Posted on 05/31/2018 12:28:01 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Last December, Democrat Doug Jones won a Senate race in Alabama by defeating a horribly flawed Republican candidate Roy Moore. For the first time, it appeared that the Democrats had a plausible path to winning control of the U.S. Senate in 2018. The Republican advantage was trimmed to a 51-49 margin and a net change of two seats would make New York Senator Chuck Schumer the new Senate Majority leader.
To win the Senate, all the Democrats had to do was win GOP seats in Arizona and Nevada and successfully defend all of their incumbents. At the time, the Democrats had a double-digit lead on the Generic Congressional Ballot and being opposed to President Trump seemed to be all that was needed. It looked like the Democrats were poised to ride a blue wave back to power.
My, how times have changed!
Shortly after Doug Jones won that special election in Alabama, the Republicans in Congress cut taxes and eliminated the Obamacare mandate. Having demonstrated that they could do something that their voters wanted, the GOP prospects began to improve. Now, with the elections just six months away, it seems that Republican are more likely to gain seats in the Senate rather than lose control.
Sure, it's still possible that the Dems could pick up seats in Arizona and Nevada. But, such an outcome is far from a sure thing as both races are now toss-ups.
And, even if Schumer's party wins both of those races, the chances of successfully defending all of the vulnerable Democratic incumbents is increasingly in doubt. The Dems are playing defense hoping to hang on to five Senate seats in states that President Trump won by double digits -- West Virginia, Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, and Montana. On top of that, Florida Governor Rick Scott has entered the fray to challenge Democratic Senator Bill Nelson in a toss-up state. Early indications are that Scott has all the energy and momentum in the race.
The numbers clearly favor the GOP. If, for example, the Democrats pick up BOTH toss-up races in Arizona and Nevada, the Republicans need to win just one of the other six competitive races to keep the Senate at a 50-50 tie. With Vice President Mike Pence empowered to cast the deciding vote, the GOP would remain in control.
At this moment in time, however, it seems like the Republicans should expect to do much better than a mere 50-50 tie in the Senate. There is certainly a chance they could win at least one of the toss-up Senate races in either Arizona or Nevada (especially if Martha McSally wins the Republican nomination in Arizona).
Beyond that, Democrats Claire McCaskill and Joe Donnelly face uphill battles in Missouri and Indiana. It's very easy to imagine the R's picking up at least one of those seats. Democrat Heidi Heitkamp is probably a slight underdog in her North Dakota re-election bid. In West Virginia, Joe Manchin's personal popularity may be enough to overcome the fact that President Trump carried the state by 42 points -- but it will probably be very close. And, as always, Florida remains a pure toss-up.
Add it all up, and the Democrats need to pull an inside straight to avoid losing seats in the Senate this November.
Election Night is going to be as fun as it was in 2016.
“Tester in Montana is dragging his boat anchor and unpopular, another R gain”
Hopefully, if this is true, this will be when he fires Sessions and gets a tough a hole in there to deal with the crimes of the O administration.
The Republicans are active in being the counterpoint to Dems:
“What? A $1 Trillion increase in Federal spending? We *only* want to increase it by $500 Billion!”
By design.
Look at how mad they got at Trump for not being a punching bag.
If the GOP doesn’t f*** this up (I know, I know) they could easily get to 58, and if there’s peace in Korea, the economy is still booming, AND if DJT makes a bold move on the border, 60 is not out of the question.
But what they have to do is BACK TRUMP’S PLAY ALL THE WAY, and I don’t think they have it in them.
Republicans who do not deserve it will see no loses (sorry Democdats but even Heller is ahead and gaining) and will pick up senate seats in Ohio Indiana North Dakota West Virginia Florida Pennsylvania Florida Montana Missouri for sure and probably New Jersey and Mjchigan - because Blacks who gave Truml the state wi do it again.
No.
Every GOP Senate candidate has to back Trump to the hilt.
[In West Virginia, Joe Manchin’s personal popularity may be enough to overcome the fact that President Trump carried the state by 42 points — but it will probably be very close.]
That is true. But then the Rats do not bother to even put on a centrist mask before or after the election.
“Election Night is going to be as fun as it was in 2016.”
If the Repubs keep the house with at least a 30 seat majority -AND- +8 or better in the Senate, yeah, it’ll be that much fun :-).
Keeping the House and a couple of pickups in the Senate would be good of course, but the Dems could spin the story to suggest that Trump’s running out of steam, numbers weren’t that good, etc (forget anything you know about “blue Wave” ... they’ll not even mention it and pretend it was never mentioned).
Crushing numbers giving the Repubs 60 seats in the Senate and a large margin in the House would kill them ... they’d be so frigging depressed that many probably would leave the country this time around :-).
A 50/50 split would be perfect, maybe actually better for Trump as he’d be free then to deal equally with either party and put the RINOs and Never Trumpers in their place. With a 50/50, they could be done with McConnell and find someone agreeable to everyone, someone endorsed by Trump.
...and, yes, figure Heller defeated in Nevada. While I am very unlikely to vote for the Democrat, I am absolutely sure I will NEVER vote for Heller. I seriously doubt this Never Trumper amnesty lover has any chance of winning.
You would need at least eighty Republicans in the senator to counter the Demonrat and rino coalition.
You know John McCain was famous for screwing up an opportunity, he hates Trump so much he would let the Republicans loose the majority to get Trump. Since he will probably be gone they (repubs) just might.
If the Republicans realize how popular Trump is with the American people they would jump on the bandwagon!
Yes, we need a repeat of 2016, a second round of defeating the Democrats.
Poll out in WV (Gravis/Brietbart) has Crapchin up by 13 points.
They also polled a 3-way race with sore loser Don Blankenship, he is challenging the sore loser law in court, he would draw 5%, he takes 2 poinst from Manchin and 1 from the Republican, so his evil plan to help Manchin might actually not, if he succeeds in getting on the ballot, which he shouldn’t.
That poll doesn’t pass the smell test. Morrisey was either tied or ahead in other polls. Manchin can’t break out of the 40s and another poll indicated in excess of 50% of voters want to replace him.
This will hold...
Ohio poll has Brown up 14. “Fallon Research”.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.