the GOP-e is a LOSING ticket and not only in Va.
He wouldn’t have won regardless.
We always do this to ourselves. There was no way Gillespie was going to win. He was never ahead in the polls. Virginia is a Blue State. So we lost in a State we were always going to lose and now we look at it like a big failure. GEEZ... ENOUGH.
The East Coast is shifting to all Left, a trend that has been going on for decades. I have watched Pennsylvania go this way for a long time. Outside the urban areas, it still is conservative, but less so as time goes on. Liberalism is a progressive disease.
There are still counties in Southern Illinois that go 70 to 80% GOP. Urbanization is problematic.
over 12 % of Virginians are now foreign-born. Another large portion are hood DC overflow. It’s certainly not the state it used to be. Sad.
I understand there in much block voting - by categories:
1. Blacks, throughout state - usually over 90% for Democrats
2. Muslims, have a large population in Northern Virginia and probably vote close to 100% for Dems
3. Hispanics all over state probably vote 90% for Dems
4. Unions: government, shipyards, docks, railroad - vote strong for Dems
All that the Republican have a chance for are non-union white men and women but we don’t get enough to win Virginia. But that is the group to work on.
http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/larry-sabato-apology-bad-predictions/2016/11/09/id/758044/
Sabato couldn’t hit the side of a barn with a scattergun.
Sanatorium is right. The Dem victory in Virginia is not a surprise and certainly not predictive.
Sabato has a new and improved toupée.
Virginia is gone.
In 1990 Fairfax County was still over 80% white. It is now at 50% or maybe even slightly less.
Add to that the largeness of the federal government and the number of federal employees and contractors that live in Fairfax and surrounding counties who vote to support a large federal government.
Both of those factors contribute to voting blue with the ethnic makeup becoming a larger factor year over year.
What IS important is this: had EVERY person who voted for President Trump in 2016 voted for Gillespie in 2017, he would have won, BIG TIME!
Given the same Democrat turnout, of course.
So, the relevant question is, why did 596,117 Virginia 2016 Trump voters stay home in 2017?
Trump obviously was able to energize Republicans to get out and vote and Gillespie/VA Republican Party was not.
There is a lesson in this election result for those who would care to look!
BTW, Republicans could have won NJ also, if the 2016 Trump voters had turned out for Ms. Guadagno.