Posted on 10/12/2021 1:16:36 PM PDT by ChicagoConservative27
Rep. John Yarmuth (D-KY), chairman of the House Budget Committee and leading the talks on infrastructure, announced Tuesday that he would not be seeking reelection.
“It’s been an incredible journey since my first campaign in 2006 until now. I will continue to fight for Louisville in Washington for another 15 months, and then, I will retire from Congress. I will have plenty more to say in the months ahead,” he tweeted along with a short video:
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
That was never doable. When Indianapolis and its suburbs could have been split into two GOP districts back in the 1990s, NW IN was so heavily D that one would have had to draw one D CD in that area (and throw in South Bend as well so as to get back the IN-02). And now that NW IN can be split into two GOP CDs (with South Bend in a separate CD), Indianapolis is so heavily Democrat, and its suburbs so less Republican than before, that packing Ds into the IN-07 is the only way to make adjoining CDs Republican.
I’m sure there’s a way to get creative with Indianapolis. ;-D
Unfortunately, not anymore; it’s gone deep into the Dark Side. Not only did Marion County go from 49.23% for Bush in 2000 to a pitiful 34.30% for Trump in 2020 (the vote margin went from +3,621 in 2000 to -113,597 in 2020). And Hamilton County, the big suburban county to the north that would have been key to splitting Indianapolis into two GOP CDs back in the 1990s or 2000s, went from 74.24% for Bush in 2004 to only 52.21% for Trump in 2020 (the GOP vote margin dropping from +51,499 to a mere 13,197 despite the overall vote total increasing from 104,906 to 194,577). The numbers just aren’t there anymore. But, hey, an 8R-1D House delegation from IN would be nothing at which to sneeze; it’s sad that the GOP legislature wasn’t even willing to do that.
IL rats must have read what you wrote cause they have a new proposal out.
Creating a new IL-3 which I think I’m in, while sticking Newman and Casten together. Underwood in a 55% Biden seat. The 17th having a 9 point Biden margin. Yucky.
https://twitter.com/NinGamer64/status/1452304791540019212
IL-13 looks like a worm and IL-17 is particularly shameless in its efforts to grab any urban core throughout NW and north central Illinois to keep it from flipping GOP.
Some of the posters on the RRH Elections Blog have thrown in their two cents on the new map for what its worth:
“IL-06, 11, and 17 still look weak. Once again, relying on just 2020 numbers is a recipe for disaster.”
“[IL-06] is interesting because it combines right trending but Dem downballot turf in Cook Co with some left trending but historically Republican towns with residudal Republican downballot strength (Downers Grove, Lisle, and Darien especially).”
https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2021/10/22/weekend-open-thread-for-october-22-24-2021/
I think that that map would give the RATs a 14-3 House delegation and that it gives the RATs a good chance of holding all 14 seats for the entire decade. It does provide the GOP with several opportunities for later in the decade, but that could not be avoided if they were to draw 14 RAT seats (or 12 RAT seats, for that matter. And combining traditionally Republican, but left-trending suburban precincts with traditionally Democrat, but right-trending urban precincts is precisely how they should go about drawing seats that will stay Democrat whether IL voting patterns continue down the same path or return to the pre-Obama paradigm.
Supposedly Lipinski is mulling a comeback and thinks he can win IL-3 under the proposed RAT remap since the RATS drew in a bunch of socially conservative rural areas but tried to keep the district RAT majority as a whole. Odd. Though it be an uphill battle trying to oust Newman in a RAT primary. (Hypothetically I could see Lipinski winning against her in a general election)
That was under last week’s IL-03; this new IL-03 has a Hispanic plurality and I don’t think either Newman or Lipinski will run there.
If Casten and Newman both run in the new IL-06, then Lipinski might be able to win the RAT primary with a plurality, but more likely he’d end up throwing the primary to Newman.
BTW, the new IL-13 (the Democrat-leaning snake of a district that slithers from East St. Louis to Champaign) will be very tough for the GOP to win, but, if anyone can do it, it’s Erika Harold. She got 45.6% within those lines in the 2018 AG race, when the political environment was far more toxic for the GOP.
More bad with this new new proposal, Rodney Davis is in the safe 15th (the snake 13th is open) and Mary Miller and Mike Bost are together in the southern 12th. Queenzinger and LaHood jr . are together in the 16th.
Davis is not acceptable for a safe seat and it goes without saying Queenzinger must go. Also I’d really like Mary Miller to stay.
Those leftist douchebags should be happy, especially compared to the last map which gave us a real chance at winning 6 this year.
I could never get “Microsoft Silverlight” to work so I could use the fabled “Dave’s Redistricting App” but I can’t see how they could make a worse (better for them) map. With only 3 safe GOP seats there is no way to make the 17th any worse.
The 11th and 6th each gave 47% to Erica Harold in 2018 but given the configuration of the new 3rd, again I don’t see how they could be improved for the rats other than say ridiculous little tendrils into Chicago or something.
I feel worst for the new rural voters stuck with Robin Kelly.
At least I get rid of the odious Chuy Garcia. I hope whomever is nominated in IL-3 isn’t worse.
I recall from Barone’s Almanac that Luis Gutiérrez’s “earmuffs” Il-04 combined Puerto Rican neighborhoods north of the Westside ghetto (the heart of IL-07) with Mexican neighborhoods south of the ghetto. When the Puerto Rican Gutiérrez retired, the Mexican-American Chuy García replaced him, and Chuy certainly will stay in the new IL-04. So I don’t know who your new congresscritter will be, but there’s a good chance that he or she will be Puerto Rican. Maybe state senator Omar Aquino?
While the new IL-15 does include Rodney Davis’s home, most of his current CD is in the new Democrat-leaning IL-13, and the new IL-15 takes in large swaths from the districts currently represented by Bustos, LaHood and Miller. Miller easily could scoot over to the new IL-15 and run for reelection there—even her district number would be the same. That would leave Bost to run for reelection in IL-12 and LaHood in IL-16 (bye-bye, Kinzinger).
If this map is approved, we’ll see Republicans scramble for those potentially competitive (but RAT-leaning) CDs: IL-06, IL=08, IL-11, IL-13, IL-14 and IL-17 (plus IL-10, which might be potentially competitive if you squint hard enough). I already mentioned that Erika Harold would be our best bet for IL-13, and I also think that Esther Joy King would have a decent chance in the open IL-17 and hottie Catalina Lauf should run in Foster’s redrawn IL-11 (which includes her home, is 16% Hispanic, and gave Harold 47.1% in her AG race in über-Democrat 2018).
My sister now lives in Manhattan, Illinois, which is in the middle of the rural part of Will Co. (They’re surrounded by farmland) and is a hyper GOP suburb with Trump signs all over. In the previous remap they drove them nuts by putting Manhattan at the tail end of Bobby Bush’s district
These old timers have no interest in serving in the minority. Being elected is about personal power and if that is usurped then they have no reason being there.
BTW, following last Tuesday’s results, I’m not so sure that IL-06, IL=08, IL-11, IL-13, IL-14 and IL-17 are as safely RAT as IL redistricters thought they were, and we don’t need to squint quite as hard to see IL-10 as potentially competitive as well. A suburban swing towards the GOP of the same magnitude as we saw in VA, NJ, PA and NY, combined with a continuation of the blue-collar move towards the GOP, could net us all of those seats in 2020.
And as for the IL governorship, check out this Tweet from Politics1.com:
“ILLINOIS. Billionaire businessman & Chicago Cubs co-owner Todd Ricketts (R) is stepping down as RNC Finance Chair, more than a year before his term ends. This re-ups the speculation he plans next year to challenge Gov JB Pritzker (D), a fellow billionaire.”
When the new IL gerrymandered map came out, I said:
“I already mentioned that Erika Harold would be our best bet for IL-13, and I also think that Esther Joy King would have a decent chance in the open IL-17 and hottie Catalina Lauf should run in Foster’s redrawn IL-11 (which includes her home, is 16% Hispanic, and gave Harold 47.1% in her AG race in über-Democrat 2018).”
Well, Harold hasn’t said anything either way, but King is running in IL-17 and now Lauf has switched to the IL-11 race, which is good news.
What’s your source for those numbers from the new IL districts?
It was from an article written back when the maps were adopted; I can’t find it now. It had a chart with the percentages of the 18+ population by race and ethnicity and with the voting results in the 2018 AG race.
Oh, well I just found that Dave’s Redistricting App has the info
https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::a7b80084-ecc0-4789-8bf7-2dc7ab2c5ace
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