Definitely difficult to predict intensity. Idalia will pass through the super-warm loop current. If the storm intensifies into 3/4 once in the GOM (a la Charley and Ian), it will be too late at that point for mass evacuations in the Tampa Bay area.
This looks alot like Ida and Michael. Fujiwara effect from Franklin is keeping this pinned south of Cuba for the moment.
I think forward speed will be key in this storm if its really rolling along makes a huge difference the deadly ones are the ones that roll at 5mph or less.
Tomorrow I think will be key when it hits that super hot water in the Gulfstream and the Gulf,no telling how quick it will grow.