Posted on 02/07/2019 9:15:19 AM PST by caww
“Putin wants the United States out of the region and to cement Assad’s hold on power in Damascus...that’s the end game.”
And attacking Iranians in Syria supports this, how?
are russians and iranians competing for control of Syria?
“are russians and iranians competing for control of Syria?”
Isn’t everyone?
Yes: China!
Don’t much trust this report.
But there are reputable reports that Iran is being forced out of their using the Damascus airport for arms transfers. Syria and Russia tired of Israel bombing it.
Iran will have to use a less well-positioned airbase henceforth.
China wants peace in the ME, for lots of good reasons, and they’re willing to pay Russia and Iran to get it.
A China hegemony stretching from Korea to the Mediterranean would be a power to reckon with.
I’m responding to the comment about Russia attacking Iranian interests in Syria.
I think any kind of hostile action by Iran on Syria would be disastrous - for Iran! And they should be smart enough to know it. The two countries have close ties, the mutual defense agreement (how sincere that is is anybody’s guess, and whether it’s still really applicable with 50,000 Russians in place).
Unfortunately, or fortunately, we didn’t have the stomach for Iran after Iraq. But for all of the IEDs they helped plant in Iraq that killed and maimed thousands of Americans, they should have paid a price. I’m sickened by Obama’s stupid corrupt deal with Iran and glad Trump revoked it almost immediately upon taking office. Obama made no sense, regime change everywhere but Iran? It’s almost too obvious to figure out.
But it’s been profitable for Iran with Syria, they are smuggling drugs and weapons through Syria into Lebanon and Gaza and Europe. Assad gets his cut. Assad will hold on, I think even Israel prefers the known to the unknown. Assad was paranoid afraid of Obama - not Israel. Obama put out his “regime change ‘red line’”, then revoked it, and all his vacillating was plain bad diplomacy and forced Assad to invite Russia in to protect him.
That Obama, the US State Dept etc did not see the Russian move coming is alarming. The MSM of course always covers up for the mistakes of Democrats but aside from Benghazi and the Iran deal, not seeing or knowing or stopping Syria from inviting Russia in was perhaps the biggest diplomatic blunder in decades. We had the Soviets/Russians completely out of the entire sphere with Carter’s Camp David and after they were defeated in Afghanistan... and by sheer stupidity, ignorance or folly now the Russians have a foothold in the Middle East and warm water ports in the Mediterranean.
Obama was a disaster who faced no real criticism not even from the opposition.
As far as I know the S-300s are deployed but are still not activated. It was, imo, a chess board or diplomatic threat. The Russians were very angry that Israel shot down one of their planes. They had to respond. So they put those S-300s into Syria. But I don’t think Russia has any interest in shooting down Israeli planes or stopping attacks on Iranian positions in Syria.
Also as I understand it, they installed a “hot line” like the one Kennedy and Kruschev had, between Netanyahu in Israel and Putin in Russia, so Israel can notify Russia of its intents and Russians can redeploy forces that may be near any target.
So I don’t know if the S-300s will ever be activated. Russia probably doesn’t want to find out how well they work, and using them will give away their signature. Israel is even using the F35 among its other craft and most of the air raids are shot from outside Syrian airspace. I don’t know if the Russians can or will want to shoot at Israeli craft over Lebanon, or Israeli territory let alone over Syria.
The Middle East has always been a proving ground between Western weapons and Eastern Europe weapons. All the wars with Israel between 1950-1975 were proxy wars between US/UK/France vs Soviets. And tiny Israel crushed the enemies each time. There was a war of attrition between Egypt and Israel where Russian Pilots were flying Russian Mig fighters under Egyptian flags, and the Israeli pilots shot many of them down. They shot down 7 Migs in one 5 minute period. Many more planes went down in other clashes. That was actually one of the things that enabled Carter to turn Egypt from a Soviet client and into a US patron. Sadat saw that the Soviet stuff was crap, that they couldn’t win even with Russians controlling the equipment - and so Egypt’s best interest was to make peace and flip sides.
And as I wrote above, 50 years after being completely frozen out of the ME, Obama’s inattention and crappy foreign policy gave Putin what the Russians have wanted ever since - a toehold in the ME and warm water ports for its navy.
“Russians have wanted ever since - a toehold in the ME and warm water ports for its navy.”
Russia has been trying to get a foothold in the ME for 400 years. France and Britain have been playing containment.
I agree, but because of another theory.
I feel the main reason we went into the middle east was to put in an appearance of protecting Israel and some of the “allies” we have there. The prior use of weapons and their use of them during the Gulf War was a political act more than an act of aggression toward another country for anything they had which is almost nothing. And since we didn’t have a horse in those races over there, we just played the game. And everyone in the US political scheme was in it up to their armpits. And if we really wanted to take out Iran, Iraq, or anyone else in the area we easily have the firepower to do it and there isn’t a damn thing anyone can do about it without taking out themselves. And they know that. Even the Russians understand what can happen and they don’t want to die either.
To us it was just a game and still is with us using real people instead of Monopoly pieces. It’s all a stalemate with the big folks and losing a few smaller pieces on the board are collateral. It has never been established why we did it, although a lot of excuses were made. Just none that a thinking person can buy. Our politicians are not that interested in saving the world. Look what they do here in the states, or don’t do. Their thoughts are whoever has the most toys when the lights get turned out, wins. But not really. It just gets dark.
rwood
Nowadays, though, the ME isn’t worth what it was before to them.
It’s down to a 1/4 of the world’s oil production.
China can make much more profitable use of it’s own naval base there, so how would Russia pay for one?
Russia would have to fight China to get a profit out of the ME, and China’s ten times as rich. Not good odds.
It used to be great when Ike took over control there: everyone paid us for protecting oil delivery- the buyers and the sellers (by Treasury purchases and trade deals).
It’s a losing proposition now.
Putin's only has two ways to get out -- one is to turn tail, which be self-humiliating; the other is to restore Russian primacy as an ally of Assad. That's only possible if the Iranians are booted out. After *that*, he can work on getting the Turks out. Getting the Turks out first would strengthen the Iranian position.
Nice find!.
4D chess.
makes sense, thanks.
China has lots of mouth’s to feed. But they still focus on stealimg military technology.
Agreed on pretty much all of that... :-)
If the Iranians are not there, or their presence is weak, with Isis greatly weakened already, two of the major arguments for US presence are demolished. That pretty much leaves the Kurds’ vulnerability to Turkey... which can be addressed.
Note that this applies to Syria, not the entire region.
Well money talks to the sides there....they can and do switch accordingly and often. However the leaderships agendas remain pretty much the same.
Putin wants Assad to stay in power until the next election in 2021 Erdogan has to agree since Putin has control of the air and ground in north Syria and he does not want to disturb his relationship with Putin. However Turkey would prefer Assad not stay in power...and Iran wants to control the transfer of power if or not Assad is there.
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