Posted on 09/23/2022 2:32:24 AM PDT by NautiNurse
The late-blooming 2022 Atlantic Tropical Storm season is making up for lost time. A tropical system has developed in the Central Caribbean Sea. This storm system is forecast to threaten continental U.S. interests next week. While the tropical wave passed south of a key geographic area known as Hebert's Box #1, it will very likely pass through Hebert's Box #2. These boxes are useful as predictors of hurricanes that will strike South Florida. For more information about Hebert's Boxes, see Hebert Box. See graphic below which illustrated the Hebert's Boxes.
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Hebert's Boxes
I told my husband, after seeing the changes in Pensacola after Ivan, Ft Myers Beach will change substantially after Ian and not for the better. We had a small 2 bedroom block home, and I spent many days at those beaches (I’m a shell collector), with Lover’s Key being my fav. We left shortly before Ida, our neighbor rode out that storm (lost his fence and roof was damaged). Eventually, once things settle down, we will contact him; hopefully he didn’t try riding out Ian. Since moving we RV In that area for several weeks each summer. I’d imagine that RV park is now gone since it was Hurricane Bay. The owner was selling it, so doubtful it will be restored.
Stuff can be replaced.
Life cannot.
But if people value their possessions more than their lives, that’s on them.
Speaking of possessions...
I wonder how many EV owners with buyer’s remorse left their cars to flood during Ian in order to collect the insurance money...
Ivan took out an old motel on Pensacola Beach that was an antique that had been there since the 50s. Nothing has been rebuilt on that site as of this past March.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Ian is expected to become a hurricane again
this evening and make landfall as a hurricane on Friday, with rapid
weakening forecast after landfall.
Ian is a large cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward
up to 415 miles (665 km) from the center. A NOAA CMAN station at the
Saint Johns County pier in Saint Augustine Beach recently reported a
sustained wind of 53 mph (85 km/h) and a gust of 61 mph (98 km/h).
A WeatherSTEM station reported a gust of 74 mph (119 km/h) was
reported at Marineland, Florida.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).
000
WTNT34 KNHC 291500
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ian Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA
WITH IAN...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/291500.shtml
Yep, the 5 flags, I remember that.
Just heard from one niece in Lake Wales/Fort Meade area. Her house is 3 feet off the ground, but the water level is just a few inches from her doorway now. The driveway is completely under water, past the knees of her husband who went out to survey. So probably about 2 feet high out in the driveway. She said it’s growing higher by the hour. No power but does have cell/internet service.
Oh no and I just heard that it will become a hurricane again.on cell phone
Yes, it immediately began intensifying this morning as soon as it cleared land. Last advisory had it back at 70 MPH.
Forecast though is for only 75-80 when it reaches SC
Great that you made it through the night alright. Hope you get power back soon.
Up in Weeki Wachee the power held.
Still praying for those farther south.
And looters.
They can be the worst of all.
That’s so scary.
That is incredible.
I sure hope nobody who lived in those trailer homes decided to try to ride the storm out in them.
Palm trees are amazing. I rarely see them fall like that, but the fact that they can generally keep standing and retain their leaves in those kinds of winds is incredible.
I hear you - still, the ability to take out some looters is tempting.
I wouldn’t risk my life for it, but I can see the attraction. For some.
I think people that stayed behind were more inclined to think that a 2 or 3 was coming in, not a big 4+. And that storm surge is not to be ignored, for it won’t ignore you!
I was just texting with my sister in the Jacksonville area - so far, windy, but not stormy windy. Rain, outer bands hitting, scattered small power outages, nothing huge. But the hurricane is going to grow back into a hurricane as it gets out over the waters again, before turning NW and hitting the beaches of South Carolina.
The blame for that is on the MSM that hypes everything.
The NWS issues warnings based on computer model predictions and must give the worst case scenario.
They are in a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation.
If they warn people of the worst and it doesn't happen, they are castigated.
If they were to not warn people of the worst and the worst happened, they would be excoriated and have blood on their hands.
And either way, nobody would trust them any more.
The thing it, people need to think for themselves. This storm was HUGE and strong, was over very warm water, which lends itself to strengthening, and moved in fast. It just doesn't weaken easily at that point. People should have taken appropriate action upon seeing that.
If you blow off everything as a nothing burger as so many people do, one of these days, it won't be, and then you are screwed.
It's awful to see that kind of devastation. I've been to Sanibel too, and it is .... was beautiful.
This storm is now on track to pass over my sister north of FL at a still decent strength.
Prayers up for all still in its path.
That is expected causeway damage. When the water rises and waves cover large areas, momentum plus incompressibility, as the surface smacks the bottom of the slab, snap the mounts right off and lift the slab.
Katrina did this to more than one causeway. Those were back in operation pretty quick.
Still haven’t heard from our friends in Venice (since yesterday at 5:30pm). I’m assuming the reason is cell tower damage, etc.
Thanks for the link.
I have relatives in the Venice area. Just heard from them this morning and it seems that at their location several miles inland it’s mostly street flooding and some tree damage, also some lanai cages destroyed. Verizon service is nonexistent in the area but we’re able to borrow someone’s AT&T phone and send out some texts.
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