You say “at best”, which is entirely tpo pessimistic, if not down right defeatist. There is a very good chance that he picks up New Mexico and Nevada this time around as well, I bade my belief on the fact that his campaign is far more data driven than any other campaign in American history. We shall see.
A defeatist would say Trump will lose. A pessimist would say he will win by an equal or fewer number of EVs. My analysis is called being realistic and not Pollyanna, i.e. Swinging New Mexico by 821 basis points.
I think he will win by a wider margin than last time, but we need to keep the hammer down to battle fraud and every dirty trick they'll use this time around. I'd rather focus resources on PA vs a dream of getting NM.