Posted on 07/23/2020 12:59:43 PM PDT by dalight
Abstract:
There is wide variation between countries in per-capita mortality from COVID-19 (caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus). Determinants of this variation are not fully understood. Methods. Potential predictors of per-capita coronavirus-related mortality in 198 countries were examined, including age, sex ratio, obesity prevalence, temperature, urbanization, smoking, duration of infection, lockdowns, viral testing, contact tracing policies, and public mask-wearing norms and policies. Multivariable linear regression analysis was performed. Results. In univariate analyses, the prevalence of smoking, per-capita gross domestic product, urbanization, and colder average country temperature were positively associated with coronavirus-related mortality. In a multivariable analysis of 194 countries, the duration of infection in the country, and the proportion of the population 60 years of age or older were positively associated with per-capita mortality, while duration of mask-wearing by the public was negatively associated with mortality (all p<0.001). The prevalence of obesity was independently associated with mortality in models which controlled for testing levels or policy. International travel restrictions were independently associated with lower per-capita mortality, but other containment measures and viral testing and tracing policies were not. In countries with cultural norms or government policies supporting public mask-wearing, per-capita coronavirus mortality increased on average by just 7.2% each week, as compared with 55.0% each week in remaining countries. On multivariable analysis, lockdowns tended to be associated with less mortality (p=0.41), and increased per-capita testing with higher reported mortality (p=0.55), though neither association was statistically significant. Conclusions. Societal norms and government policies supporting the wearing of masks by the public, as well as international travel controls, are independently associated with lower per-capita mortality from COVID-19.
Non-peer reviewed, and one of the authors is the same one interviewed for the piece put out by Stanford that I did a quick Fisk and found polemic rather than scientific evidence.
This paper seems constructed better but it is not. It uses conjecture and then derives a naked guestimate and offers this to guide the universal requirement to wear face masks.
“A conservative assessment applied to the COVID-19 estimated R0 of 2.4 (7) might posit 50% mask usage and a 50% mask efficacy level, reducing Re to 1.35, an order of magnitude impact rendering spread comparable to the reproduction num- ber of seasonal influenza.”
This is the heart of this paper, a simple guess dressed in fancy language that flies in the face of numerous RCT studies that come to the exact opposite conclusion.
Well done and well said indeed.
Good post.
COVID seems to be a bit different than a simple flu in that it really attacks the surfaces that it initially reaches though it has also been seen to attack the vascular system as well as the nasal passages, bronchial tubes, and lungs. This is why the surprisingly effective application of inhaled steroids has been found to be quite effective in relieving the most distressing symptoms.
“Several strands of evidence.. “ is not the basis for universal oppression. The same paper that proved to be a joke otherwise.
Agreed, Democrats and the Press ignore results and proceed on wishes. But, if lockdown and universal facemasks worked, California would be free of the virus, and they are not. Instead, they have seen a 162% increase in identified cases.
The most likely culprits are air conditioning and the riots that sent COVID into whole new family groups to walk through their connections.
“The most likely culprits are air conditioning and the riots”
I agree. Clamp down on the rioting and require HEPA filtering of business AC units.
;-)
Naw.. HEPA Filtration would require a redesign of the AC unit entirely. The fast, cheap and effective solution is to add Intense UV light unites to the vents prior to or after the chiller and fan units.
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