Posted on 09/04/2017 1:46:19 PM PDT by janetjanet998
urricane Irma Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 500 PM AST Mon Sep 04 2017
Irma remains an impressive hurricane in satellite imagery. The eye has become a little smaller and cloud filled this afternoon, perhaps the result of an ongoing eyewall replacement. An Air Force reserve reconnaissance aircraft reported a double-eyewall structure and double wind maximums during the first pass through Irma but noted that the eyewalls had consolidated somewhat during their second pass through the center. The aircraft measured flight-level wind of 121 kt in the northeast eyewall and SFMR winds of 113 kt. Based on these reports, the peak intensity has been increased to 115 kt, making Irma a category four hurricane.
The hurricane will be moving through an environment of low vertical wind shear, a moist mid-level atmosphere, and increasing upper-ocean heat content. These conditions favor intensification and the intensity guidance continues to call for some additional strengthening during the next couple of days. However, there are likely to be eyewall cycles that are difficult to predict, which could result in some fluctuations in intensity. Barring land interaction with the islands of the Greater Antilles, Irma is forecast to remain a powerful hurricane throughout the 5-day forecast period.
Irma has been moving a little south of due west today, and the longer-term motion estimate is 265/11 kt. The hurricane will reach the southwestern portion of a strong mid-level ridge that is centered over the central Atlantic later today or tonight. This should result in a westward, then west-northwestward turn over the next 24 to 36 hours. This motion is expected to bring the hurricane near or over the northern Leeward Islands on Tuesday night or early Wednesday. A large mid-latitude trough that is predicted to deepen over the eastern U.S. during the next few days is forecast to lift northeastward late in the week, which is expected to cause the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic to build westward. As a result, Irma is predicted to remain on a general west-northwestward heading on days 3 through 5. The dynamical model guidance is in excellent agreement through 72 hours, with some increase in spread late in the period, however the typically more reliable ECMWF and GFS are in very good agreement through day 5, and the new NHC track forecast lies very close to those models.
Six hourly upper-air soundings began at 1800 UTC today over the central United States to better sample the upstream mid-latitude trough. In addition, the NOAA G-IV aircraft is currently sampling the environment around Irma, and these data will be included in tonight's 0000 UTC model runs.
Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track since strong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the center. In addition, average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Irma is expected to affect the northeastern Leeward Islands a dangerous major hurricane, accompanied by life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts. Hurricane warnings are in effect for portions of the Leeward Islands. Preparations should be rushed to completion, as tropical-storm force winds are expected to first arrive in the hurricane warning area by late Tuesday.
2. Irma could directly affect the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico as a dangerous major hurricane later this week. Hurricane watches have been issued for these areas, and tropical- storm-force winds could arrive in these areas by early Wednesday.
3. Irma could directly affect Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Cuba as a dangerous major hurricane later this week. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Irma and listen to advice given by officials.
4. There is an increasing chance of seeing some impacts from Irma in the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys later this week and this weekend. Otherwise, it is still too early to determine what direct impacts Irma might have on the continental United States. However, everyone in hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/2100Z 16.7N 54.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 16.6N 56.2W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 17.0N 58.7W 130 KT 150 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 17.8N 61.3W 130 KT 150 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 18.7N 64.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 20.4N 69.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 21.6N 74.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 120H 09/1800Z 23.0N 79.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
New Orleans? Time to get ready right about now.
St Augustine, and we got battered last year, so lets hope we do not get hit again.
This, complete with link. http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3583121/posts?page=1
The Euro and GFS models are in excellent agreement which is very rare..with the due north turn..EURO is a tad more east and the better scenario since the front eye would stay just offshore
the NWS will be launching weather balloons every 6 hours instead of 12 hours over much of the plains and midwest to get more data from the upstream stations.
Also, NOAA will be flying missions to collect data around the hurricane and west of it. This extra data will be put into the models
of course the USAF will have the HH aircraft in there too
Strange, last year here in Hawaii we had three hurricanes lined up in a row coming in. This year, very quiet, but the SE is not looking good. Their turn to not have much last year.
NautiNurse thread is up now, with link. http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3583121/posts?page=1
We are warning our nieces in Fort Myers to prepare for the worst. They just bought a new house which is on a canal but sits on an elevated lot.
OK that will be the main thread
MODS please pull this thread
thanks
Mods, please link NautiNurse in Breaking too. Thanks Janet!
I hope so as well, but not looking like it.
Two major hurricanes back to back is not good.
This will produce climate change where ever it lands.
I know a lot of you folks don't believe as deeply as I do in God, but if you remember back, Hurricane Katrina did not come off Africa and track across the islands and Cuba and come into the Gulf. No, it grew right up in the Gulf and smashed into New Orleans right in the middle of their annual Homosexual gay pride days!!!
Now, Houston has been smashed. Why?? I think it had a lot to do with the lesbian homo mayor who demanded all the local pastors send in their sermons so that she and her Dim pals could do harm to the pastors and their churches. However it backfired on her as pastors all around the USA started sending in all the written outlines and sermons they had on file. Her office was overrun with the documents. Finally, she withdrew the demand to send in sermons.
BUT, God does not forget. I believe in my heart that this could be God's judgment on her and that city. I also believe it is God telling America that we are now on our last chance to repent as a nation and turn this nation around. I think the last second victory for Trump. The Book of Daniel tells us that the LORD God of Heaven and Earth chooses and deposes all leaders. God put Trump in office. He gave America one last chance. I believe all these things are signs from Heaven that we are getting our very last chances to repent as a Nation. Otherwise, He is going to give this nation everything it deserves, pure hell, with the Dims getting into office in all the high places and taking over and finally turning this nation into North Korea West. Hillary, a 9 member liberal Supreme Court, a fully homoed military, you name it. We are on our last chance. God will not be mocked. If you do not know Him, I pray you will seriously start trying. Maranatha!!!
Please Scroll down to figs 5 and 6:
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/threat-increasing-cuba-florida-intensifying-irma
Joe Bastardi nailed the westward path a week ago.
Go to "Home" tab.
Scroll down to Joe Bastardi’s pic.
Hit the arrow on “Daily Weather Update”.
https://www.weatherbell.com/#featured
My niece is by herself in Ft Lauderdale just on the other side of the Intercostal.
Her father will be flying back from Europe on Monday via Detroit. All her neighbors are helping out. Her Mom will be flying back September 22.
Tomorrow she will decide if she wants me to fly down to help out. Luckily she is prepared with most everything. Any advice?
It looks like the Keys are going to be scrubbed clean.
If it does reach a cat 5 and the right side of the storm passed over the keys like that, they are toast.
If it hits New York City, I will be there. Hopefully it does not because a major hurricane in New York City will not end well.
I hope someone evacs the Hemingway cats...
Het, retired. With all due respect. There is no such thing as “tich” waters and you must be “god” if you know what his will is or think that he would kill innocent people.
EVACUATE
I'm also in Mobile and hoping for a sharp turn into the Atlantic. I missed Katrina's storm surge getting in my house by about 3". I don't want to do this again.
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