Posted on 11/01/2020 6:14:43 AM PST by Coop
Here’s the original thread. It unfortunately did not stimulate discussion as I had hoped, but c’est la vie on FR. Reminder: The GOP needs a net gain of only 17 seats to retire Nancy Pelosi as speaker.
There are 30 Dem House representatives in districts Trump won. I keep hearing that the Dems are not only going to hold the House, but expand their majority. I find that hard to believe based on the below numbers.
GOP advantages are the numbers shown below (30 Trump-district Dem seats to defend vs. 3 Clinton-district GOP seats), as well as having Trump on the top of the ticket (unlike 2018 when we lost most of these seats). The GOP disadvantage is most of these Democrats are incumbents and very well funded. There are two open seats (no incumbent) in the below tables: IA-02 and TX-23. GOP candidates running in swing states will benefit from Trump & RNC money & get-out-the-vote operations. Republicans running in states like NJ and NY will need more of their own campaign money & hopefully NRCC funding.
The Cook partisan voting index (PVI) shows how a district leans, right or left, based on previous elections. WI-03 is rated as “even” on the Cook scale, meaning it is as “down the middle” as a district can get. R+2 means a district is about two points more Republican than WI-03, and D+7 means a district is about 7 point more Democratic than WI-03. Cook ratings for PA-08 and PA-17 are marked with question marks due to redistricting (these districts didn’t exist in this form during the last POTUS election, and I was finding conflicting information).
Since originally publishing that thread, I have found quite a bit of encouraging news in GOP candidates actually outraising their incumbent Dem counterparts. Polls, which I do not care for, actually show competitive races and GOP leads in quite a few of my list of 30. Plus it appears the GOP is in good shape to hold CA-50 (Duncan Hunter’s old seat) and in decent shape to hold Don Bacon’s NE-02 seat, as well as one of the three Clinton won seats (the other two are up for grabs). I emboldened the seats I am especially bullish about flipping (or holding, in the case of GOP Rep. Fitzpatrick), based on polling, fundraising, the national GOP turnout numbers I’m seeing, and the presumed RNC/Trump get-out-the-vote efforts through election day. Just because I did not embolden a name doesn’t mean I don’t think they can win. It just means they’re either not in a swing state and/or I haven’t seen much evidence pointing to a Republican victory. A few (such as IL-17, IA-03, NY-22 or GA-06) I think could go either way. I almost chose MN-07, but Dem Colin Peterson has defied his district’s lean for so long, and he voted no on impeachment. So kept MN-07 as up for grabs. I am not nearly as informed on national House races as several folks on this forum, so I invite additional info and opposing opinions. But, please, be gentle.
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| State/District | 2016 Trump Margin | Cook Rating | Republican Candidate | |
| AZ-01 | 4 pts | R+2 | Tiffany Shedd | |
| GA-06 | 1.5 pts | R+8 | Karen Handel | |
| IL-14 | < 4 pts | R+5 | Jim Oberweis | |
| IL-17 | 0.7 pts | D+3 | Esther J. King* | |
| IA-01 | 3.5 pts | D+1 | Ashley Hinson | |
| IA-02 (open) | 4 pts | D+1 | Mariannette Miller-Meeks* | |
| IA-03 | 3.5 pts | R+1 | Former Rep. David Young | |
| ME-02 | >10 pts | R+2 | Dale Crafts | |
| MI-08 | <7 pts | R+4 | Paul Junge | |
| MI-11 | >3 pts | R+4 | Eric Esshaki | |
| MN-02 | >1 pt | R+2 | Tyler Kistner* | |
| MN-07 | <31 pts | R+12 | LtGov Michelle Fischbach | |
| NV-03 | 1 pt | R+2 | ”Big Dan” Rodimer | |
| NH-01 | 1.6 pts | R+2 | Matt Mowers | |
| NJ-03 | >6 pts | R+2 | David Richter | |
| NJ-05 | 1 pt | R+3 | Frank Pallotta | |
| NJ-11 | <1 pt | R+3 | Rosemary Becchi | |
| NM-02 | ~10 pts | R+6 | Yvette Herrell | |
| NY-11 | <10 pts | R+3 | Nicole Malliotakis | |
| NY-19 | <7 pts | R+2 | Kyle Van De Water* | |
| NY-22 | <15 pts | R+6 | Former Rep. Claudia Tenney | |
| OK-05 | ~13 pts | R+10 | Stephanie Bice | |
| PA-08 | <10 pts | ??? | Jim Bognet | |
| PA-17 | 2.6 pts | ??? | Sean Parnell* | |
| SC-01 | 13 pts | R+10 | Nancy Mace | |
| UT-04 | <7 pts | R+13 | NFL player Burgess Owens | |
| VA-02 | 3.4 pts | R+3 | Former Rep. Scott Taylor* | |
| VA-07 | 6.5 pts | R+6 | Nick Freitas* | |
| WI-03 | 4.5 pts | Even | Derrick Van Orden* | |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| State/District | 2016 Trump Margin | Cook Rating | Republican Candidate | |
| NY-24 | -3.6 pts | D+3 | Rep. John Katko | |
| PA-01 | -2 pts | D+2 | Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick | |
| TX-23 (open) | -3.4 pts | R+1 | Tony Gonzales* | |
I have not been impressed at all with the NRCC. Its home page is not user friendly, and the little bit of news on races seems always to be from the Dem perspective. I understand the egregious media bias, but the NRCC can still set its own agenda. However, the Trump campaign hasn’t made a lot of noise about Republicans recapturing the House. Perhaps they truly don’t believe it’s possible, but based on the numbers above I think it’s do-able. However, in order of likelihood it’s 1) Trump wins a second term, 2) the GOP holds the Senate, and 3) the GOP flips the House.
Excellent!!
Has Nancy been promising a peaceful transition of power should she lose the House? They keep bringing it up about Trump. Turnabout and FairPlay
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“Has Nancy been promising a peaceful transition of power should she lose the House?”
No she hasn’t.
All Democrats will do exactly as Pelosi says, regardless of what lies they tell during the campaign. Since they did away with earmarks, the speaker of the House is now almost all-powerful, and you can bet everyone in his or her party must toe the line. That is why it is imperative that Republicans take control of the House and maintain control of the Senate. The leaders of the 2 legislative bodies call all the shots.
It’s possible that he’s saying that we need to pick up 20 net House seats because (i) he’s counting MI-03 (where Amash left the GOP) as a seat that we need to pick up and (ii) he’s facing up to the reality that the Dems automatically will pick up two seats in NC that were redrawn (at the insistence of the state’s RAT Supreme Court) to be heavily Democrat (and that the GOP has no chance of holding).
BTW, some of the pickups that you list in bold sre far from a sure thing, but one seat that I would put in bold is MN-07. I ackowledge what you wrote about Collin Peterson having survived for three decades, but (i) his district has become far, far more Republican during tbe past five years, (ii) he faced an underfunded nobody in 2016, which allowed him to survive despite Trump crushing Hillary atop tb ballot, (iii) in 2018 he faced another nobody, albeit with a bit more funding, and barely won reelection despite having become a committee chairman the depressed GOP turnout in those midterms, and (iv) he now is tacing a well funded, top-tier opponent (with near-universal name-ID in the CD thanks to her past service as Lt. Gov.) in a presidential election year. Peterson should have switched parties when he had the chance, be ause he’s going to lose by at least 5% on Tuesday.
LOL no.
We lost the House cause 30 incumbents lost.
We held most of our open seats and of the opens we lost, the incumbents likely would have lost as well except for a couple.
Outside chance?
If that’s not 100% and I think it is despite what some polls says, then we have no chance at the House.
I think AZ-9 (Trump ain’t gonna carry it) is a windmill to tilt at. Segal, who has me-to issues, would fare no better than Antonio Sabato Jr.
AZ-2 is a much better target.
But this year AZ-1 looks like the only race.
This is my theory and I’m sticking to it.
There ain’t gonna be a lot of split tickets especially not Trump/Rat for House or Senate.
Districts that go Trump by any kind of margin will go GOP, period. That means this queer in SC, Max Rose in Staten Island, the commie in Southern NM, Kendra Horn in OKC, Collin Peterson the old moderate in MN, are gone unless Biden is winning or almost winning their districts somehow. These pricks (other than Peterson in a heavilly R seat) voted to impeach, you’d have to be scitzo to vote for Trump and them. The bigger danger is mouth breather who might vote the top and skip the rest.
If Trump is winning that means we at least come close to the House.
If Trump can actually win the “popular” vote as some think then I’d say it’s at least an 75% chance of a GOP House though it’s hard to count beyond the mid 220s at most.
btt
I know fleeing Connectistan are conservative, and who can blame them? I hope to follow as soon as next summer!
Welcome to Texas!
The state legislature races are always interesting in CT, especially with such small House districts.
GOP does better in midterms here.
I hope our incumbents survive.
I’m in LD 1 with O’Halloran. Hope Tiffany Shedd is able to defeat him.
I grew up in MI-6/still have family there...your take is 100% spot on.
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