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To: Shadylake
I’m a huge fan of Space (and SpaceX) but this is kind of a hard blow. They need a pretty drastic change.

I think their cost per test vehicle is so low they can do this 100x if needed.

The worse part, to me, is they barely seem to be improving each time. With Falcon 9 they had a few crashes, then landing failures

They've blown up a lot of rockets prior to getting a launch capable Falcon-9. They were blowing up and crashing hopper prototypes on a regular basis in McGregor TX, prior to fielding the all-up tests. The earlier series of Falcon booster went through a similar development cycle out in the Pacific.

The current StarShip effort appears effectively intended to reduce costs by another order of magnitude without spending an order of magnitude more money. The re-usable multi-mission upper stage for a TSTO mission is thus a necessary priority. They're using stainless steel, updating proven welding techniques, high surface-to-dry-mass ratio. The whole rocket costs roughly 10% of a SSME (guesstimation on my part). Remember NASA wanted to throw away multiple $140M SSMEs per expendable launches post-Shuttle, considered reasonable because the total mission costs were typically specified in Giga$.

It looks like Space-X is channelling some of the cost-saving techniques proposed by Truax for the Sea Dragon. The "Big Dumb Booster" Truax wanted to develop was also intended to be reusable. At the time, Aerojet and NASA couldn't find a mission for putting 500 tons in orbit every month (hmm, StarShip test articles are roughly 100 tons ). A lot of the technology used by SpaceX was studied to death by NACA and NASA in the 20th Century. SpaceX is certainly using "Minimum Cost Design" principles to guide strategy.

Step back from the entertainment and consider: what if StarLink successfully disrupts the telecom sector? There will be plenty of investment dollars looking for a home. Probably $trillions. I feel the risk equation is firmly in favor of continuing the StarShip show. It's probably worth a Giga$ investment right now.

74 posted on 03/30/2021 9:53:09 AM PDT by no-s (Soap box, ballot box, jury box, cartridge box...you know how it goes...)
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To: no-s

Oh, I’m not for them canceling Starship. I just wonder if they might want to reconsider a lot of the design or flight profiles.

The main problems *seem* to be related to the engines/fueling. SN15 is a few weeks away it looks and hopefully will do better. The main thing I’m worried about is how long it might take to make it feasible to carry humans.


75 posted on 03/30/2021 10:01:44 AM PDT by Shadylake
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