Posted on 09/04/2017 1:46:19 PM PDT by janetjanet998
urricane Irma Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 500 PM AST Mon Sep 04 2017
Irma remains an impressive hurricane in satellite imagery. The eye has become a little smaller and cloud filled this afternoon, perhaps the result of an ongoing eyewall replacement. An Air Force reserve reconnaissance aircraft reported a double-eyewall structure and double wind maximums during the first pass through Irma but noted that the eyewalls had consolidated somewhat during their second pass through the center. The aircraft measured flight-level wind of 121 kt in the northeast eyewall and SFMR winds of 113 kt. Based on these reports, the peak intensity has been increased to 115 kt, making Irma a category four hurricane.
The hurricane will be moving through an environment of low vertical wind shear, a moist mid-level atmosphere, and increasing upper-ocean heat content. These conditions favor intensification and the intensity guidance continues to call for some additional strengthening during the next couple of days. However, there are likely to be eyewall cycles that are difficult to predict, which could result in some fluctuations in intensity. Barring land interaction with the islands of the Greater Antilles, Irma is forecast to remain a powerful hurricane throughout the 5-day forecast period.
Irma has been moving a little south of due west today, and the longer-term motion estimate is 265/11 kt. The hurricane will reach the southwestern portion of a strong mid-level ridge that is centered over the central Atlantic later today or tonight. This should result in a westward, then west-northwestward turn over the next 24 to 36 hours. This motion is expected to bring the hurricane near or over the northern Leeward Islands on Tuesday night or early Wednesday. A large mid-latitude trough that is predicted to deepen over the eastern U.S. during the next few days is forecast to lift northeastward late in the week, which is expected to cause the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic to build westward. As a result, Irma is predicted to remain on a general west-northwestward heading on days 3 through 5. The dynamical model guidance is in excellent agreement through 72 hours, with some increase in spread late in the period, however the typically more reliable ECMWF and GFS are in very good agreement through day 5, and the new NHC track forecast lies very close to those models.
Six hourly upper-air soundings began at 1800 UTC today over the central United States to better sample the upstream mid-latitude trough. In addition, the NOAA G-IV aircraft is currently sampling the environment around Irma, and these data will be included in tonight's 0000 UTC model runs.
Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track since strong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the center. In addition, average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Irma is expected to affect the northeastern Leeward Islands a dangerous major hurricane, accompanied by life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts. Hurricane warnings are in effect for portions of the Leeward Islands. Preparations should be rushed to completion, as tropical-storm force winds are expected to first arrive in the hurricane warning area by late Tuesday.
2. Irma could directly affect the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico as a dangerous major hurricane later this week. Hurricane watches have been issued for these areas, and tropical- storm-force winds could arrive in these areas by early Wednesday.
3. Irma could directly affect Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Cuba as a dangerous major hurricane later this week. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Irma and listen to advice given by officials.
4. There is an increasing chance of seeing some impacts from Irma in the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys later this week and this weekend. Otherwise, it is still too early to determine what direct impacts Irma might have on the continental United States. However, everyone in hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/2100Z 16.7N 54.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 16.6N 56.2W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 17.0N 58.7W 130 KT 150 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 17.8N 61.3W 130 KT 150 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 18.7N 64.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 20.4N 69.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 21.6N 74.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 120H 09/1800Z 23.0N 79.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
What else can I do? Where does she go in Florida if she dosen't know the exact path of the hurricane?
New Orleans is not prepared for a hurricane at all.
It’s recently come to light that the city hasn’t cleaned out most of TS catch basins and the pumps are operating at critically low levels in some parts of the city.
Any storm that drops more than a foot of rain will cause destructive flooding in those parts of the city.
If this hits anywhere from Mobile to Lafayette, the city will probably suffer greatly.
CAT4? CAT5? What is with the CATS? Is it a Catnado? Is it raining CATs and dogs?
I think tha is wise but you can also get bus or a commercial jet if your short on money.
If it gets near Texas I’ll be going on another unplanned trip.
I don't think the bus passengers will be too thrilled with a sick German Shepard on board. : (
Before I say anything else I will wait for the jet company to get back to me. If I don't do my very best and something happens to her, I will never forgive myself.
If it takes the route you posted SE Texas would be on the NE side of the storm. The nasty side.
Mitch isn’t worried about the pumps. Has to make sure all of those statues a e gone, and can start renaming the “offensive” streets down there.
>>Thanks..i m in Jacksonville fl...keep us posted ..if it hits fl, any idea when?
I’m in Jacksonville too. Looks like we’ll get it Sunday night/Monday morning. Gonna be a bad weekend for JEA.
I would definitely not stay in Fort Lauderdale. She should leave.
AGREED. Sorry, I didn’t read the dog part.
No matter what cat etc the storm is the MSM will call it “THE WORST STORM EVER”
2 huge hurricanes so close together? Must be CO2 :)
LOL!!
I would suggest you get into the Bible. Stuff happens. Yes, people died. But, people die all the time in events. God causes things to happen. Satan causes things to happen within God’s control. AND, sometimes, things just happen. You need to get into the Scriptures and learn a little bit about what is going on. However, if you are not a believer in Jesus Christ as Savior, you will not truly understand the Scriptures. The Scriptures tell us that. And, no pal, I don’t for a minute claim to know God’s mind. The Bible clearly tells us that His ways are higher than our ways and His thoughts are higher than our thoughts. But, YES, God punishes. And, yes, in those punishments people die. Read the book of Revelation. It CLEARLY tells us that in the Tribulation, at two different times, 1/3d of the earth’s population will die. That is about 1.7 BILLION each time. And, in the time of Jacob’s Troubles, 2/3ds of the entire Jewish race will die. He will bring only 1/3d through the fire, as the Scriptures tell us. So, my thoughts are based on what He has done in the past, what He is doing now, and what He clearly tells us is coming upon this world in the future. If you do not believe that, then you do so at your own peril.
Truly frightening... I remember Andrew in ‘92. I couldn’t believe the damage. Even seasoned hurricane experts were stunned. It’s wind gusts might have approached 200 m.p.h. and severely damaged concrete buildings and turned Homestead Air Force Base into an unusable wreck. It barely missed Miami that time. I can’t imagine what would happen if 170 m.p.h. winds would do to the many highrises of Miami and Miami Beach. The wind tunnel effect would strip the buildings to steel skeletons. Exposed to salt water, they would rust overnight. All wooden buildings would be destroyed. Could result in a significant depopulation of south Florida.
Praying it misses.
We all have responsibilities. Tough choices....
All I know, you don't want to be in the path of a Cat 4 or 5.
God Speed to all.
I will know it is time to start preparing when they start flying planes out of Eglin and Tyndall.
No, one need not be god to know that He judges both people and nations, and indeed He can and has killed innocent people, (Exodus 11:5) and ordered it, (Deuteronomy 2:34; 20:16) delivering such innocent as the very young (cf. Is. 7: Is. 7:6) from becoming like their Hell-bound adults, and which God, as the giver of life, has the right to do.
However, the idea that morally accountable souls are innocent is simply contrary to Scripture, which testifies that "all have sinned, and come short of the glory of God;" (Romans 3:23) and thus the Lord warned,
And Jesus answering said unto them, Suppose ye that these Galilæans were sinners above all the Galilæans, because they suffered such things? I tell you, Nay: but, except ye repent, ye shall all likewise perish. Or those eighteen, upon whom the tower in Siloam fell, and slew them, think ye that they were sinners above all men that dwelt in Jerusalem? I tell you, Nay: but, except ye repent, ye shall all likewise perish . (Luke 13:2-5)
We cannot deny that God sends punishments for sin both upon individuals and nations, and should affirm that He does, and warn the wicked as He commands, (Ezek. 33:8) but we must be careful about must be careful about thinking that we are above such.
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