Few people would care, just like so many didn’t care in 1975.
Just so long as they remain comfortable is what they care about
Staying could lead to our collapse.
Well we barely make the airport
For the last plane out
As we taxied down the runway
I could hear the people shout
They said, “don’t come back here Yankee”
But if I ever do
I’ll bring more money
‘Cause all she wants to do is dance
And make romance
Never mind the heat
Comin’ off the street
She wants to party
She wants to get down
All she wants to do is
All she wants to do is dance
I’d say the likelihood of his prediction is about 200%. But, what are the alternatives?
15 members of the US military have died in that country fighting, what amounts to, a mafia family or Cartel. Nothing more. There is no more strategic value in fighting the Taliban, opium growers or anyone else in that place.
We either go back there, in force and make them our subjects, kick out the Chinese and take their natural resources or we pull out.
The Chinese have, or are about to, roped the Afghani’s into a debt trap. Afghani leadership is just as manipulative and greedy as any on the planet and will take the money, run and move to Dubai or Doha, before they get their heads chopped off.
It’s one or the other.
South Vietnam lasted 3 years after the complete withdrawal of US forces, but only because the North was getting massive infusions of Chinese and Soviet aid even while the US was cutting aid to South Vietnam. Najibullah lasted 3 years after the withdrawal of Soviet troops, but his government fell only after Soviet aid was cut off. Assuming US aid to the Afghan security forces remains at around $5b a year, there’s no reason to think the Afghan government will fall.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_in_the_Vietnam_War#Confronting_U.S._escalation
https://www.cbo.gov/system/files?file=2018-10/54219-oco_spending.pdf
The reality of counter-insurgency is that it takes decades, assuming the government is unwilling to engage in mass killings that remove significant numbers of enemy civilians from the chessboard. The Colombian counterinsurgency war has been going on for 50+ years. Morocco fought its Berber rebels for 16 years. The Injuns, of course, gave up their fight only after 300+ years of armed resistance.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colombian_conflict
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_Sahara_War
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Indian_Wars
A conflict often touted as a shining example of British proficiency in counter-insurgency nonetheless lasted 40 years.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malayan_Emergency
Pre-Sept 11, Al Queda was brought in as the military arm of the Taliban. Why is there still a Taliban???!
Frankly, Afghanistan is a lost cause - 8 years of Obama has ensured that.
The fact that we are negotiating directly with the re constituted Taliban, which was seriously put fown under President Bush speaks volumes.
It’s not for nothing that a defense intelligence expert told Congress , “ the Taliban is inside the building “ . That building included the White House
No $hit Sherlock!
Were out of here!! The ass wipes can have it.
Well, maybe the “government” should have spent the last 10+ years establishing itself rather than enriching itself.....
meh
Yahoo ain’t where I go to get analysis
Making the case for never ending wars.
And this time, we don't bail the animals out with Stingers and covert support. China will bleed from the eyes...
One more thing. China smuggles opium into the US, to those dim enough to use it. Junkies kill themselves with it. We just lost a cure for cancer? This century old experiment in social engineering called the Drug War is a failure.
I don’t give a damn. Let them kill each other.
of course the way to effectively cancel a “what if “ scenario is to pull out of Afghanistan and nuke the crap out of the entire country.
Except this time the U.S. won’t be a refuge for them.
As I predicted 48 hours after the towers fell, George W. Bush elected to fight a Vietnam war in South Asia.
And, as TomasUSMC always says, "fight like Nam, finish like Nam".
So, since Vietnam wars always end with the last chopper off the roof of the American embassy, that's how Afghanistan has to end.
What a waste.
So?
Oddly, I worry more about another 9/11.
If there was a change of rules, the problem would end
For every dead American, there must be 25 dead Taliban. That includes Taliban in Burkas.
Then, kill off those at the funerals
He’s a Muslim and a former FBI agent, which means that anything he says is likely to be the precise opposite of what is true.