Posted on 03/02/2018 1:33:51 AM PST by lowbuck
WASHINGTON - The liberal national news media have been predicting for months that Republicans will likely lose their Senate majority in this year’s midterm elections, and suffer losses in the House, too.
But it’s a bit premature to place your bets on the 2018 congressional sweepstakes, for several reasons: forecasts that the economy will take off later this year as a result of the GOP’s massive tax cuts, increasing incomes and jobs, not to mention that the Democrats are having problems of their own.
The Democrats voted overwhelmingly against the tax cut plan in December, predicting it will add over $1 trillion to the federal budget deficit, and benefit only the rich, and that the issue would be a major weapon against the GOP in the fall.
But that’s not what’s been happening since President Trump signed the tax cuts into law. Millions of workers are getting raises and bonuses. Capital is flowing back to the U.S. from overseas companies that are investing in new plants here at home. There are reports of new factories being opened, or expanded, in the Midwest and elsewhere in the country.
A front page headline in the liberal Washington Post on Tuesday told the story in seven words: “Democrats’ attack shifts as U.S. paychecks grow.”
In a story datelined Kokomo, Indiana, under a subhead that said “Painting GOP tax cuts as a bad deal long-term may prove a tough sell,” reporter Erica Werner found that the “Democrats’ early optimism appears less well founded here, where Democrat Joe Donnelly is facing a tough Senate reelection fight.”
CARTOONS | ROBERT ARIAIL VIEW CARTOON “The new [tax cut] law is rising in popularity as businesses in Indiana and elsewhere trumpet bonuses and bigger paychecks. And while Donnelly and fellow Democrats struggle to craft a consistent attack on the law, Republicans… are united in touting the tax cuts and slamming moderate Democrats who voted against them,” Werner reported.
The three Republicans vying to replace Donnelly in November pounded him relentlessly in a recent debate last week.
“He said he would work for a tax plan that would help middle-class families,” said GOP Rep. Luke Messer. “We delivered a tax plan that helped middle-class families, and he was nowhere to be found.”
And as voters have begun to see more income in their paychecks, political polls are finding growing support for the tax cuts.
Democrats are defending 10 Senate seats in key states that Trump carried in the 2016 election, including four that he won by double-digits: Indiana, North Dakota, Missouri and West Virginia.
Right now, Republicans cling to power in the Senate by a slender 51-to-49 seat majority.
But Republican strategists believe the tax cuts will be the winning issue that will fatten their margin in the upper chamber.
The Democrats who fought against the tax cuts “chose partisan politics, and the price they pay is going to be extremely high,” said Tim Phillips, president of Americans for Prosperity, who has been running ads against Donnelly and Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill of Missouri.
No one is better at reading mid-term elections than the Cook Political Report edited and published by veteran forecaster Charlie Cook and a team of skilled analysts.
Here’s his bottom line on the outcome of the House and Senate races in the fall:
“Democrats need to flip 24 seats to take back the house. There are 19 Republican seats rated Toss Up or worse. That means that Democrats would need to win all 19 of those seats and pick off five other seats in the Lean Republican column.”
But “Realistically, Democrats will not win 100% of the seats in Toss Up or worse,” he says in his latest report.
As for the Senate, Democrats need only two seats to take control of that chamber, and there are three GOP seats in the Toss Up column: Arizona, Nevada and Tennessee.
“While it’s possible for Democrats to win the two seats they need, it will also be an uphill battle. Democrats are defending 26 seats compared to Republicans who are only defending eight. Democrats must also defend 10 seats in states that Trump won,” Cook points out.
And 5 of those seats are in states Trump won by 19 points or more. Finally, you won’t hear this on the nightly network news, but liberal Democrats are having their own troubles, from leftist extremists.
Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein of California was denied her party’s endorsement at last weekend's convention after she failed to win the required 60 percent threshold to be its nominee. She now faces her far-left primary challenger, state Senate leader Kevin de Leon, who is running on universal Medicare and free college tuition.
I don’t know about you, but I’m betting that Republicans are going to do better than expected on Nov. 6.
Impacting this is my opinion that the stock market is long overdue for a major correction. The announcement of the tariffs on steel and aluminum (long overdue) this week may be the catalyst to bringing it on.
However, the tax reform act, reduction in regulations and permitting processes will act to give a quick rebound as I think most businesses (small and large) realize that the playing field has been leveled.
If the market tanks expect the MSM to be writing the death notice for the Republican's/Mr. Trump in November. However, we have plenty of time for the excess to be wrung out and the economy to move along. Corrections can complete in just a few short, painful months, if the basic economy is primed for growth.
IMHO, Joe and Jackie Six-Pack don't have a lot invested in the market. So, all the doom and gloom (if a correction begins in earnest) will not affect their lives just like the narrative of Russia 24/7.
Always, my 2¢
I don’t know about you, but I’m betting that Republicans are going to do better than expected on Nov. 6.>>>>>>>>>>
I would have agreed with you until this week.
The Presidents televised meetings, in which he speaks about supporting gun control legislation that would not keep anyone safer, has awakened the slumbering giant of 2nd amendment voters. And our president may be in trouble, simply because he is effectively diminishing the Republican turnout. 2nd amendment supporters may not vote against Republicans, but when the party has an image of non 2nd amendment support, Republicans stay home.
I believe the president has made a terrible mistake.He will take a lot more heat that he originally contemplated.
On the House front, I could see maybe five or six Florida seats flipping to the Democrats because of the Cruz episode and hysteric behavior in Florida. But nation-wide, on the Senate seats...I think a minimum of six Democratic seats will flip to the GOP. The GOP will still be in absolute control.
One of the key factors here is that the Democratic National Committee is basically broke. They spent a lot on the Ala Senate race and ate up a fair amount of their money. So far, you haven’t seen Hillary, or Obama come out to help restock the national party reserves. So it’s a bad time to any positive trend for the Democrats.
Up in Pennsylvania the battle over the election districts continues. Hopefully, the SCOTUS will rule that the move by the PA SC violates the state constitution and they revert to the properly passed plan by the legislature.
Gotta watch the RATS as they will try to steal the elections any way they can.
No wall, no way 2018! They lied about Obamacare and they are lying about the wall, about border security. American Citizen kids last policies.. are we seriously saying yes to that?
I am withholding judgement. I remember the initial DACA talks where it was reported that Schumer/Pelosi got everything they wanted and more only to have their plan shoved up a place the sun does not shine.
I think we are looking at lightening getting ready to strike the Dumbocrats a second time.
I have decided that Mr. Trump is our “Roadrunner” to their (Democrats as a group) coyote. They keep rolling out their “Acme Miracle Trap” only to get blown up or fall off the cliff again.
The odd factor, which will occur after this election...will be the method on how the Census is conducted. If Trump lays out the new rules and refuses to count non-Americans...it’ll turn into a massive mess, and could be the number one topic of the 2020 election.
If the President were to surprise us with support for gun control, we would need more than ever to keep the Republican majority in Congress. Those Republicans would be our only way of stopping gun control then.
Maybe yes, in regards to the “Roadrunner.” I don’t doubt that possibility. But I’m not going to trust anyone who leaves us less than 100% sure that he’s with us on the Second Amendment (meaning not trusting anyone at all).
That’s why I’ve been pushing for everyone to write to their members of Congress and vote in this year’s elections. It can’t hurt to make sure. It might also be good to rattle our chains once in a while to make sure that politicians still know where we stand.
We need every ounce of insurance we can get to preserve our Second Amendment rights. It’s also smart strategy to discourage as much as possible, those who want to indulge in gun control efforts. It would really be better for all of us, if far fewer of them even bothered to try. In other words, beat them more thoroughly, politically speaking. Skunk them. Make them feel as weak as sick cats.
I really hope President Trump has no desire at all for any kind of gun control. Looks that way today. We’ll see.
Trump, Pence ‘don’t want gun control,’ NRA’s chief lobbyist says after meeting
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/03/02/trump-pence-dont-want-gun-control-nras-chief-lobbyist-says-after-meeting.html
“IMHO, Joe and Jackie Six-Pack don’t have a lot invested in the market.” Not true. Look at the prospectus for your IRAs, 401(k)s and other retirement accounts; we’re all invested in the stock market. They sure as hell aren’t growing at 0.5 percent interest in bank savings accounts.
Furthermore, if Congress passes more gun control, especially beyond the ban of bump stocks and an increase in the minimum age to purchase a gun - the latter of which I do not agree with, and Trump signs it, they’re toast. Trump’s supporters will stay home.
You’re absolutely right.
The market matters. It’s not the whole picture, but it is a snapshot seen everyday and it effects the 401K’s. I frankly think Soros is messing with it but Trump has got to stop that bleeding.
If he turns on the NRA, he’s done. If he goes squishy on illegal Mexican Dreamers and supports ANY kind of amnesty, he’s done. I said IF. We’ll see but the clock is ticking. As you said, his base just won’t vote.
It's all about the potential for rising interest rates at this point.
I think it’s going to be a bloodbath with the democrats taking contro of both th house and senate......they are extremely motivated
I hope I’m wrong
My Questions And Concerns are: Why don’t GOP candidates, also, run against all of the RINOS as well as run against all of the Anti-Trump GOP’ers, too, as many as possible? The RINOS/”Anti-Trumpers in the GOP” are much more damaging, politically, on the majority of issues, than the “political minority Democrats”, and they are doing all that they can do to, at the very least, attempt to slow down President Trumps’ agenda. GOP candidates need to, legally, put on paper if they are pro-conservative AND pro-Trump, and GOP candidates are, also, way overdue for creating another “Contract With America 2.0”, with the general public determining, by popular demand, what such issues and how many issues will be included in it! A successful Contract With America 2.0 would excite the conservative voters base, even more, and it would create serious political incentives for all non-leftist voters to make sure that they DO VOTE, on November 2018 as well as beyond.
You can’t beat somebody with nobody. In many instances, the political districts are not even competitive, other than in the primaries, and even that is a little dicey. Every incumbent what WANTS to return, is practically assured of the bet going in.
In the relatively few competitive districts, there is still nothing to presume a “blue wave” in the election, and the few special elections where control has flipped in recent months are just as likely to revert to the original conformation, especially since the Democrats have no coherent message, other than “we aren’t Republicans”, a pretty thin notification of their intent.
Repeal of the tax breaks? Reimposing the onerous mandates of Obamacare? Restoring the regime of excessive regulation and stultifying the free exercise of market forces? Further erosion of the basic rights written in the Constitution and Bill of Rights?
Tough sell no matter how you coach the terms.
“My Questions And Concerns are: Why don’t GOP candidates, also, run against all of the RINOS as well as run against all of the Anti-Trump GOP’ers, too, as many as possible?”
If you put 100 Republicans in a room and flashed up on the wall photos of GOP candidates and asked, RINO or Not-RINO there would be disagreement across the board. Probably not one candidate would receive the blessings of all in the room. So, firstly, there is an information and perception problem. Secondly, politics is complicated by dozens of factors. There may be a candidate who is acceptably conservative to most, but who is too weak to run, or who has a problem articulating well, or who simply isn’t “photogenic” enough for a mass audience. Then, there’s money. It takes about ten million dollars to mount a successful senatorial campaign and three to four million for a House seat.
To win you have to have a successful confluence of events including, money, a bad opponent, timing, marketability and a host of other plusses. And, in a close race, there will always be the October Surprise that sways just enough votes at the last moment to knock out a weak candidate.
I am not saying nobody should try to primary RINO’s but sometimes doing so and failing will knock out a candidate that many others in our room of 100 would find acceptable. Some might say, “well, if he’s not 100% pure, then I’d rather have a Democrat.” You might find the occasional GOP-er who will “cross the aisle” but a Democrat pretty much votes with the pack and that’s what gave us Obamacare. I’d rather take a chance with a weak conservative than a strong communist…er, Democrat.
Intelligent observation. This week Trump said he can do it his way without the support of the 2d amendment voters, who were 50% of his base. ... but not anymore.
And Trump said he can do it alone without the support of those who believe in economics 101 as taught by both Capitalist, Corporatists and Socialists. There is absolutely no facts, logic or experience post-1920s Smoot Hawley to suggest that tariffs are a smart move by a government.
I can’t help but think that there’s a good size portion of the GOP that wants to lose their majority.
There’s no way the Republicans hold on to the House this Fall. Senate is a different matter, hard to lose the senate, but with these poll numbers (albeit 8 months out) the House will flip.
I predicted about two months ago Rs would gain a couple of seats in the House, 5-7 in the Senate, but more important, in the Senate some of those gains-—perhaps 3-4-—are replacements of neverTrumpers with Trumpers (Blackburn, Scott if he runs, McDaniel).
So in the Senate the real impact could be much greater than merely the number of seats.
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