A defeatist would say Trump will lose. A pessimist would say he will win by an equal or fewer number of EVs. My analysis is called being realistic and not Pollyanna, i.e. Swinging New Mexico by 821 basis points.
I think he will win by a wider margin than last time, but we need to keep the hammer down to battle fraud and every dirty trick they'll use this time around. I'd rather focus resources on PA vs a dream of getting NM.
Pay attention to the data analytics the Trump campaign uses - they know what they’re doing.
And I am an optimist.