GOP Places Bet on Louisiana [Senate] Race

"Louisiana could well be the state that provides a Bush majority in the Senate," NRSC Executive Director Mitch Bainwol said in explaining why the Republican fund-raising committee decided to intervene in a Republican primary.

"I'm shocked," said state Sen. Tony Perkins, one of Mrs. Terrell's Republican primary rivals. Mr. Perkins says Mrs. Terrell is a centrist and that only a conservative like himself can win in the state.

I appreciate your optimism

Actually, I don't have a lot of optimism for this particular race, but I still think it's worth pursuing. Just seeing the details of that poll helps me understand why the GOP feels this race is still on the table. If nothing else, the Dems may have to devote resources to LA that they weren't planning to.

You maybe correct in your analysis for the upcoming Senate race. LA politics and voting trends have changed a lot over the past few years. The Southern Triangle starting in the Alexandra area definetly has the majority vote now.

However take a look at the parish map of the 2000 Presidential race results for LA and you'll see that President Bush won statewide except for a few selected parishes. Bush won Jefferson, East Baton Rouge, and lost in Caddo.

I believe the thinking behind the NRSC's actions goes something like:

If Landrieu can be forced into a runoff, AND it turns out that control of the Senate depends on the outcome of LA's runoff, THEN massive amounts of money and media will flow into the race.

THEREFORE, the two critical aspects of this race are 1. forcing Mary into a runoff and 2. making sure the most effective candidate becomes Mary's opponent.

The NRSC has concluded that Terrell has the best chance. I'd have to say I agree with them. The DEMS and the Media would have a field day with Cooksey, but a "moderate" woman would be much more difficult to attack. (Assuming there aren't skeletons in Terrell's closet, it is Lousiana after all).

The curious thing is that Foster (a lifelong DEM until just before he filed to run for Governor), not only declines to run, but then endorses Cooksey. Enough to make a cynic wince!

"If Landrieu can be forced into a runoff, AND it turns out that control of the Senate depends on the outcome of LA's runoff, THEN massive amounts of money and media will flow into the race.

You are exactly right. If after November 5th, this seat ends up determining control of the Senate, the GOP is hoping to make it something of a National election in a state that Bush was victorious in. A month-long runoff campaign for control of the Senate, when it's the only important race in the country will make it into a media frenzy. Bush, Cheney, et. al. will be spending a lot of time down there. In my opinion, such a scenario would make this race a lot closer than people would otherwise presume it to be. I'm not saying the GOP would necessarily win; but it sure would be very interesting to watch.

A few points. Up until the 96' elections voter fraud in Orleans Parish was rampant. However, serious election reforms have been inacted in Louisiana. This is one of the reasons we didn't see a midnight run in New Orleans, like we did every election prior to 98'. What I mean is, as in the 96' election, it was typical for Orleans Parish not to report their results until all other Parishes had reported 90% or more of their prescincts (sp?). Then the Orleans Parish Fraud machine would manufacture the number of votes they required to win the election. This is what happened in 1996 and many close elections prior to 96'.

Since the reforms have taken place, Bush won Louisiana in strong fashion and New Orleans Mayor Marc Morial was unable to use his machine to alter the city charter to allow him a 3rd term. This would have been a cake walk under the old system.

Note: Suzie Terrill help enact those changes after replacing the previous currupt Demoncrap Election Commissioner, who's name I don't recall, but who is currently in prison.

I had not decided until now who I will support in the Senate Race. I was leaning towards Tony Perkins. Mainly because he appeared to have the best organization. I have been concerned, because none of the candidates appeared to have the funds needed to mount a significant campaign. However, if Suzie now has a 1/2 mill in ads to support her, she will become the front runner among the GOP hopeful and I will move my support to her camp.

Landrieu is a pox on our great state and I will puke if I see one more ad claiming Landrieu is a conservative.

With this said, here's a campaign slogan for Suzie.

"Tom, Dick and Mary, they are all the same. Put a real Louisiana Consrevative in the Senate Vote Suzie Terrill"

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