2002 Senate Elections - 34 Elections Tabulated

11-21-01 | HighWheeler

[HighWheeler]

34 Senators will be up for election in 2002

It's time to start planning strategy.

Review the following table of all 34 of the 2002 Senate Races. Of the 34 races, several Dem Seats have a potential to be flipped to Republican (shown in green rows), a couple of Repub seats have a potential to be flipped to Dem. (shown in yellow rows) These flips are based on the some assumptions:

- Using only the 2000 Prez election results to indicate vulnerability, the green rows indicate a potential flip to Republican, The yellow indicate potential flip to DemocRAT. this assumes that Geo Bush will participate in the 2002 election campaigns and that he has coattails a year from now.
- The races in light blue are where the presidential election difference was under 5% regardless of presidential race outcome.
- The governor column is added as a reference, to indicate possible push or pull from the state's governor.
- The "Other Senator" column is added to show push or pull from the state's other senator.

There is a strong possibility that the GOP could win several key races, South Dakota being one, and turn the Senate over to the GOP with a 3 Senator margin.

---

---

No.	State	Incumbent Senator	SenatorParty	Is Senate Candidate Vulnerable To Losing Seat? (based only on state's 2000 presidential election going to other party)	2000 Presidential Candidate's Margin of victory. (neg number indicates state won by Gore)	The State Governor's party & next election year	State's Other Senator and party
1	Alabama	Jeff Sessions	Rep		14.91%
2	Alaska	Ted Stevens	Rep		30.95%
3	Arkansas	Tim Hutchinson	Rep		5.45%
4	Colorado	Wayne Allard	Rep		8.36%
5	Delaware	Joseph Biden	Dem		-13.06%
6	Georgia	Max Cleland	Dem	Yes	11.67%	Dem 02	Zell Miller (D)
7	Idaho	Larry Craig	Rep		39.53%
8	Illinois	Richard Durbin	Dem		-12.02%
9	Iowa	Tom Harkin	Dem	Close	-0.32%	Dem 02	Chuck Grassley (R)
10	Kansas	Pat Roberts	Rep		20.80%
11	Kentucky	Mitch McConnell	Rep		15.13%
12	Louisiana	Mary Landrieu	Dem	Yes	7.43%	Rep 03	John Breaux (D)
13	Maine	Susan Collins	Rep	Yes	- 5.12%	Indep 02	Olympia Snowe (R)
14	Massachusetts	John Kerry	Dem		-27.30%
15	Michigan	Carl Levin	Dem		-5.14%
16	Minnesota	Paul Wellstone	Dem	Close	-2.41%	Indep 02	Mark Dayton (D)
17	Mississippi	Thad Cochran	Rep		16.92%
18	Missouri	Jean Carnahan	Dem	Yes	3.34%	Dem 04	Christopher Bond (R)
19	Montana	Max Baucus	Dem	Yes	25.08%	Rep 04	Conrad Burns (R)
20	Nebraska	Chuck Hagel	Rep		29.00%
21	New Hampshire	Bob Smith	Rep	Close	1.27%	Dem 02	Judd Greg (R)
22	New Jersey	Robert Torricelli	Dem		-15.84%
23	New Mexico	Pete Domenici	Rep	Yes	- .06%	Rep 02	Jeff Bingamen (D)
24	North Carolina	Jesse Helms	Rep		12.83%
25	Oklahoma	James Inhofe	Rep		21.88%
26	Oregon	Gordon Smith	Rep	Yes	- 0.44%	Dem 02	Ron Wyden (D)
27	Rhode Island	Jack Reed	Dem		-29.08%
28	South Carolina	Strom Thurmond	Rep		15.94%
29	South Dakota	Tim Johnson	Dem	Yes	22.74%	Rep 02	Tom Daschole (D)
30	Tennessee	Fred Thompson	Rep	Close	3.87%	Rep 02	William Frist (R)
31	Texas	Phil Gramm	Rep		21.32%
32	Virginia	John Warner	Rep		8.03%
33	West Virginia	Jay Rockefeller	Dem	Yes	6.33%	Dem 04	Robert Byrd (D)

---

Last Updated on 11/21/01
By HighWheeler

[HighWheeler]

This table is corrected from the last one I posted.

How in the world South Dakota can give Geo Bush a 23% margin and still vote in two RAT senators is beyond any reasonable logic.

For the Senate vote to select the leader, having a RINO is hands down better than a RAT.

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

Out of this list, the probabilities support the ouster of Carnahan, Landrieu, Johnson, and Cleland, while Collins and Smith are particularly vulnerable for the R's. Johnson & Cleland's states went heavily for Bush yet have no Republican senators...people will notice that in '02, but alot has to do with who the R's are running. It's easy to pre-gloat about future wins based on the presidential showing, but it doesn't do any good if you shoot yourself in the foot by running a Michael Huffington or equivalent.

Carnahan will suffer from the Mosely Braun syndrome and be tossed out, and Johnson & Landrieu share the same predicament as Cleland. I don't see Baucus losing, he's been there a long time and has support in the eastern half of the state. Likewise, I don't see Domenici falling, either, for the same reasons. This can turn out well, but the base cannot be slacking off on election day for yet another election.

[Saundra Duffy]

"yellow indicate potential flip to DemocRAT" Good color choice. Here's a chant from our Condit freeps: "He's not a blue dog; he's a YELLOW DOG!" For victory & freedom!!!

[rellimpank]

--as a former resident here is my opinion: South Dakota has been a near 50-50 state in the past. This year, the decent people, including lots of Demo's, came out and voted massively against Clinton clone Gore. Hopefully, the actions of Tom D'Aschole will cause the same reaction in '02 and '04--

[Malcolm]

Thanks for these charts! I don't think incumbents are as vulnerable as you suggest, however. Some people I know vote for Republicans for President, yet vote Democrat for everything else. Being from GA, I can tell you that Max Cleland is very popular, despite voting with Sen Kennedy more than he does the GOP, and will probably get re-elected. Same for Daschle and Landrieu (on the latter, I saw an article that said a Republican was raising money for her; must not be an overly bright Republican). If your math was correct, Baucus of Montana would also be dethroned, but he will probably return as well. Unlike us junkies, regular people in the street are incredibly stupid (they think Dems stand for the "little guy," that the GOP only represents the rich, etc), and with the Leftist media drumming that into their empty heads non-stop, you begin to get the picture. Anything is possible, but for a Presidental party in power, the first midterm election is not landslide territory (Reagan in 82, Clinton in 94). Let us hope I'm wrong about 2002.....

[MissouriDirtFarmer]

Carnahan will suffer the Mosely-Braun Syndrome only if the fraud can be stopped in Saint Louis.
Thank God enough of us rural people voted for Bush to offset the dead people and pets voting in Saint Louis.

[Republican Wildcat]

Well, I don't believe Smith is going beat Sununu, so that is water under the bridge. Who is challenging Collins that would make her vulnerable?

[freethinkingman]

Carnahan will suffer from the Mosely Braun syndrome and be tossed out

As a Missourian I hope and pray that you are right, If I am correct, I think Jim Talent is running against the widdow Carnahan.

She has been keeping a low profile since the election, except for the one vote "against" John Ashcroft for Atty. Gen. Whom she beat out for the Senate seat by virtue of the pitty-vote generated for the week-old corpse Mr.C. I still am Fumming over the shennanigins pulled by the Dems in STL on election eve to keep the poles open longer to perpetuate more voter fraud, I am convinced had this not happened John would have won that seat, but in hindsight God may have been at work?

ftm

[Republican Wildcat]

Better have the Missouri Court of Appeals in session when the polls close in case another incompetent (or corrupt) judge decides to rule to keep the polls open in only one part of the State again...

[deport]

With Gramm out Texas will have an open seat.... The democrats appear to be having a hotly contested primary with 3 or 4 candidates in the race. It is questionable at this time that a hotly contested primary will occur in the Republican Primary as some of the previous mentioned candidates have indicated they won't run. All in all it should still be a win for the Republicans, I'd think.

Louisiana still hasn't gotten a strong Republican candidate to challenge Landrieu as far as I can tell...

[HighWheeler]

Who are some of the other Senators who will not be running this year, any ideas?

[HighWheeler]

I hope the Repubs are grooming a decent candidate in each state where they have a chance, and if not just pull a carpetbagger into the slot the way Hillary! did last year.

[spartan68]

HW, Think SD is bad, watch Maine vote in Dem replacement for Collins and watch Dem John Baldachi get elected Gov.
Maine is fast becoming home to all the liberals, the rest of us are packing up and moving out...

[HighWheeler]

Getting rid of Tim Johnson in SD should be a piece of cake, except how in hell can these people vote so heavily for Bush and still send to Democraps to the Senate? I hope they have a good candidate in the Repub corner.

[HighWheeler]

If this $hit happens again, it is only our fault. We were put on strong notice last year about deviant MO Dem politics, and tactics in WI and other states. We better set up strong counter offensives now.

[Lancey Howard]

For the Senate vote to select the leader, having a RINO is hands down better than a RAT.

I dunno.... sometimes it's better for satan to be ugly - - he's easier to recognize that way.
RINOs (like Jeffords was) turn my stomach more than nearly any rat, except maybe for pukes like Leahy and Boxer.

[Lancey Howard]

Think SD is bad, watch Maine vote in Dem replacement for Collins

I think Collins is liberal enough to be safe.
Maine is such a pretty state, too. I wonder, where do all the liberal parasite Democrats come from?

[HighWheeler]

The ONLY reason a RINO beats a RAT is during the moment when they vote for Senate leader.

If the RINO intends on getting any Republican money, backing, support or committee positions, the senator MUST vote the party for Senate leader. This is the only reason a RINO beats a RAT, but it is a big one.

Jeffords felt he had to renounce his Republicanship so he could remove his vote for the Republican Senate leader candidate.

[deport]

Thurmond for sure..... There was talk of Helms, and maybe Thompson, not running.... I'm not sure where they stand at this time. And Bob Smith in NH will have a strong challenge it appears from Sununu

[HighWheeler]

I like Sununu, he would be a great Senator. He is intelligent, commanding, and vocal.

He would skewer liberals into a nice shish-kebob. Those are made out of sheep aren't they?