I’d say the likelihood of his prediction is about 200%. But, what are the alternatives?
15 members of the US military have died in that country fighting, what amounts to, a mafia family or Cartel. Nothing more. There is no more strategic value in fighting the Taliban, opium growers or anyone else in that place.
We either go back there, in force and make them our subjects, kick out the Chinese and take their natural resources or we pull out.
The Chinese have, or are about to, roped the Afghani’s into a debt trap. Afghani leadership is just as manipulative and greedy as any on the planet and will take the money, run and move to Dubai or Doha, before they get their heads chopped off.
It’s one or the other.
qaz123 where do you get “15 members of the US military have died in that country.?” The article states “more than 2,200 Americans have been killed there since the conflict began.” How many more young men have to die to save forces that occasionally shoot us in the back? Afghanistan is a “shithole.” It was one before we got there and will be one long after we leave. The Chinese will own Afghanistan. How many Chinese youthshave died there?