Posted on 07/11/2020 10:17:31 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
The polls have been in the news lately because Democrats are celebrating the lead Biden appears to hold while Republicans are worried that the Wuhan virus lockdowns and Black Lives Matters riots will harm Trump. Three news items, however, illustrate just how meaningless polls are in modern politics.
The first item is the most worrying: According to an ABC News/Ipsos poll, 67% of Americans disapprove of what Trump has done regarding the Wuhan Virus. Yikes!
Interestingly, the poll methodology does not say how the poll was weighted between Republicans and Democrats. It says only that it oversampled blacks and Hispanic respondents. Make of that what you will.
This is the same kind of scary poll that had Biden with a “double-digit advantage on President Trump” in a national poll. What most people miss is that America doesn’t have national elections. America has 50 state elections plus the District of Columbia. That’s different.
Still, the poll is disturbing for a specific reason. Some leftists have figured out that the Electoral College matters. They need to do what Trump did (and Hillary didn’t) in 2016, which is to target Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Bradley Beychok, a representative from the Democrat super PAC American Bridge 21st Century recently boasted at USA Today that the PAC is working on convincing voters that Trump ruined the economy, which has been his consistent strength. They intend to do that by attacking his Wuhan virus response:
Among the swing voters who will help decide this election, President Trump still maintains a significant advantage over presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden on the question of who is best suited to lead America out of this economic crisis.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
No, it is clear; they are meaningless...Rasmussen, Foxnews polls, crap...538...crap. Suppression polls...
The polls said Hillary had a 95% chance of winning.
Have they fixed all that by now?
I stopped looking at polls once every poll had a 40-50% D sample against a real world electorate with 29%.
They do this to every republican every year - then all of a sudden, around the end of Oct, they start tightening up, because the pollsters who want to stay in business don't want to be discredited.
Except for Fox and a few others, whose polling is always fraudulent... every time.
The only polls that are close to being accurate are those, such as Rasmussen, that survey likely voters.
Next level down are “registered voters”. And the polls that survey “adults” are crap.
RE: I stopped looking at polls once every poll had a 40-50% D sample against a real world electorate with 29%.
But is this the case in most polls?
Polls are designed and meant to shape opinions, not reflect them
I live in a Pittsburgh, PA suburb. We have been inundated with an anti-Trump ad for weeks, if not months.
This ad, about “Janie,” from Westmoreland County, PA:
PA: Roots by American Bridge 21st Century https://youtu.be/k_W6_52CuU8
“It’s unclear if the polls about Trump currently mean anything”
You are absolutely CORRECT!
It’s VERY CLEAR, THEY DON’T MEAN $HIT!
It’s safe to say they mean as much as the polls meant in 2016.
What a load.
Most of the conservatives I know either refuses to talk to them or they lie. The polls do not mean much.
Most older voters either do not answer span calls or do not talk to pollsters. This skews results to younger, more liberal voters and older dingbats.
I am the excerption to this. If a pollster calls I listen for a while and then give them a sales pitch on the benefits of a high colonic.
The current polling is all part of the lead up to a stolen election thru the use of mail in voting. All the Democrat controlled polls are showing Joe Biden in the lead. The man can’t draw a crowd big enough to fill a short bus like he rode to school. After months of polls showing Biden in the lead by 15 points the election will come around and if Joe pulls off a win (stolen) even by two or three points they will immediately say the polls
Were wrong but always favored Joe.
This us basically the same technique being used in schools to indoctrinate our children.
And we will be expected to accept it.
You have to drill down. Deep.
Trump is outperforming with Hispanics about 3% vs 2016.
The big issue for Democrats and why the entire riot summer was started is Trump has made huge gains with black males. He got them jobs. Black women overrepresented in govt jobs and he made no inroads there, but with males, 10%.
GOP president candidates typically get about 9% of the black vote. Trump, with the males, is on his way to 15%. They can’t win losing 15% of the black vote.
Oversampling sub-groups is common practice, for legitimate purposes. You need a certain number of each category, to have a reasonable margin of error; so, you oversample the minority category. You then divide by the rate of oversampling to even things out for overall results. Such oversampling is actually good practice — as opposed to oversampling Dems, and not adjusting those figures.
Why would anybody believe their polls are legit? The news is all fake except for the polls /s
‘Polls are designed and meant to shape opinions, not reflect them’
yes, you’re correct; but in my opinion, everyone should shut up about them until the third week in October, when they take on real significance...everyone on this forum keeps saying the polls favored Clinton by 95 percent; that is complete bunk... the final RCP polling composite had Clinton winning with 273 EV’s, hardly a resounding victory, and definitely not out of the realm of possibility...
When you show me 1 single poll that asks the following:
Who did you vote for last time?
And who do you plan to vote for this time?
That shows any movement away from Trump, that is not more than countered by movement toward him, I’ll begin to worry about this fall.
Every poll that has asked and published those questions has always shown Trump’s existing support rock solid...and growing...
I don’t care what they claim their overall numbers “show”
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