10 Senate Democrats are up for reelection in Trump country

The Hill ^ | 2/16/18 | MARK PLOTKIN

[Republican Wildcat]

Ten Democratic U.S. senators up for reelection in 2018 are in a special category, being from states that Donald Trump won in 2016.

Previously, I catalogued five states where Democratic incumbents are considered most vulnerable: Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota and West Virginia. In the other five, Democratic incumbents are far less vulnerable and, in most instances, should feel confident of reelection.

Let’s start with Ohio, which Dems definitely thought they had a decent chance to win in 2016. That proved to be totally wrong.

Ohio is increasingly a Republican state; Trump carried it by 8 points, a healthy margin of 446,841 votes. Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown, it would be surmised, would therefore be in trouble.

But, as in all these states, Trump is not on the ballot.

Brown is seeking his third term; he was first elected in 2006. Previously he was elected statewide as Ohio’s secretary of state and served six terms in the U.S. House of Representatives. Six years ago he faced an attractive Republican opponent, Josh Mandel; Brown beat him by 6 points. Many thought Mandel would try again and be the GOP’s best hope, but he decided not to run.

Two Republicans are vying for the nomination, Rep. Jim Renacci and investment banker Mike Gibbons, and will face each other in a May primary. Brown benefits because neither candidate seems to pose the challenge that Mandel would have been.

[IamConservative]

The Democrat Platform:

1) Gun Confiscation
2) Unlimited Immigration
3) Repealing Trumps “Unpatriotic” Tax Reform
4) Full-term Abortion

Did I miss anything?

[LS]

No, no one will do that. Just telling you what I’m hearing from insiders (Trumpers) about him.

[LS]

Absolutely wrong. Kelli Ward did better against McTurd in the primary than D Kirkpatrick did against him in the general.

[central_va]

For Pete’s sake primary out any McConnell RNC RINO candidates and go with MAGA candidates! Moderates sucks and lose every time.

[central_va]

Moderates suck s—t.

[central_va]

We need ideologue MAGA candidates! Shut up you fool.

[central_va]

BS. Was Trump a moderate? Hell no.

[MMaschin]

Absolutely wrong. Kelli Ward did better against McTurd in the primary than D Kirkpatrick did against him in the general.

I like Ward in AZ, and I think she can win. But that not withstanding, my point is that you don't win elections by just getting your voters out, you need to suppress the vote on the other side.

In purple states, you don't have a lot of people who are willing to vote for either a Democrat or a Republican, you have a lot of Democrats who are willing to not vote if the Republican is a moderate, and a lot of Republicans who are willing to sit home if the Democrat is a moderate. The problem is that when you run a true conservative in one of these states, none of the Democrats stay home, and that makes it near impossible to win that race.

So, in the case of AZ, while I do think Ward can win, it will be harder for her to win than McSally, because Ward is going to draw a lot more Democrat vote against her. So, it's not really how many Republican votes she gets (I do think she will draw just as much as McSally), it's about how much Democrat support she draws against her, and she WILL draw more. The Democrats will have an easier time firing up their base against her, than they will against McSally.

If a state already has a Democrat Senator, that's a pretty good indication that a conservative Republican is not going to be able to win there. And even if the GOP nominates a moderate, that candidate is not going to win without conservative support.

The GOP should be able to hold onto the House, AND have a shot at a super-majority in the Senate, if only conservatives would support whoever the GOP candidate is, but they won't. They will complain about the candidate being a RINO, and how they will never vote for a RINO, and a RINO is no different than a Demorcat (ignoring the fact that without RINO support, the new tax bill would never have passed), and they will sit the election out. And that is why the Democrats are likely to do VERY well this midterm.

[Trump.Deplorable]

Telling people to shut up on the Internet, that speaks class

I just think it is stupid to go Rino hunting when we don’t have a safe majority in the senate. We are two seats away from total disaster. We should be taking democrat seats, not aiming for each other. And those Rinos, did deliver a conservative candidate on the SC. Democrats didn’t do that. They also delivered the best tax cut in decades, the democrats did’t do that.

[central_va]

You can be a scared little boy. Not me. I go RINO hunting anytime, all the time, baby.

[Trump.Deplorable]

There is a difference between scared and tactful.

Gaining more seats should be the priority

We can pick off Rinos, and in the next cycle

The more seats we have the less power the Rinos will have, all you would need to is pick off a couple and the rest will fall inline.

We need more seats, not give away seats to the libtards. We don’t need a repeat of Alabama, that was a disaster.

[LS]

No. In AZ Rs have a registration advantage-—and it has increased by net 14,000 since Nov. 2016.

Just turn out the Rs & Ward can win.

[fieldmarshaldj]

It was on Bentley to responsibly appoint someone to the seat, he failed to do so. He enabled the entire situation. There were countless Republicans available. He chose the one who helped sweep his ethics problems under the rug. There would’ve been no special election in 2017 had Strange not been the appointee. Yes, it ultimately falls to Bentley for putting this mess into motion.

[Impy]

Damn that murdering bastard, Neville Chamberlin! Should have hung his decomposed corpse at Nuremberg and pardoned those poor Nazis, I mean they were just taking advantage of weak European governments, can’t blame them.

Yeah, no. the NOMINEE has a responsibility to not TANK the race by saying IDIOTIC GARBAGE.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Dude, Godwin’s Law. Live it, learn it, love it. :-P

[central_va]

It’s always the NEXT cycle with you people.

[Impy]

Ok, you're right, that was lazy of me, here's a flipping analogy for you.

If a dude is killed by a drunk driver while driving into work on his day off cause his boss asked him to come in cause his co-worker's 15 year old daughter is giving birth, it's the co-worker's daughter's fault for not closing her legs. Indict the little slut for vehicular manslaughter and shower the drunk driver with praise cause he has a bumper sticker you agree with.

We can't go around absolving horrible candidates for THEIR failures to win just cause we agree with them ideologically. Personal resposibilty is supposed to be a conservative value, but if you like the person it's never their fault? Psssh.

[fieldmarshaldj]

You’re criticizing the candidate. I’m criticizing the cause.

[LS]

Correct. The good news is that so far I don’t see ANY “horrible” candidates out there. I don’t like McSally, but she CAN beat Sinema, as can Kelli Ward. I despise Minion, but he will win. Probably the weakest is John James in MI, who lacks name recognition.

[Trump.Deplorable]

If we have a super majority, I would say, go for it. but with a thin 51/49, it is stupid to risk it, unless the incumbent is in serious trouble.

Strategy is better then all guns ablazin, just saying

Also depends on what is more important, getting rid of Rinos to prove a political point (and possible lose the house and senate) or getting conservative justices appointed. I take the later

I hate my congress critter too, but I will vote for him in November, cause he is still better then the RAT alternative