Posted on 09/04/2017 2:02:19 PM PDT by NautiNurse
While thoughts and prayers are with our Texas FRiends and neighbors, we are at the peak of the Atlantic Tropical Storm season. Hurricane Irma continues its trek from Cape Verde across the pond and toward the Hebert Box (see below). People with interests in the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf of Mexico should be alert to the forecast path updates for this powerful storm. It is important to note that the average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.
Hurricane Irma originally had a small wind field. In the past 24 hours, however, the wind field has expanded with hurriance force winds up to 40 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds up to 140 miles from the storm center.
FL Governor Rick Scott reminds Floridians: Families should take time today to make sure you have a disaster plan and fully-stocked Disaster Supply Kit. Florida residents from West Palm Beach to Tampa Bay are heeding the alert. Store shelves are emptying of bottled water.
Mash image to find lots of satellite imagery links
Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
NOAA Local Weather Statements/Radar San Juan, Puerto Rico
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Miami, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Key West, FL
Buoy Data Caribbean
Buoy Data SE US & GOM
Hebert Box - Mash Pic for Tutorial
Credit: By J Cricket - Modification of map from Wiki
YouTube:
Soggy Dollar Bar webcam: British Virgin Islds
Really scary what folks in the West are facing with these fires....
bump
Checking in briefly with my back up cell phone battery thingie, all’s well. Sorry about SXM and the VI. Here in PR the Gov and the local Wx office say that we should expect sustained winds of 50 - 80 mph, gusts 100+ in San Juan where I live from 1500 to about 1900. That’s not too bad considering.
Still without power and the utility won’t start working on repairs until tomorrow morning.
Sitting in my balcony enjoying the breeze with the occasional gust. Will head indoors to brief and button up the family real soon. Cats and plants inside. Wine chilling in the cooler.
Glad to hear the FL forecasts are tracking more to the east.
More updates when able. Thank you and the others for your thoughts.
As the computer models begin to adjust, it sucks to think all those people are possibly being evacuated from what may be a relatively safe spot right up into the path of the hurricane...
We do need to remember that the models are based on certain ranges of input. According to the SHIPs tables, Irma is impossible. I expect that the values for this storm system are outside the bounds of what the model is programmed for. I would think that actual behavior in a storm this strong is to make its own path and move some of the other systems out of the way, at least more than is normal. In other words, something that massive is less likely to turn on a dime.
Yes... That is what is most likely happening. Still though, not a lot of "safe spaces" on a Key. Unless I had a stone house above 25' elevation? I'd be outa there!
We’re rooting for you to weather Irma safely! Thank you very much for your local report. Glad you’ve been able to get fresh air up to now. Godspeed to you and your family.
Key West is a Mandatory Evacuation.....just so you know.....Family member in Northern Florida is waiting til Friday before he puts up his storm shutters. Says often these get to them only as a tropical storm........Will see how it is around Cuba and if it bounces....But Floridians are accustomed to know what to look for in how these Hurricanes are and determine their plan accordingly.
One of our FReeper friends in Key West shared a story of finding a fish on his roof after a particularly nasty hurricane.
What are you picking a fight? I asked an honest question looking for information. All of the other responses have been at least somewhat informative. Your response, however, is apparently and obviously intended to assert yourself as the foremost expert of everything and anything hurricane related at FR. Congrats. You win.
Orlando SentinelVerified account @orlandosentinel 2m2 minutes ago
Hurricane Irma has Orlando residents raiding store shelves. “Maybe it’s everything that just happened in Houston" http://thesent.nl/2eLQ3Yl
Interesting - thx!
Location...18.5N 64.7W
About 20 MI...ENE of St. Thomas
About 90 MI...E of San Juan Puerto Rico
Maximum Sustained Winds...185 MPH
Present Movement...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
Minimum Central Pressure...920 MB...27.17 Inches
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles.
I don’t know whether to be inspired or frightened more by that picture. I will err on the side of being awed by it.
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