Of course, my hope is that Trump has coattails enough to carry these seats along with him especially since I believe, without overwhelming evidence, that he will get the independents.
Your thoughts?
Posted on 11/01/2020 6:14:43 AM PST by Coop
Here’s the original thread. It unfortunately did not stimulate discussion as I had hoped, but c’est la vie on FR. Reminder: The GOP needs a net gain of only 17 seats to retire Nancy Pelosi as speaker.
There are 30 Dem House representatives in districts Trump won. I keep hearing that the Dems are not only going to hold the House, but expand their majority. I find that hard to believe based on the below numbers.
GOP advantages are the numbers shown below (30 Trump-district Dem seats to defend vs. 3 Clinton-district GOP seats), as well as having Trump on the top of the ticket (unlike 2018 when we lost most of these seats). The GOP disadvantage is most of these Democrats are incumbents and very well funded. There are two open seats (no incumbent) in the below tables: IA-02 and TX-23. GOP candidates running in swing states will benefit from Trump & RNC money & get-out-the-vote operations. Republicans running in states like NJ and NY will need more of their own campaign money & hopefully NRCC funding.
The Cook partisan voting index (PVI) shows how a district leans, right or left, based on previous elections. WI-03 is rated as “even” on the Cook scale, meaning it is as “down the middle” as a district can get. R+2 means a district is about two points more Republican than WI-03, and D+7 means a district is about 7 point more Democratic than WI-03. Cook ratings for PA-08 and PA-17 are marked with question marks due to redistricting (these districts didn’t exist in this form during the last POTUS election, and I was finding conflicting information).
Since originally publishing that thread, I have found quite a bit of encouraging news in GOP candidates actually outraising their incumbent Dem counterparts. Polls, which I do not care for, actually show competitive races and GOP leads in quite a few of my list of 30. Plus it appears the GOP is in good shape to hold CA-50 (Duncan Hunter’s old seat) and in decent shape to hold Don Bacon’s NE-02 seat, as well as one of the three Clinton won seats (the other two are up for grabs). I emboldened the seats I am especially bullish about flipping (or holding, in the case of GOP Rep. Fitzpatrick), based on polling, fundraising, the national GOP turnout numbers I’m seeing, and the presumed RNC/Trump get-out-the-vote efforts through election day. Just because I did not embolden a name doesn’t mean I don’t think they can win. It just means they’re either not in a swing state and/or I haven’t seen much evidence pointing to a Republican victory. A few (such as IL-17, IA-03, NY-22 or GA-06) I think could go either way. I almost chose MN-07, but Dem Colin Peterson has defied his district’s lean for so long, and he voted no on impeachment. So kept MN-07 as up for grabs. I am not nearly as informed on national House races as several folks on this forum, so I invite additional info and opposing opinions. But, please, be gentle.
|
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| State/District | 2016 Trump Margin | Cook Rating | Republican Candidate | |
| AZ-01 | 4 pts | R+2 | Tiffany Shedd | |
| GA-06 | 1.5 pts | R+8 | Karen Handel | |
| IL-14 | < 4 pts | R+5 | Jim Oberweis | |
| IL-17 | 0.7 pts | D+3 | Esther J. King* | |
| IA-01 | 3.5 pts | D+1 | Ashley Hinson | |
| IA-02 (open) | 4 pts | D+1 | Mariannette Miller-Meeks* | |
| IA-03 | 3.5 pts | R+1 | Former Rep. David Young | |
| ME-02 | >10 pts | R+2 | Dale Crafts | |
| MI-08 | <7 pts | R+4 | Paul Junge | |
| MI-11 | >3 pts | R+4 | Eric Esshaki | |
| MN-02 | >1 pt | R+2 | Tyler Kistner* | |
| MN-07 | <31 pts | R+12 | LtGov Michelle Fischbach | |
| NV-03 | 1 pt | R+2 | ”Big Dan” Rodimer | |
| NH-01 | 1.6 pts | R+2 | Matt Mowers | |
| NJ-03 | >6 pts | R+2 | David Richter | |
| NJ-05 | 1 pt | R+3 | Frank Pallotta | |
| NJ-11 | <1 pt | R+3 | Rosemary Becchi | |
| NM-02 | ~10 pts | R+6 | Yvette Herrell | |
| NY-11 | <10 pts | R+3 | Nicole Malliotakis | |
| NY-19 | <7 pts | R+2 | Kyle Van De Water* | |
| NY-22 | <15 pts | R+6 | Former Rep. Claudia Tenney | |
| OK-05 | ~13 pts | R+10 | Stephanie Bice | |
| PA-08 | <10 pts | ??? | Jim Bognet | |
| PA-17 | 2.6 pts | ??? | Sean Parnell* | |
| SC-01 | 13 pts | R+10 | Nancy Mace | |
| UT-04 | <7 pts | R+13 | NFL player Burgess Owens | |
| VA-02 | 3.4 pts | R+3 | Former Rep. Scott Taylor* | |
| VA-07 | 6.5 pts | R+6 | Nick Freitas* | |
| WI-03 | 4.5 pts | Even | Derrick Van Orden* | |
|
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| State/District | 2016 Trump Margin | Cook Rating | Republican Candidate | |
| NY-24 | -3.6 pts | D+3 | Rep. John Katko | |
| PA-01 | -2 pts | D+2 | Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick | |
| TX-23 (open) | -3.4 pts | R+1 | Tony Gonzales* | |
I have not been impressed at all with the NRCC. Its home page is not user friendly, and the little bit of news on races seems always to be from the Dem perspective. I understand the egregious media bias, but the NRCC can still set its own agenda. However, the Trump campaign hasn’t made a lot of noise about Republicans recapturing the House. Perhaps they truly don’t believe it’s possible, but based on the numbers above I think it’s do-able. However, in order of likelihood it’s 1) Trump wins a second term, 2) the GOP holds the Senate, and 3) the GOP flips the House.
Ping
It looks like perfect GOTV weather nationally on Election Day (day 3 on map). Thank you, Lord.
https://weatherstreet.com/states/u-s-weather-forecast.htm
Thanks...this looks pretty encouraging....
Would love to see SanFran Nan grudgingly hand over the gavel once again...
Let’s give Jim Jordan the gavel and really knock some heads together...
If I remember correctly, over 40 GOPes retired right before the 2018 election. With that happening The Mickey Mouse Party could have taken control of the House.
It’s going to be much different this election.
“Let’s give Jim Jordan the gavel and really knock some heads together...”
The RNC should be running stories that: “...When the dems lose and if necessary we are prepared to have the military take the Gavel from Pelosi...”
Of course, my hope is that Trump has coattails enough to carry these seats along with him especially since I believe, without overwhelming evidence, that he will get the independents.
Your thoughts?
That is my first choice. POTUS needs a strong ally, not another Ryan.
I love this excerpt from that poll:
Among those who have already voted, Biden leads 55% to 32%. And among those who have yet to vote, Trump leads 64% to 28%.
I don’t mind the low profile of the GOP Senate and House campaigns. This is exactly how 2016 played out.
The Democrats in Trump districts will have a problem if there is no ticket splitting. The Trump wave if there is one could do the job. People don’t usually split their ticket.
Thanks for your good work.
Well hopefully we retake the house. But don’t look for Jim Jordan to get the gavel. To become speaker you need 218 votes. Most GOP reps are moderates. That’s how you always get guys like Ryan, Scalise or McCarthy. Look for Scalise to be the new speaker if we take back the house. Maybe McCarthy.
It would be nice to see us get back some of those “harvested”(stolen) seats in Cali that we lost on 2018.
I think McCathy has already laid claim. Jordan would be my choice, he’s been a warrior in the hearings.
My friends Lamb in Pa-17 is the key. A pretty-boy vet who won by 17(2018) in a district Trump won by 3 in 2016. He supposedly is a moderate who does what Pelosi says. We have our own vet running-not so pretty.
Jordan would also be my choice but unlikely to get enough votes. We are on the cusp of electing a supposedly very conservative doctor/veteran to GA dist 7 house seat. Rich Mccormick.
AZ-2 (former McSally district) was always moderately Republican. Even Az-9 could be in contention, especially if AZ State students skip the vote.
Here’s to a RED wave down the ticket.
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