Posted on 05/20/2002 5:49:20 PM PDT by lyonesse
Here’s a blast from the past, a phrase you haven’t heard much over the last few months: "The global war against terror." You remember the origins of the phrase, of course. It was used by President George W Bush and nearly every American politician of influence to describe what America was going to do in the aftermath of September 11. It was going to go after global terrorists, no matter where they were hiding. It was going to hunt down Osama bin Laden, dismantle the terrorist base in South Asia and it was going to serve notice that the world would not tolerate any more attacks on innocent civilians.
Of course, as the Americans helpfully explained, the immediate compulsions of the war against terror were such that previously perceived Bad Guys would now be declared honorary Good Guys if they helped in hunting down ‘the evil-doers’. And if any lesser country had its own terrorist problem, then this problem should be temporarily ignored so that the world (led by the US of A) could concentrate on the Big One: the global war against terror.
Thus it was that Pervez Musharraf, previously regarded as a tinpot dictator of a failed state whose chief exports were heroin and jehad, was suddenly transformed into the respected leader of a frontline state in the global war against terror. As for the unworthy suspicion that when the good General found time to get away from brown-nosing the Americans, he devoted his time to despatching men and ammunition for the jehad in Kashmir, well, said Washington, all that would just have to wait. Once Bin Laden was captured and victory declared, then all the local problems could be attended to and the tiny little contradictions could be ironed out.
We are less than four months away from the first anniversary of September 11, and guess what: we are no nearer any substantial victory. Oh yes, the Americans declared ‘victory’ when the interim government took office in Kabul but the war against terrorism was always meant to be more than a mere coup against the Taliban regime. It was meant to be a means of ridding the world of Bin Laden, of apprehending the terrorist masterminds behind September 11 and of ridding the world of those who spread terror in the name of jehad.
The Americans may have rewritten the rules and moved the goalposts to declare victory but the truth is that the global war against terror is in an almighty mess. Last week, the Allies (basically the Royal Marines with a few Americans) declared the end of Operation Snipe, a two-week search for Al Qaeda fighters hiding in the mountains of Afghanistan.
“It is true to say that we did not encounter the enemy during this Operation,” the Brigadier commanding the Marines detachment told reporters. What he meant, of course, was that they didn’t come across a single Al Qaeda fighter during all of Operation Snipe. Considering that most of Mullah Omar’s cabinet, along with the entire Al Qaeda leadership, are all still at large, this leads to the obvious question: where the hell are they hiding?
If the Allies say that they are not in the mountains of South East Afghanistan — previously offered up by the Americans as the location to which they had all fled — then there are four possibilities. Possibility one is that they’re all dead but then somebody would have found at least one body, if not a whole graveyard. Possibility two is that the Royal Marines botched it up and that the fighters simply hid in the bushes till the Marines had passed. This does not appear likely though if this is actually what happened, then it doesn’t reflect terribly well on the conduct of the war against terror. Possibility three is that they’ve all fled to various corners of the world, in which case, we are in much deeper trouble than ever before.
And then of course, there’s the obvious one. Possibility four is that they are all hiding in Pakistan.
According to what US intelligence sources told The Washington Post last week, several hundred Al-Qaeda fighters have fled to Waziristan, the southern-most tribal agency in Pakistan. Waziristan is directly across the border from the area where Operation Snipe was conducted so it is a reasonable assumption to believe that the fighters eluded the Marines by the simple expedient of crossing the border — Pakistan will not let the Marines search its territory.
So here’s the situation as it now prevails: the US attacked Afghanistan to finish off the Al-Qaeda network, but has been unable to do so because all the people it targeted fled to Pakistan. It cannot hunt them in Pakistan because that country is an ally and Musharraf is a good guy.
But, I hear you ask, if Pakistan is an ally and Musharraf is such a wonderful chap, then why doesn’t he help the US find the terrorists?
Good question. But the Americans have no good answer. Only Musharraf has an answer. Asked by reporters if the Al-Qaeda fighters had established themselves in Waziristan, the General was categorical: "This is just out of the question, this is not possible at all, zero possibility."
Do the Americans agree with this assessment? Judging by the intelligence officials The Washington Post spoke to, clearly not. Those officials claimed that while the Pentagon had urged Pakistan to take strong action against the fighters, Islamabad was resisting.
So there you have it. America became friends with Musharraf so that it could find the Al Qaeda terrorists based in Afghanistan. But now the terrorists have taken refuge in Pakistan and are therefore free from American pursuit!
But surely, the Americans can see through this? Well, yes and so. The General has sold them the line that he’s got into lots of trouble with his own people because he’s supported America. Now, he says, if they ask him to search the tribal areas, then this trouble might get out of hand and he might even be toppled. If that happens, then America will lose a trusted ally in the global war against terror.
The circularity of the argument is self-evident: what use is an ally against terror if he doesn’t actually let you find the terrorist? Far better to let him be toppled if you can catch the people you set out to find. Why allow yourselves to be diverted from the war against terror and tricked into saving the General’s posterior?
For the moment at least, the Americans have bought the Musharraf line. They want to forget about the failure of the operation against Al Qaeda (where is bin Laden? Does anybody remember Mullah Omar?) and move on to toppling Saddam Hussein.
But this is not a situation that can be sustained. The General has calculated that if the Al Qaeda types and the assorted jehadis do nothing in Pakistan and busy themselves with killing civilians on the Indian side of the Kashmir border, then he is okay.
But there is no reason to believe that they will cooperate. The Karachi suicide bombing ten days ago which killed 11 French submarine engineers demonstrates that there are enough jehadis within Pakistan who will not agree to sit quietly. US intelligence sources say that this could be a long, hot summer of hate in Pakistan with many more such terrorist incidents.
And then, there’s the Indian angle. Flushed with their success in conning the Americans, the Pakistanis have now tried a new scam. They could find the Al Qaeda fighters, they say, if only they were able to move their troops from the Indian border. Therefore, can Washington please tell Delhi to (in Musharraf’s famous phrase) lay off?
Except, of course, that India will not lay off. We’ve suffered enough while waiting for the Americans to finish this farcical war against terror. They may have declared victory at half-time but our war goes on. As long as militants are crossing the border into Kashmir and as long as Pakistan is training and arming the jehadis, our battle with Musharraf continues.
The Americans may well claim, as Christina Rocca apparently argued last week, that Musharraf is too weak to stop the jehadis. But we must ask the question that Americans themselves are now asking. If this dictator is so weak that he actually impedes the war against terror then is he worth having as an ally to begin with?
My guess is that despite the current hysteria, there will be no war between India and Pakistan in the immediate future. Our Government damages its own credibility if it threatens an attack after every terrorist strike.
But equally, the Americans must recognise that India’s patience is running out. Musharraf may have tied them up in knots, but it is Indian women and children who are paying for American foolishness with their lives.
This sums up the Indian position well. Good find, lyonesse!
America has troops in Pakistan conducting operations against al-Qaida. That is where we captured Zahbayed, someone who is actually far more important than the insane Mullah Omar. So that part of the writer's premise is false.
It's true that it's being kept as low-key as possible, but the wisdom of that approach is rather evident.
Secondly, if the continuing attacks in Kashmir are Pakistani-approved operations, that is a very serious charge. Musharraf has pledged to stop any assistance. If India has the proof, then they should display it and then proceed to punish Pakistan in some appropriate manner. Cutting off their river water, or sending a missile into a government building would get Musharraf's attention.
But if they don't have that proof, then it's wrong to blame the US and Pakistan for all the suffering the Indians have endured. There truly is an insurgency within Kashmir of militants who live there. That part of the problem is an Indian terrorist problem, and blaming Musharraf as a convenient scapegoat is politically expedient, but rather irresponsible. So, let's see the proof.
I guess you haven't heard about the candy wrapper? ;-)
I think it is time India calls Pakistan's bluff and says, if you really have any, try to drop them on us, otherwise we are coming in and mop up your little country and make it our dependancy and protectorate.
Thanks for posting.
This is why Planet Earth is so lucky not to have you in charge of a country.
Interestingly, the article makes no mention of Powell, the most ardent admirer of Musharraff!
Other things to note are the various scissors strategies, such as, for example, ChiCOM Axes with not only Pakistan, but also with Myanmar and Laos, and recently, in a huge overturn of 1000 years of contrary tradition, Vietnam. The strategy? Isolate India from SE Asia. Give the PRC direct access to the Indian Ocean. Meanwhile, in the S. China Sea, the slow burn, under the (Western) radar screen island hopping of the PRC has in essence secured all militarily usable islands and islets and positioned PLA forces on the verge of the Strait of Malacca. In the meanwhile, the 7/16/2001 Axis agreement between Moscow and Beijing has, for the first time since the late 1950s, openly declared mutual assistance between these two in the event of ANY outside powers intervening in a PRC - Taiwan dispute. This explicitly includes interdiction of Allied forces by the Russian navy and implied ICBM cover.
Awaken from the slumber, a slumber akin to that experienced by the UK 1919 - 1939. Here we are folks!! No turning back now!! No amount of wishful thinking, appeasement or McDonalds franchises can overturn the inevitable geopolitical reality.
Indeed, few people ask themselves the origin of the pride of these people that seems to transcend rationality or the American/Western success. Beyond the tribal authorities of the region, there is an inter-tribal glue made of the racist hatred of America, a nation which does not recognize the legitimacy of tribe in its transcending politics, or at least diminishes the importance of race or culture in the claims of people. Comes socialism, an ideal that creates an artificial kin-ship between tribes, ideal based on definition and ideology, the building blocks of the racial tribe. Since ideology is owned by an elite, such central consciousness and elite is aggressively sought in those regions (a very tribal trait, after all), making socialism, and, if not, additional communist proletarian kinship, the inevitable choice.
But this choice does not happen indeed in a vacuum either. Socialism, much like an automobile, is only an instrument that must be actuated by men in order to do its deed. That socialism is inevitable is as ridiculous as making a driver immune from reproach in how a tool will be used. Socialism is not an inevitable democratic choice or preference for tribes, no, support for socialism and proliferation of socialist dictatorship in the region is to be blamed first and foremost. Russia and China are not only the proliferators of such political charlatanism while exacerbating a focused hatred of America, Russia and China proliferate the military and unconventional terror means of these socialist political groups that are to acquire or have acquired power in the region.
America's shape of involvement in the region as an unwanted ally screams for attention. Worse, our belief that the poverty is building nukes and terrorists in the region pointing at the US of A makes the golden arches' influence concept not only impossible, but in fact subsidising the very building of those nukes and terrorist militaries.
The Islamic Terrorism has blinded us to the other big threat we face from the Chicoms. They're quietly going about with their long term strategic goals to subvert the US. We're misreading this as their tacit support to our war on terrorism. They'll get to the moon before we are done finishing Al Qaida. Pakistan is helping them out in its own way!
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