Posted on 10/15/2020 11:41:33 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
When Fake News does not work, the media turns to Fake Polls. Just as in 2016 with Hillary Clinton, most of the media polls are giving Joe Biden a double-digit lead on President Donald Trump. Last week, a Wall Street Journal/NBC News Survey gave Biden a 14-point lead over the President. Sounds bad but remember that this very same poll gave Hillary Clinton the same big lead over Donald Trump exactly four years ago, and we all know what happened on election day. The WSJ/NBC News poll is not alone. If you look at the Real Clear Politics average of national polls, it is solid blue, with most of the media polls giving Biden a double-digit lead. Even the IBD/TIPP Poll has the race at a 8.5 point Biden advantage.
There are other polls that show the race as being tight, such as the John Zogby Strategies-EMI Research Solutions Poll (Biden +2) and The Sunday Express/Democracy Institute survey (Trump +1). So, what is the difference? The polls that show Biden when huge leads oversample Democrats from 6-10 points, for one thing, and a few still sample registered vs likely voters.
Of course, some do not release their “internals” or polling methodology. It almost seems like the same media outlets who produce fake news stories about President Trump are producing fake polls that show him losing, just like in 2016. In the words of the late New York Yankees Hall of Famer Yogi Berra, “It's deja vu all over again”.
Most legitimate state polls tell a different story, and with our republican (small r) Electoral College system, it is the states that count.
State polls by the Trafalgar Group, which is the most accurate state pollster in the 2016 and 2018 elections, are very favorable to the President,
(Excerpt) Read more at msn.com ...
Because its agitprop. It’s about demoralization and creating an inevitable false impression.
It is pretty easy to track this data state by state/
Using the state polls along with a little common sense, President Trump had an almost certain lock on 28 states with 258 electoral votes, leaving him just 12 shy of victory (270).
That leaves 8 states that are now in the ‘tossup’ category with a total of 74 electoral votes. The President has at least a 50% or better chance of winning half of these, easily putting him over the top.
Great post and article! First time I’ve been to MSN in a long time. Well worth the read.
I wonder about motivations.
My guess is that it’s confirmation bias.
They tweek until they see what they want to see.
Because I don’t understand how saying Biden is up 12 percent or whatever works to their political advantage. Does it make people more likely to vote? Donate? Volunteer?
Does it make r’s less likely to vote, donate, or volunteer?
Some may be discouraged, but some may be motivated. It can go either way. So “agitprop” makes little sense to me. “Agitprop” didn’t help Hilary it would seem.
“In the words of the late New York Yankees Hall of Famer Yogi Berra, “It’s deja vu all over again.”
It’s not the Election of 2016 all over again, it is the Election of 1984 all over again.
Coast to coast sweep for the incumbent.
Socialists tears are delicious!
Also from the article...
Aside from the numbers, there are other factors that make President Trump’s re-election likely. New voter registration numbers are tilted heavily toward the Republican side, in some cases by 2 to 1 or more.
The Trump campaign is also knocking on a million doors a week as opposed to the anemic Democrat ground game. While Biden is supposedly leading here in PA, their campaign suddenly announced they were starting a ground game here. Why do that if you are comfortably in the lead?
Voter enthusiasm also goes to the GOP, with the internals of one of the fake polls that found 91% of Trump supporters were certain they would vote this year, while only 67% of Biden supporters said the same, so it seems that the lack of Dem enthusiasm for Biden shown at his rallies is reflected in the polling data.
I’d like to see a breakdown of his8 “tossup” states.
I can tell you if two of them are Florida and North Carolina, both of those are going for Trump.
People only throw the incumbent overboard if things are going terribly wrong in the country.
Not when 56% say they are better off than four years ago.
And when an incumbent is taken down it’s done by an unusually articulate, attractive candidate (Reagan, Bill C.). Not by a doddering masked nursing home patient who can’t recall what day it is.
Doesn’t add-up indeed.
Fear not
If lazy democrats think it’s in the bag they won’t take a day off to go vote.
Or if they take the day off, they won’t go to the polls
It’s building a narrative that there’s no way Trump could have won fairly if the polls were showing Biden up so much for so long...it’s all they’ve got at this point.
Just like with Hillary.
As for de-motivation a big poll advantage I would think it will lead to some Joe voters think they don’t have to show up.
I went to early vote today. Best guestimate was the line was about 1/2 mile. Took an hour to get inside polling place. I have voted in every election I can for 40 years and have never seen this kind of crowd even on the actual election day.
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