Posted on 04/19/2024 11:05:37 AM PDT by Red Badger
KEY POINTS
Most of the past several weeks have shown that first-time claims for unemployment benefits haven’t fluctuated at all — as in zero.
A string of weekly reports showing exactly 212,000 initial claims has raised a few eyebrows on Wall Street.
A Labor Department spokesperson noted that while the string of 212,000 prints on the jobless claims data is “uncommon,” it can be attributed to a consistent jobs picture reflected in seasonal adjustments to the data.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Calling the state of the U.S. jobs market these days stable seems like an understatement considering the latest data coming out of the Labor Department.
That’s because most of the past several weeks have shown that first-time claims for unemployment benefits haven’t fluctuated at all — as in zero.
For five of the past six weeks, the level of initial jobless filings totaled exactly 212,000. Given a labor force that is 168 million strong, achieving such stasis seems at least unusual if not uncanny, yet that is what the figures released each Thursday morning since mid-March have shown.
The consistency has raised a few eyebrows on Wall Street. The only week that varied was March 30, with 222,000.
“How is this statistically possible? Five of the last six weeks, the exact same number,” market veteran Jim Bianco, head of Bianco Research, posted Thursday on X.
“Initial claims for unemployment insurance are state programs, with 50 state rules, hundreds of offices, and 50 websites to file. Weather, seasonality, holidays, and economic vibrations drive the number of people filing claims from week to week,” he added. “Yet this measure is so stable that it does not vary by even 1,000 applications a week.”
Others chimed in as well.
“Numbers made up,” one participant on the thread opined, while another said, “Someone’s cooking the books.”
However, others offered more analytical thoughts, attributing the uniformity in data to seasonal adjustments. Tracey Ryniec, a strategist at Zacks Investment Research, suggested: “You can go look at each state Jim. Those vary greatly.”
Indeed, a Labor Department spokesperson noted that while the string of 212,000 prints on the jobless claims data is “uncommon,” it would not be considered anomalous.
The streak “can be reasonably interpreted as an indication that there has been very little volatility in initial claims over this period relative to historical patterns, and that the seasonal adjustment factors are effectively removing seasonality from the aggregate figures reported by states,” the official said.
Moreover, claims not adjusted seasonally have shown substantial fluctuation during the five-week period, registering readings of 202,722; 191,772; 193,921; 197,349; 215,265 and 208,509.
Federal Reserve officials watch the weekly claims numbers as part of their broader assessment of the labor market, which has shown surprising resilience as the central bank has tightened monetary policy.
The Labor Department official also pointed out that new seasonal factors to the claims data were announced a month ago.
“Using the new seasonal adjustment factors, initial claims have been at a fairly consistent level since around mid-September 2023 and even more so since the start of February 2024,” the spokesperson said.
I’m shocked that CNBC was allowed to print this article.
Translation: It’s an election year.
It’s only been up 45 minutes.
It may get pulled..................
You better archive this! 😃
I smell FUDGE, like in the Labor Department FUDGED THE NUMBERS.
An economist I follow says there may be a lag effect as those getting severances (esp the tech sector) are not yet reported as unemployed.
Here in Florida, there is a 2 week lag between applying and receiving.................
Has there ever been an administration that could be trusted less than Biden’s??? They lie, they cheat, they steal, they - you name it!!!
For 5 of the 6 weeks the “unadjusted” numbers are lower than 212,000 (the one other week it’s above 212,000 just barely).
And CNBC is just now noticing these strange anomalies in the jobs numbers? This has been happening for several years now but has gotten worse since Biden was selected President.
I recall when Trump was President the media reported all economic numbers as bad, no matter how good they were. Once Biden was put into office, they started doubling down on releasing plain out false information.
Yeah, and my bull took an “uncommon” in the pasture this morning.
Been closing in on a year being unemployed, everything about the numbers is complete bullshit. Never ever seen it like it is right now, not during covid, not during the housing collapse, not during the .com burst…
It is absolute complete excrement out there
Definition-cooking the books
Hokus pokus with the claims!
I haven’t really watched the price of Gold and silver much for the last couple of years. But I just checked and both are up in an interestingly “solid” way. That is, they’ve made a strong slow but steady climb as of late. Not the bouncing around I saw in the past. It’s not the price that I find interesting. It’s how it got there.
Oh, and with gold it IS the price as well. It’s over 2400 now.
Two weeks in a row would be interesting and statistically possible. But not the string we’re looking at. This is either lying or incompetence. That is, the data point from where this comes is not being updated.
>>>This is either lying or incompetence.<<<
It can be both!...............
“I smell FUDGE”
Me too. What’s the chance that three 6-digit monthly headcounts will be identical to the last digit? The chances are 1/100000 squared.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.