vote that (U.S. Rep.) Chris John got, she would have won," said U.S. Sen. John Breaux, also a Democrat, in a post-election analysis.
To win in the runoff, Landrieu must meet with those black leaders who were lukewarm to her in the primary, Breaux said, specifically mentioning state Sens. Cleo Fields,
D-Baton Rouge, Greg Tarver, D-Shreveport, and Don Cravins, D-Lafayette.
Fields, who ran against Landrieu and beat her early in the 1993 governor's race, did nothing in the primary, and at this point says he's not sure what he will do with his organization in the runoff. "I don't know if I will be up and running on election day," Fields said.
His beef is that Landrieu and white Democrats in general "take the black vote for granted," Fields said. He also was turned off by Landrieu's running commercials talking about her support for Republican President George Bush.
"One Republican Party is enough," Fields said.
The formula, which Fields acknowledged is the basis for Democratic gains, means Landrieu has got to figure out how to increase black turnout and still appeal to three out of every 10 whites.
Tarver said he and Cravins, who was tending to an ill mother in a Shreveport hospital, talked things over Wednesday and agreed they would talk to both Landrieu and Republican Suzanne Haik Terrell before making a decision. It is conceivable they could endorse a Republican, Tarver said.
"It would be hard, but it is not impossible," Tarver said, noting that he had endorsed the re-election of U.S. Rep. Jim McCrery, R-Shreveport, based "on what he could deliver to the black community."
"We are concerned about who can deliver services to the community and not take the black vote for granted," Tarver said. He and Cravins "agreed we would sit down and decide what we are going to do."
What Tarver and Cravins did in the primary was to put out suggested ballots in their communities that endorsed not only Landrieu but also the Rev. Henry Brown, a black New Orleans minister who got 2 percent of the primary vote.
The Democratic strategy will probably include bringing in Democratic leaders who can rally the traditional Democratic base of African-Americans, organized labor, working people, professional women and senior citizens, said state Democratic Party chairman Ben Jeffers of Baton Rouge.
The star Democrat is former President Bill Clinton, who came to New Orleans before to help energize the Democratic vote, as well as pull together African-American leaders.
But Jeffers wouldn't say whether Clinton will come this time.
"When you have people who can help energize your base, you welcome their help," Jeffers said.
Bringing in Clinton is not without risk, though, said Ed Renwick, president of the Loyola Institute of Politics in New Orleans. "Clinton can energize the black base, but he can also energize Republicans," Renwick said. "I would hate to make that decision."
Republicans are not without their African-American political stars, either. Renwick said he would expect Republicans to bring in Secretary of State Colin Powell to help Terrell.
But Terrell said at week's end there were no plans to bring in Powell, but she does expect President Bush, with whom she spoke Wednesday morning, to come, either right before or right after the President's trip to Europe later this month.
Like the Republicans, who also have to stir up their core base of supporters, the Democrats continue to look for new ways to rally the vote, Jeffers said.
However, Jeffers said, "we clearly want people like Sen. Fields, Sen. Tarver and Sen. Cravins. They have always been good Democrats and this is a clear Democrat versus Republican race, a clear philosophical race."
For Fields, it's not so clear.
"When you go to a Republican rally, you know you are at a Republican rally," Fields said. "When you go to a Democratic rally and hear people speak, you have to ask, 'Where am I?' ... Democrats need to define who they are," Fields said.
For Mary Landrieu, her appeal to white voters as having been closely aligned with the Republican vote turned off rather than out black voters.
"The first commercial out talked about how close she is to George Bush and how she votes with him 74 percent of the time," Fields said. "She just needs to come to the conclusion that she can't out-Republican the Republicans."
And then there's the whole issue of an increasingly diverse black electorate.
Louisiana black voters are becoming more independent: Each year, there is a 2 percent increase in the number of African-American voters who are registering as independents, a shift away from the Democratic Party. Fields, who works with Rev. Jesse Jackson in voter registration drives in the African-American community, said it's because younger voters are more independent philosophically.
"The Democratic party had our grandmothers and grandfathers who voted Democratic even when they didn't hear the messages they wanted to hear. Grandsons and granddaughters want to hear the message they are looking for ... and are insulted when they are taken for granted," Fields said.
"As I have said, if you don't respect us, don't expect us," Fields said. "You can't disrespect somebody and then expect them to be there for her."
Landrieu, when asked last week about what she would do to reach out to African-American voters, dodged answering, but said she would reach out to all voters as someone who can work in a nonpartisan way on behalf of all Louisiana citizens.
When pressed, she did say she would welcome the support of Sens. Fields, Tarver and Cravins, among other leaders.
"I am going to reach out to get all the support I can get," Landrieu said.
But it is a political tightrope walk for Landrieu: how to mobilize African-American votes while at the same time appeal to moderate and conservative white voters who voted for other candidates.
"Black turnout was significantly lower than white turnout," Renwick said. "She has to solve that problem."
And it won't be an easy one to solve, either.
Southern University political scientist Frank Ransburg pointed out that there are 700,000 black registered voters in Louisiana, but in the primary, Landrieu got a total vote of 572,000, white and black.
Landrieu "has to get out the black vote," Ransburg said. "They have also got to get out the labor and working people vote. That election is two and a half weeks before Christmas, on a Saturday. She is competing with Santa Claus and holiday shopping."
I view the LA runoff as a "test run" of their 2004 campaign strategy.
McAuliffe is just their bag-man and Carville an operative.
LA could show what they have planned for 2004.
One thing for certain, it ain't Al Gore. If they could kill him they would.
Gephardt can't win, neither can Daschle or Lieberman.
They will push Kerry and Edwards with Hillary on the sidelines.
Hillary is their ace-in-the-hole. FIRST WOMAN PRESIDENT! She would kill for the opportunity!
That is their strategy, and has been for years!
DUH!!! They're just now starting to figure this out? Most of the rest of us have seen it for years. Still, it is a good thing that they are finally starting to realiuze it.
That's gotta hurt. 'bout time though.
The DNC doesn't have any money left. They spent it all on attempted revenge -- trying to beat Jeb Bush and elect Ron Kirk in Texas.
Landrieu's on her own; whether she wants to be or not.
I propose that one reason is that the dopey, white, liberal female is more "manageable" whereas the intelligent, independent and articulate black male is far less vulnerable to intimidation. Combine that with the fact that this type of black male shines a spotlight on the deceptive tactics and inherent inadequacies of the "typical" black democRAT. They don't seem to want someone who will represent them nearly so much as they want someone they can manipulate. In other words, if their best and brightest are out in front, it makes the rest of them look petty, ignorant, lazy and bullish and they know that's not how to get what they want...entitlements, reparations, affirmative action forever, unchecked black dominance over the political landscape, permanent victimization status, etc.
The election is on a Saturday which will make it interesting for several reasons. First, some have proposed moving election days to the weekend and the impact on turnout will be studied. When polling is done on a weekend, the results have a Democrat edge because more Dems are sitting home doing nothing while Repubs are out and about. This is also a college game day.
Whether or not Bush might come will be interesting--and to which city--New Orleans? Baton Rouge? Don't look for Clinton and company to campaign here.
The black base turnout is critical, and Something About Mary says she won't get it. Why should they reward her when she has done nothing for them other than run against their favorite sons? Landrieu was a squeeker with a thin victory 6 years ago. Her demise has been long predicted and I was surprised she got the 47% she did.
With RNC money and a good debate performance, we might be looking at Senator #52 here. Eight more to go! Republican organization is critical here.
BINGO!! This would work big time.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.