Posted on 12/02/2017 1:37:52 AM PST by Kaslin
FINAL UPDATE - The votes are in, and the ayes have it. After a marathon evening of debating and considering amendments, the US Senate has approved the GOP's tax reform bill, which would simplify the tax code and cut taxes for the vast majority of American households, small businesses and corporations. Every Republican voted yes, except for Tennessee's Bob Corker. Democrats uniformly voted no. This is a big legislative victory for the GOP, which overcame a great deal of ferocious opposition -- much of it rooted in misinformation -- to pass the legislation. Up next, a conference committee with the House. But here's your summary for tonight:
FINAL: With Vice President Pence presiding, the US Senate approves a major tax cut & simplification package, 51-49. The bill will now head to a conference committee, where it will be merged with the House-passed bill.— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) December 2, 2017
UPDATE III - It's now looking official: Senate Republicans have the votes to pass tax reform. Arizona's Jeff Flake announced he's jumping on the bandwagon, and the finalized legislation includes a (paid for) amendment sought by Maine's Susan Collins that mirrors the House-passed SALT (state and local tax deduction) compromise. That strongly suggests that she'll be a "yes," too. Add it up, and that's 51, negating the need for Vice President Pence to break a potential tie. Depending on Bob Corker's mood in a few hours, McConnell might even get all 52 GOP votes. But all he really needs is 50-plus-one, and he says he's got 'em:
BREAKING: McConnell walks onto the floor and tells reporters: “We have the votes.”— Frank Thorp V (@frankthorp) December 1, 2017
ORIGINAL POST - The Republican-held House of Representatives did its part by passing a tax overhaul earlier this month, with zero Democrats supporting the effort. That bill cut taxes and boosted after-tax incomes, on average, across every income group in the country, and is projected by nonpartisan analysts to grow the US economy and create close to one million new full-time jobs. It would also lower the tax burden on job-creating small businesses (key small business advocacy groups have endorsed the Republican push), and make America's extremely high statutory and effective corporate tax rates far more competitive internationally. But we've seen this movie before. With the "resistance" in full demagogic throat, and Democrats bound in lockstep opposition, will the GOP's narrow Senate majority fumble the ball, as they did on Obamacare? We'll know soon enough, and tea leaves are mixed. A vote is expected later today. As we brace what's next, let's first note three developments from yesterday (see update) that may portend a successful outcome (see update II) for Mitch McConnell's conference:
(1) John McCain is a committed "yes." As the Senator who more or less single-handedly killed his party's "repeal and replace" efforts in July, having him clearly on board is a huge boon to Republican leadership. McCain's official statement touted the expected benefits of the bill -- acknowledging concerns about it, but ultimately determining that the legislation's upside was strong enough to secure his support:
After careful consideration, I have decided to support the Senate #TaxReform bill. Though not perfect, this bill will deliver much-needed reform to our tax code, grow the economy & provide long overdue tax relief for American families. https://t.co/BeWZAT0SjM pic.twitter.com/6qwYhmyE5p— John McCain (@SenJohnMcCain) November 30, 2017
He even specifically addressed and endorsed the proposal's provision that would repeal Obamacare's tent pole, the federal individual mandate tax: "I have also argued that health care reform, which is important both to the well-being of our citizens and to the vitality of our economy, should proceed by regular order. This bill does not change that. As a matter of principle, I’ve always supported individual liberty and believe the federal government should not penalize Americans who cannot afford to purchase expensive health insurance. By repealing the individual mandate, this bill would eliminate an onerous tax that especially harms those from low-income brackets. In my home state of Arizona, 80 percent of people who currently pay the individual mandate penalty earn less than $50,000 per year," he wrote.
(2) The nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation released its "dynamic scoring" analysis that the Senate bill would add less than $1 trillion to deficits over a decade, as opposed to the on-paper $1.4 trillion figure reached under "static scoring." The reason for this is that JCT anticipates the tax relief package would add nearly one percentage point to GDP growth over the next ten years, resulting in new revenues. Many supporters will argue that JCT underestimates the economic benefits of tax reform, but their report still offers two positive data points:
Jt Tax Cmte forecasts tax bill will increase GDP "by about 0.8 percent on average over the 10- year budget window. That increase in income would increase revenues, relative to the conventional estimate of a loss of $1,414 billion..by $458 billion over that period."— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) November 30, 2017
(3) For what it's worth:
Just spoke w/ Senate leadership source who I'd characterize as hopeful but never quite confident on the "repeal & replace" whip count over the summer. Sounds *much* more confident on tax reform today, despite some issues still being ironed out. #fwiw— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) November 30, 2017
That was the state of play late yesterday afternoon, with my well-placed source telling me McConnell and company were in a "really good place" in terms of corralling the requisite 50-plus-one votes. The source stopped short of guaranteeing passage at the time, but described potential holdouts as playing an active and "constructive" role in shaping the bill throughout the process, carried out through regular order. Susan Collins is said to be in a decent spot, and McConnell's "substitute amendment" (effectively the bill that was formally debated on the floor) was co-sponsored by...Lisa Murkowski. The three squeakiest wheels, I was told, were outgoing Tennessee Senators Bob Corker and Jeff Flake (who want a deficit-related "backstop" to reduce the tax cuts if economic growth falls short of targets), and Wisconsin's Ron Johnson. Johnson been characterized as a "hard no" in the media, but he's a pro-business, low-tax conservative at heart. I'm not so sure he's still in the 'nay' column, considering his evolving posture (this was from Wednesday evening-- and see update below):
We still have work to do, but I have been working with the administration and Senate leadership to make progress toward a better bill. - rj #taxreform— Senator Ron Johnson (@SenRonJohnson) November 29, 2017
The bigger challenges appear to stem from the other two Senators, who emerged at the center of some floor drama last evening, which bubbled to the surface in full view of reporters. (My source quoted above still sounds optimistic, but last evening was a setback). Relevant parties spent the overnight hours seeking to hammer out an accommodation to address Corker and Flake's deficit concerns after the Senate parliamentarian ruled that a proposed "trigger" mechanism compromise did not pass procedural muster under reconciliation rules. Might that eleventh-hour wrinkle cause the upper chamber GOP to once again face-plant? Stay tuned for the yeas and nays, which may again blow up in embarrassing fashion -- or could result in a big policy and political win for Republicans. In the meantime, the Left is shouting as loudly as possible to kill the bill. Some of their biggest claims are false. Equip yourself with the facts, and help educate others. The empirically-supportable truth is that the vast majority of taxpayers stand to benefit from tax reform. Nevertheless, every single Senate Democrat marched along to Chuck Schumer's beat and voted against even debating the proposal, some of whom defended their decision with nonsensical explanations like this:
I voted against the motion to proceed on the Republican #taxreform plan because I haven’t seen a final bill. I’m still trying to work w/ my R colleagues & @realdonaldtrump to find a bipartisan way forward.— Senator Joe Manchin (@Sen_JoeManchin) November 29, 2017
He couldn't vote to advance a debate over how the final bill would look because he...hadn't seen the final bill, or something. Got it. I'll leave you with a parting thought for Mssrs. Corker and Flake:
Think very carefully, Sens Flake & Corker.
If you jointly jeopardize tax reform, it would (a) risk defeating your own long-held policy goal, (b) reek of anti-Trump pettiness, & (c) reinforce idea that GOP should prioritize personal loyalty to Trump in primaries. Lose-lose-lose.— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) December 1, 2017
UPDATE - As I predicted above, Johnson is now a 'yes,' and despite last night's worrisome snag, my sources are telling me that things are again looking good. They stopped short of an airtight guarantee, but both said they expect a successful vote at some point today:
?? Sen. Ron Johnson tells Milwaukee radio WISN 1130 minutes ago he is a "yes" vote https://t.co/b0eJAzNIJL— J.D. Durkin (@jiveDurkey) December 1, 2017
"The question seems to be, how many Republican votes are they going to get? Is it going to be 50, 51, or 52? But, at this point...it would be really shocking if they didn't get to 50 which is what they need." - @guypbenson— America's Newsroom (@AmericaNewsroom) December 1, 2017
This is what I've heard within the last hour, having spoken w/ several plugged-in sources. Sounding like 49 locked-in 'yes' votes, w strong likelihood that at least 1 more comes into the fold. Leadership optimistic about a vote later today. https://t.co/59dtanMrcl— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) December 1, 2017
UPDATE II - It looks like this is happening (or maybe not?):
BREAKING: Second-ranking Senate Republican, John Cornyn of Texas, says GOP has the votes to pass sweeping tax overhaul.— The Associated Press (@AP) December 1, 2017
New: Sen. Bob Corker tells @siobhanehughes the bill will probably pass:
https://t.co/wspkmPMJ0H via @WSJ— Richard Rubin (@RichardRubinDC) December 1, 2017
Big potential problem for GOP leaders: Susan Collins disputes Cornyn’s claim that they have her support for the GOP tax bill. (They see her as their 50th and pivotal vote)
“I can’t imagine why Senator Cornyn is speaking for me,” she told me. “I speak for myself”— Laura Litvan (@LauraLitvan) December 1, 2017
I am sure they will - and we have given them fuel to run on that.
I am hopeful that the economy does do well. It probably will. But millions of us will still be paying higher taxes.
Even this guy didn't raise my Federal taxes like this.
That is really good news. Do you happen to have any details, or a link?
Thanks!
I am so disgusted right now. I voted for fiscal responsibility. Not continuing deficit spending. I want the budget balanced, and the debt reduced. Not for another trillion dollars added to the debt.
I actually worked the phone lines for Trump this election. Never again. A pox on both parties. When the entire world wide economy collapses due to all this deficit spending, I will laugh. Then grab my gun and help start over again.
Very true. Thanks.
A very disturbing trend on FR these days is that the personal attacks are increasing with great frequency.
Some of the folks doing it even say they are Christians.
On this issue, if you disagree with having your taxes raised and being lied to, you might be called a Communist, a DU double agent, a liar, or worse. Some Freepers will simply choose to childishly mock you.
Ask me how I know?
This tax bill will be one of the largest single tax raises in history for some states and some individuals.
I don't really know how we got to the point where that position became "conservative" and to oppose higher Federal taxation became heresy.
A wsj article I read this morning in the weekend edition, business section; taking about which kinds of companies will lose &/or gain (some both ways) from which new provisions.
From me one of the big pluses is also a move to the territorial tax basis; not taxed (generally) on income not earned in the domestic U.S. economy, and that basis, territorial, not global, is how all of our major trading competitors in Europe & Asia tax. With that one change a lot of money - earned outside the U.S. by U.S. companies, will quit being held by them outside the U.S. and will start coming back into savings and investment and spending here.
With that also is some incentives to move, among a U.S. corporations many units, which unit, is holding the ownership - and revenue - for its intellectual property. Some U.S. companies that have a high ratio of earnings from intellectual property - as opposed to manufacturing - have their unit that holds ownership to that property domiciled in a foreign economy, instead of the U.S., because of our global instead of territorial tax here. Instead of keeping that intellectual property held by units domiciled elsewhere, there is some incentives, lower taxes on it, to bring the ownership-holding of that property back here.
Yeah some of the dems on this site won’t be happy with Trump’s tax plan that he will sign into law. Some of them sound like Trumka.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3610002/posts
The House and Senate bills are far closer than expected ... thus it appears likely that the final plan won’t be too far way from either the House or Senate plans. Corporate taxes will be lowered, standard deduction almost doubled, estate tax raised and the SALT exemption is gone.
Here is the comparison chart I posted on another thread
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3609978/posts?page=21#21
“I don’t really know how we got to the point where that position became “conservative” and to oppose higher Federal taxation became heresy.”
Still waiting for an answers to the following:
Why should Fedzilla pay the state taxes of any state?
Please explain how this is even remotely conservative?
“”This tax bill will be one of the largest single tax raises in history for some states and some individuals.””
They have options! Pay the taxes they owe or move to a state with no income tax.
I see you don’t have the cash to be a F R Donor.
I donated last month. So now we are trying to shame people we don’t agree with on an issue? What’s next? You want the address of my kids?
“I don’t really know how we got to the point where that position became “conservative” and to oppose higher Federal taxation became heresy. ...”
I don’t really know how we got to the point where somebody can consistently troll every thread on FR, purposely distort facts, exaggerate what is negative, deny or otherwise malign that which is positive - and not expect to get slammed.
The only “disturbing trend” I see is that, no matter the subject, you find a way to interject your obtuse opinions - which, curiously, always favor some version of “the sky is falling” mentality.
Then you act surprised when more than a few of us tell you to go piss up a rope. Your constant negativity ON EVERY FREAKING ISSUE is tiresome.
So it’s pretty much done deal that the state and local tax deductions are history, and libtard bankrupt cities citizens will cover all their voting consequences?
Nice chart. It’s a good summary of the differences.
Just because people disagree on your tax-bill take doesn’t make them Democrats or Never-Trumpers.
Given this in a once-in-a-lifetime, “historic opportunity to reform the tax code,” some of us believe it’s time to quit playing by the Marquess of Queensberry Rules. We want Trump to hang the Democrats and Goldman-Sachs both.
Yeah, right ... You would have those of us who do not live in Commiefornia continue our subsidization of YOUR state income tax deduction. Gee, thanks, buddy.
Why don’t you move to a state that is not governed by a cabal Marxist aholes, rather than bashing those of us who are smart enough not to live in a freaking godless, communist, third-world dung hole like Commiefornia?
If the Feds really wanted to help the average citizen they’d stop all the unmitigated immigration - now. That would allow the per capita standard of living to start to go up. Taxes are one thing but the flood of human capitol is the real prosperity killer.
Careful. Speaking like that around this thread will get you threatened.
Agree 100 percent.
I should not have to subsidize another citizen’s college tuition, nor their mortgage, nor their medical expenses, nor their state income and property taxes, nor the number of children they create.
The entirety of the “itemization” deduction scheme is nothing but a way to get all of us trapped into accepting insane tax rates as normal, because the federal government “rewards” us with some special cut-out, customized to our personal spending or living habits.
Further, by what right does anybody claim that their child “deserves” to go to college? IMO, unless a HS graduate possesses an exceptional intellect, they have no business entering a college of university. Most colleges have been turned into collectives of morons, whose I.Q. barely squeaks above retardation. 60 years ago, our universities were filled with the only the brightest individuals ... Now the rolls are near 100 percent imbeciles, who cannot even point out the United States on a globe, let alone discover E=mc^2
Acceptance is where I’m at with this but Trump had better get immigration right. The old Republican Establishment Uniparty game is to bait with “border security” and switch it in the back room to allow people in the country through DACA and visas etc. etc. etc.
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