A ‘catastrophe’ is coming for the economy, but it’s not recession or inflation, says Secretary of Labor Marty Walsh

CNBC ^ | 10/25/22 | Eric Rosenbaum

[EBH]

There has been a lot of talk about looming layoffs, and by some recent surveying, as many as half of large employers are thinking about labor cost cuts as the economy slows. But U.S. Department of Labor Secretary Marty Walsh doesn’t see the recent job gains reversing, according to an interview at CNBC’s Work Summit on Tuesday.

“I still think that we’re going to have job gains as we move into the end of this year, early next year. A lot of people are still looking at different jobs,” he told CNBC’s Kayla Tausche at the virtual event. “We saw a lot of moving around over this last course of the year. People leaving jobs, getting better jobs, and I’m not convinced yet that we’re headed towards that.”

For the Federal Reserve, some level of higher unemployment is necessary to cool an economy that has been bedeviled by persistent inflation. Unemployment, at 3.5% now, went down in the last monthly nonfarm payrolls report. The Fed is targeting unemployment of 4.4% as a result of its policy and higher interest rates.

“We definitely have to bring down inflationary pressures,” Walsh said at the CNBC Work Summit, but he added that the way to do it isn’t layoffs.

[jneesy]

I believe big tech and others are waiting until after elections to help the party I think that around mid November we’ll see the real state of the economy

[semimojo]

…though the dollar is weak.

Compared to what? Weakness is relative.

…the dollar is still stronger than the Euro, the Pound, the Yen etc.

The dollar is crazy strong right now, which isn’t necessarily desirable.

[Mad Dawgg]

Over the past 30 years or so I made an effort to learn about economics and our (USA) monetary system. I’ve read about every economics book I can get my hands on. Adam Smith, Von Mises, Milton Freedman, Thomas Sowell, Hernando de Soto, Friedrich Hyaek etc. It seems to me lately that our economic system is operating contrary to about everything I’ve read.

What is happening now seems it can’t last.
The stock market is rigged there is no doubt. (See: Naked Short) the amount of digital money created daily is squeezing al us and there seems no end in sight. When you step back and look at what is happening IMHO it seems like it is by design. At first I thought it was to rig the system for the Super Rich. But the more I think about it we are close to the dollar going into total collapse which would not help the Super Rich at all.

However, if there was a new dollar ready to take the place of the old and the people in the know (politicians, big tech, big banking, etc.) were already aware of the plan then it starts making sense.

I think maybe this whole inflation and unemployment situation as well as the open borders is what the Russians call a “maskirovka”. A fake out like magiciabs use. Look at me flail about with this hand while the other is doing the feed that seems like magic.

I think we are going to be presented with a new official digital dollar that is akin to Bitcoin and it will be deemed by all the pondits, the only cure for our economic woes.

And if that happens, the grey economy will be squeezed out of existence and the goverment will know every purchase you make with the new Digidollars.

I hope to gawd I am wrong but something is wrong. The politicians aren’t stupid enough to believe this constant spending and then creating digital dollars out of thin air can’t go on, as is, forever.

Of course once the new Digidollar is up and running and physical currency is no more, eventually it will be even worse as far as creating money out of thin air.

I know that personally I am paying off all debt. I’ve cashed out everything I had in the markets and gave most of it to my daughter so she is not in debt. And I constantly monitor the economic indicators.

I hope I am wrong. In fact it would make me very happy to be completely wrong on all counts but it nags at me. I lose sleep over this economic mess knowing if the dollar does go bye bye the Great Depression will seem like and all expense paid trip to the Bahamas by comparison.

(Copies of this testimonial can be picked up in the lobby as you leave the theater.)

[joe fonebone]

Your comment and questions are spot on.
This situation is the bush/mccain depression level event of ‘06 finally playing itself out.
What can the government do?
If they are smart...NOTHING.
Let this thing play itself out, we as a nation will come out stronger on the other side.
As conservatives, we as individuals must be ready to lend assistance to those hardest hit.
This is gonna hurt. But, its been coming for 16 years.

[taterjay]

How much less inflation would there have been if more people had been employed to build a pipeline that would have insured the free flow of abundant cheap energy to our nation???

[EBH]

Well, from everything I have been reading lately, the CBDC looks to be coming in 2023. Although even the Fed is/was saying the elimination of ‘cash’ as we know will not happen right away.

I have been picking up junk silver every month or so this year. Trying to hold a balance on it of about 1% to gross income.

Only debt I have left is a tiny portion on my mortgage with a payment well below the average and rate locked. Everything else is debt free, even the car.

Back in 2010 I scaled my side hustle to full-time business. But right now I am struggling to eye another side hustle as I am not sure what niche looks profitable. But, maybe that is the point of the elites, they do not want you to know or keep everything so insecure as one cannot tell which way to go.

Which is super bad news for the creators and entrepreneurs.

[chopperk]

The worst case scenario is collapse of the dollar and the Chinese raise their monetary unit as the World Reserve Currency. It would be inevitable that the entire world financial system would collapse.

[MrRelevant]

But wait, isnt it the ‘evil’ corporations rolling around in record profits overcharging consumers that caused this inflation?

I think people have become desensitized to numbers and values.

Our debt is 32000000000000.00 dollars and climbing. It might as well be 32.00 to these fools who think all is well and debt doesnt matter.

[woodbutcher1963]

In NH unemployment is 2.4%.
Starting jobs around here are $17-20/hour.
There are many restaurants and small businesses that have curtailed operations. The small store in my town is now closed on Sunday and Monday. A Chinese restaurant closes its dining room because they can not hire anyone outside of the family to work there and be profitable. So, they do take out, the bar and have about three tables in the bar available.

[null and void]

The grapevines to which I'm still privy have it that there will be layoffs in December and it's going it's be brutal.

They would be more effective if they were before the election.

Just sayin'...

[null and void]

Unemployment is at 3.5%?

Seriously?

Officially!

The seasonally-adjusted SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate reflects current unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for SGS-estimated long-term discouraged workers, who were defined out of official existence in 1994. That estimate is added to the BLS estimate of U-6 unemployment, which includes short-term discouraged workers. The U-3 unemployment rate is the monthly headline number. The U-6 unemployment rate is the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) broadest unemployment measure, including short-term discouraged and other marginally-attached workers as well as those forced to work part-time because they cannot find full-time employment.

[Vaduz]

The Left is destroying that foundation.

That’s the plan they want to restructure the country to fit their needs and ways for control.

Socialism = Marxism = Communism what part have they not left out.

[desertfreedom765]

Inflation is a transfer of wealth from the Middle Class to the Government and the Wealthy.

The rich own assets which are revalued as the currency loses value. Also during the economy disruption caused by inflation they are able to acquire more assets from people who are forced to sell assets to cover their bills.

The Government pays their bills for free by just printing money.

The debt is so large now that the Fed can’t raise interest rates high enough to bring down inflation. A few more points and the interest on the debt will become unpayable by the government.

So their only option is to inflate the debt away. This will absolutely crush savers and older people who have saved their entire lives for retirement.

I wish this wasn’t so, anyone who disagrees is welcome to provide counter arguments.

[Pete Dovgan]

In the early portion of the last century, in order to immigrate, you had to prove that you could care for yourself and had enough money in the bank for backup in case you could not. Under Obama, 50% plus of immigrates NEVER got a job within 24 months of immigrating, and about 50% were unemployable. Immigration should occur when people can be productive and not be a ‘drag’ on system already paying for those who don’t contribute. God only knows what percentage of ‘immigrants’ under Biden are ‘dependent’ from day one, but I would wager that percent is greater than under Obama.

The key to controlling Government is to control the money into and out of government. That means we have to control spending and increase tax revenue to balance the budjet. Decreasing the welfare state, increasing the economy, and increase the percentage of taxpayers should be the goal. Most of that can be accomplished by limiting immigration to those that can be productive, and forcing people out of the life long welfare.

[EBH]

Record tax receipts defeat Biden’s arguments for new taxes
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/restoring-america/fairness-justice/record-tax-receipts-defeat-bidens-arguments-for-new-taxes

he Congressional Budget Office has released a report showing that we paid more in taxes this year than in any other year. Federal taxes collected in fiscal 2022, which ended Sept. 30, reached an all-time high of $4.9 trillion, an increase of $850 billion, or 21%, over last year.

No we do not need to increase tax revenue. We are paying more than ever before. The only reason to increase revenue is because they refuse to cut spending.

[Paul R.]

Comparing to 2020 seems rather questionable to me. OTOH, increases in State and local taxes and fees are ongoing and substantial. A start might be looking at Federal taxes collected in 2010 - 2022, adjusted for inflation to 2022 dollars.

[Paul R.]

I agree, although not all the supply shortages are caused by energy in short supply, globally. China seems determined to devolve its economy, and not just because it continues COVID shutdowns. If it persists, production will shift / continue to shift to other countries, but, that is a long process, additionally burdened by very high levels of global public and private debt.

The present situation is something we’ve not seen in a while: Inflation spawned by massive stimulus and supply shortages coincident with recession. Then tack on that debt I mentioned. IMO, it looks increasingly like the can kicked down the road has become a lead bucket...

[EBH]

report showing that we paid more in taxes this year than in any other year.

Just sayin...

[Pete Dovgan]

Increasing tax revenue by raising taxes only works to a point. Once you reach that point, it actually diminishes tax revenue because the economy shrinks and people go into black markets as well as diminish exchanges.

Raising taxes won’t increase tax revenue at this point. Biden and the democrats can do it, but it won’t help. I believe we are already at maximum tax rate for revenue generation. Raising Tax revenue, in my opinion, must be from growing the economy. You do that by decreasing taxes, decreasing regulation, and promoting small business. Basically all the things the democrats NEVER want to do.