Russia closes its eastern border as killer coronavirus spreads to EVERY region of China: Death toll jumps to 170 and almost 8,000 people have caught the deadly SARS-like infection worldwide

UK Daily Mail ^ | January 30, 2020 | Stephen Mathews, Sam Blanchard, and Connor Boyd

[C19fan]

Russia has closed its border with China in a desperate bid to prevent the spread of the deadly coronavirus that has so far killed 170 people.

The drastic measure was announced on Thursday after every corner of China was confirmed to have cases of the highly contagious disease.

Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said the drastic measure was necessary because the country 'had to do everything it could to protect its people'. He said it would come into effect immediately.

As well as shutting off the Far East border, Russia has limited all railway links with China from January 31, leaving only direct trains between Moscow and Beijing.

[null and void]

And if we do the calculations based on a cohort who all got sick about the same time, they could be MUCH higher. If we lump in everyone who has only shown symptoms recently, the reported number will be falsely low.

A better number might be based on how many died/how many recovered.

Have you seen a report of how many recovered? I can’t recall one, but that just might be my own mental vapor-lock.

[romanesq]

Hahahaha. True, and they have better border control and don’t mess around.

[deadrock]

Thanks.

[palmer]

Have you seen a report of how many recovered? I can’t recall one, but that just might be my own mental vapor-lock.

The problem with those stats is they only count acute (hospitalized) cases. We simply don't know the range of symptoms. If there are cases with mild symptoms they won't be counted.

[null and void]

That might not be as big a problem as it seems. I’m pretty sure non-hospitalized cases aren’t counted at all. They wouldn’t show up as either a numerator or denominator.

Non-hospital deaths would be written off as ‘pneumonia’, old age, or the old Nazi favorite cause of concentration camp deaths - ‘heart failure’. That would tend to balance out the the also under reported non-hospital setting mild cases.

No matter, we’ll never get accurate numbers from China.

There are plenty of other countries that will soon be able to report their own accurate statistics.

Let me speculate/guess?

For every 100 exposed, 60 made ill, for every 60 sick, 30 recover with rest, fluids, OTC medicine, 30 need hospital treatment, 20 of those will need ICU/respiratory support, as long as there is enough oxygen and mechanical ventilation available 15 of those will fully recover, 5 will die or have chronic lung damage. Given the availability of ventilators, the long term rate will be “close” (whatever that means!) to 4%.

Any side bets?

[AppyPappy]

The only thing missing from this whole story is Baghdad Bob

[PIF]

I could have sworn I read a post on FR last week where someone declared 90,000 died in one city.

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That was what a female doctor in wuhan said - in a verified translation by resident FR Chinese...All numbers from CCP (officially release) are bogus.

[PIF]

A Chinese nurse said 90,000 was infected.

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A mistranslation. Not a nurse a doctor. Her heavy western accent is difficult to understand unless native. She used the word for DEAD, not infected.

[PIF]

How can the Rooskies seal a border if the US can’t?

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The Russians do not have Possie Commatatus.

But they do station their best armies and best equipment on the Chinese boarder in case hostilities resume.

Crossing the Russian boarder illegally, if caught, you are shot dead. No questions no lawyers just the bullet(s).

[deadrock]

Ok. Thanks.