Posted on 11/04/2018 6:35:41 PM PST by blam
;-)
Just think $400 a barrel for oil and the only ones selling will be the USA. That’ll teach um. You freaking Morons.
Guess you dont need a high IQ to join death cults.
Well, to be fair: 1) Saddam did at the time have his “million man army”; and 2) More importantly, the Saudis have for several years now had one of the most impressive military budgets in the world. In 2017 they were #3, behind only the US and China. In terms of GDP, no one else in the top 15 is even close to SA, which spends 10% of it’s GDP on defense. Some of that defense spending by SA is a bit sketchy, but, still...
OTOH, the Saudis have been rather ineffectual in Yemen. So, I tend to think SA could probably inflict severe damage to Iran’s economy, and could repel an actual invasion, but I do not think that SA and its local allies can force an Iranian surrender, unless the Iranian people dump the Mullahs.
The big question is whether a desperate Iran would hit Saudi cities with WMD (at this point, chem, bio, or radiation “dirty” weapons.) I don’t think Saudi can fully defend against a determined all out Iranian WMD attack. I would guess that at the first sign of such, the Saudis would ask us and the Israelis to hit Iran with everything conventional we can. If the Saudis sustain significant civilian WMD casualties (ie., in the thousands), or if the Iranians are stupid enough to hit Israel with WMD’s of any kind or effect, we and the Israelis probably go nuclear, and Iran is literally rubbed out as a regional power.
LOL!
Even at $100 a barrel (sustained), assuming Trump is in charge and projects are not delayed for bogus “green” reasons, I’d say within a year the US would likely be self-sufficient, and certainly we’d be fine if Canadian and Mexican production chips in.
I work for one of the largest US oil companies and this is why we are investing heavily in the Permian Basin and Australia. There is also great potential in Canada when oil hits $100 per barrel.
After Iran is nuked it may take a while for production to ramp up, but eventually it will (as is always the case) and everything will be back to normal, minus another despot.
19 of the 20 hijackers on 9/11 were Saudis. The Saudis fund terrorism just as much as the Iranians do. I don’t know why the hell we need to be fighting for those Islamist goat humpers. They are nothing without their oil and for Gods sake why do we need their oil? Why can’t we drill for our own oil here in the US?
It actually “could” be done with present technology. Just gradually divert a 300,000 ton nickel-iron asteroid and wait a year or two...
Wow talk about setting up a world-wide coalition to change the Iranian government.
You are right - I left out Australia!
Look, I really do not mean to be rude, but, the world, and the evil in it, is way, way more complex than what you demonstrate as your comprehension of it. I’d suggest you find about 200 hours worth of reading material - try to make most of it objective as possible, but also get some at least some information from across the spectrum. Throw in the CIA factbook information on several of these countries, too.
Specific to the Saudis, #1, as a government they have generally been more helpful to the US than unhelpful.
2) The Saudi government certainly did not as a government plan, expedite, etc., 911, and in fact Osama Bin Laden was an outcast / exile of the gov’t and for that matter, a good part of his family. (Do YOU have any lib relatives? Is that a reflection on you?) Now, OSB had some support inside SA. But most of the gov’t very likely would have given him and AQ the Khashoggi treatment, given a good opportunity.
This in NO way means I think the Saudi gov’t are generally nice people. They are just not as bad as some of the alternatives, and, again, they have at times worked with us. Other cases boil down to “The enemy of my enemy...”
3) We actually do not “need” Saudi oil — some just happens to come in due to advantageous pricing and some has characteristic useful to some of our refiners. However, Saudi output keeps the global prices down, and, oil IS a global commodity. Now, the cleric in the article topping this thread is correct in one sense: If the majority of ME oil and gas exports were interrupted, the global economy would be greatly damaged. Like it or not, we ARE part of that economy, and a really big worldwide economic crash — much worse than 2009 — would affect us badly too.
Put another way, if ME gas and oil was suddenly unavailable, the US and other suppliers would have to entirely substitute for that shortfall to the rest of the world, as well as supply themselves, to keep prices stable.
Worse, and I’m just going to pick “10%” out of the air: Let’s say the situation evolves such that worldwide, there is a 10% shortage of oil & gas, starting in November. Even if North American supplies fully “fuel” us at prices somehow controlled here, how many people die, in the rest of the world? Thousands? Tens of thousands?
4) Back to SA specifically, it is NOT a monolith, though it superficially might appear so from a shallow outside look. There is a lot of internal jockeying for power, among other things.
The above is terribly over-simplified, and some FReeper may take me to task for that— but I do not have all night to put together a longer and more comprehensive response. Perhaps someone else does. :-)
200 hours minimum. Happy reading & research... ;-)
[OTOH, the Saudis have been rather ineffectual in Yemen.]
Ngo Dinh Diem was pretty brutal in repressing the opposition. Kennedy thought he was too brutal and had him killed. Before Diem was killed, it was thought that South Vietnam would defeat the Vietcong with a few American advisers. After Diem died, there was no way South Vietnam could have held the line without direct US intervention. Unless it returned to Diem’s methods (which have a long history all the back to the pre-French era, when it was a Chinese vassal state). Which it never did.
Indonesia dealt with its Communist problem by killing 600K suspected communists in a matter of months. It was a bloodbath, but it was the end of the communist threat in the country. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indonesian_mass_killings_of_1965%E2%80%9366 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Year_of_Living_Dangerously_(film)
They will soon be free.
First they have to see if their computers are still working after the latest stutnext.These clowns are almost hilarious.I pray we get turned loose on them. Shouldn’t take even a week.
ANd your opinion of the Saudis is based on what?
Between MBS,Israel and the US the mid east is going to be rid of terrorists in the next few years,do you have a problem with that?
“The Saudis would level Iran in about a few months.”
The Saudi military looks great on paper. But there are some systemic and, I think, fatal flaws. The leadership is drawn from the royal family and most, if not all, are there for political rather than military reasons. The Saudi government pays their people not to revolt. When the foreign exchange runs out, the people will revolt. Similarly, when the Saudis had trouble getting air force pilots to fly difficult missions in Yemen, they bought them Rolls Royce’s. The Saudi military has performed horribly in Yemen. If a position needs to be assaulted, the request is bumped upstairs and by the time a decision comes back down, the situation on the ground has changed and the decision is overcome by events. The opposite is true of the Iranian military, which now has much experience. Iranian decisions are made at the lowest and most efficient point by dedicated, empowered and motivated ground forces. Even with a ten to one advantage in manpower and technology, I don’t expect the Saudis to perform well. And, performing badly is a recipe for regime change.
Thanks blam. What is his FR nick?
Maybe we should sit back and watch the Chinese Navy attempt to sort this out. That would be a laugh.
Well! Looks like somebody got out of the wrong side of the bed.
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