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Falling Off the Demographic Cliff
Crisis Magazine ^ | May 15, 2017 | WILLIAM KILPATRICK

Posted on 05/20/2017 2:24:26 PM PDT by NYer

Friends who visit Europe with large families in tow tell me they soon become “tourist attractions” themselves.

Europeans are used to Muslims with large families. But Americans? People from a prosperous developed nation? How odd. Don’t they know that children get in the way of self-fulfillment? That population growth is bad for the environment?

The visiting Americans with large families are almost invariably Christians—another segment of European society that, along with children, seems to be on the way out. In 2016 more than 90,000 people dropped out of the Church of Sweden, and Norway’s State Church lost more than 25,000 members in a single month. The trend is similar in the UK where the Archdiocese of St. Andrews and Edinburgh will cut the number of parishes from 100 to 30. Meanwhile, the Archbishop of Utrecht in the Netherlands announced that about a thousand parishes would close by 2025. The Archdiocese of Vienna is also downsizing. In the next ten years it will combine 660 parishes into just 150.

You’ve probably seen the dismal birth rate figures for native Europeans. In most countries it’s below replacement level. If you’re an investor, that means it’s time to buy funeral homes and sell doll house manufacturers. Actually, it’s well past time for that market move. A better bet would be to invest in that new chain of hijab and burqa boutiques that is all the rage in the big cities.

According to a new study, a quarter of European women born in the 1970s may remain childless. That trend is reflected in the fact that Europe’s most important leaders are all childless. That’s the case with the German chancellor, and with the British, Swedish, Dutch, Italian, Scottish, and Luxembourg prime ministers. The newly elected president of France, Emmanuel Macron, is also childless and is likely to remain that way since the 39-year-old is married to his 64-year-old former teacher.

What’s the problem with leaders sans offspring? As every parent knows, people with children have more of a stake in the future. They worry about the kind of world that their children will have to live in. And once their children grow up, they start worrying about their grandchildren’s future. On the other hand, childless individuals have less reason to worry about what comes after them. This is less of a concern when the childless couple lives in the apartment upstairs, but when they reside in the presidential palace, or the prime minister’s residence it’s more worrisome.

It’s not a good omen when the leader of your nation doesn’t have to worry about what sort of country his or her progeny will grow up in. It’s even possible that the maternal or paternal instinct can be displaced onto non-native sons and daughters. For example, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has been called “the compassionate mother” of migrants, for having opened the border to millions of migrants mostly from Muslim countries. And if they don’t assimilate? Well, that’s a problem for other mutters to worry about.

President Macron has a similar solicitude about Muslim migrants. He has promised to facilitate immigration from the Arab world by preserving “an open and welcoming France,” called for the construction of more mosques in France, and has suggested that since “French culture does not exist,” there is no great need for migrants to assimilate to it. French critics refer to Macron as “Peter Pan in the Elysée,” but at least Peter Pan worried about the pirate problem. Macron, however, has rejected former President Hollande’s assertion that “France has a problem with Islam,” and he is against suspending the citizenship of jihadists.

Meanwhile, as Europe’s native population declines, Muslims in Europe are having children, and Turkey’s caliph—I mean, president—wants them to have more. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has urged Turks living in Europe to have “not three, but five children” because “you are the future of Europe.”

He’s probably right about that. As columnist Mark Steyn likes to say, “The future belongs to those who show up for it.” And right now it’s the Muslim children who are showing up for Europe’s future. In Vienna, Birmingham, and other European cities, there are already more Muslim than Christian children.

Just to make sure that trend continues, Turkey’s Interior Minister, Suleyman Soylu, has suggested that Turkey could send 15,000 refugees a month to Europe. Meanwhile, Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu warned that “religion wars will soon begin in Europe,” and he cautioned that European politicians are taking the continent “to a cliff.”

Actually, Europe is not headed for a cliff; it’s already gone off it—the demographic cliff, that is. It just hasn’t hit bottom yet. The full effects of the demographic bust won’t arrive for a decade or so. That’s because the Euro-Stork brings fewer babies with each passing year. The people who were never born twenty-five years ago can’t very well make up the birth-rate deficit. And too many of the people who were lucky enough to be born aren’t passing on the good fortune.

That doesn’t apply, of course, to the European Turks, Moroccans, and Pakistanis. They’re having three children per family and, if Erdogan has his way, they’ll have five. A long time ago, Turkey was referred to as “the sick man of Europe.” Now it looks like the Europeans are the sick men of Europe, and the Turks look healthy by comparison. Unlike Europe’s childless leaders, the Turks do seem to take an interest in the future of Europe. But what they envision is an Islamic future.

After an EU ruling allowing employers to ban headscarves, Erdogan accused the EU of starting “a clash between crescent and cross.” But, as he surely realizes, no clash will be necessary. Time is on the side of the Turks, and so are the mathematics of demography. After another decade or so of demographic transformation, the aging population of Europe will be in no shape for a clash.

Editor’s note: Pictured above is newly elected French president Emmanuel Macron with his wife, Brigitte Marie-Claude Macron.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Government; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: birthrate; catholic; deathofthewest; demographics; europe; family; islam; trends; us
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1 posted on 05/20/2017 2:24:27 PM PDT by NYer
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To: Tax-chick; GregB; SumProVita; narses; bboop; SevenofNine; Ronaldus Magnus; tiki; Salvation; ...
The trend is similar in the UK where the Archdiocese of St. Andrews and Edinburgh will cut the number of parishes from 100 to 30. Meanwhile, the Archbishop of Utrecht in the Netherlands announced that about a thousand parishes would close by 2025. The Archdiocese of Vienna is also downsizing. In the next ten years it will combine 660 parishes into just 150.

Catholic ping!

2 posted on 05/20/2017 2:25:42 PM PDT by NYer ("You are a puff of smoke that appears briefly and then disappears." James 4:14)
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To: NYer
I'm pretty sure my Dad never had two nickels he could rub together. He did have seven kids, two that preceded him to Valhalla. The other five were his close friends who were with him at the end.

The other five remained close friends with each other.

Making babies and raising kids is an act of faith. I know from personal experience, it's also a fulfilling line of work if you do it right, although I didn't do it to my parents' degree.

People so into self fulfillment that they have no time for acts of faith don't have to worry about dying and going to hell. They are living in it.

3 posted on 05/20/2017 2:32:42 PM PDT by stevem
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To: NYer
If you look at the statistics, the downward trend in birth rates began in the West with the arrival of the Industrial Revolution and has been consistent ever since. It began well before the widespread availability of birth control.

Most of Europe is below replacement level and is still going down. Since this has never before happened in history we don't know what the floor might be or if there is a floor.

The same trend is affecting Americans of European ancestry. The only reason we haven't fallen off the cliff yet is birth rates among immigrants - and the State of Utah.

4 posted on 05/20/2017 2:32:57 PM PDT by colorado tanker
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To: NYer

Someone would have to be independently wealthy to take a large family to Europe for a vacation.


5 posted on 05/20/2017 2:35:41 PM PDT by PAR35
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To: NYer

6 posted on 05/20/2017 2:44:19 PM PDT by brucedickinson
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To: brucedickinson

Find out who the women are who want 3+ children and bring them here. Hopefully she’s got a signifigant other with a job skill.


7 posted on 05/20/2017 2:50:58 PM PDT by DIRTYSECRET (urope. Why do they put up with this.)
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To: PAR35

I’ve got 4 kids. Not large by any means, but larger than average. And the six of us have gone to Europe several times. And we are far from independently wealthy. Just requires a bit of ingenuity :)


8 posted on 05/20/2017 3:04:37 PM PDT by bigdaddy45
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To: NYer

“They’re having three children per family and, if Erdogan has his way, they’ll have five.”


I had my kids years ago.

There were huge families in my neighborhood——and if anyone asked me how many kids I had I would say,”Just five.”.

.


9 posted on 05/20/2017 3:05:00 PM PDT by Mears
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To: colorado tanker

Utah is known as a center of the Mormon faith. Devout Mormons do not believe in birth control.

We could probably write an entire book, about population trends, and reasons behind them.

But the implications for society are profound.

For example, tens of millions of babies have been aborted since Roe vs. Wade. Some think that our illegal immigration problem stems in part from that fact. According to that theory, the fact that people in our native born population were not having as many children as previously, created gaps in our labor markets, which were filled by illegals.

I’ve heard other theories too, along the lines of, people didn’t want large families for various reasons, and reliable birth control allowed for people to have as many, or as few, as they ideally wanted. Surprise 3rd or 4th babies are a thing of the past for significant numbers of people nowadays.


10 posted on 05/20/2017 3:05:52 PM PDT by Dilbert San Diego
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To: NYer

Is it really a potential clash of the crescent and cross in Europe?? Given that so many in Europe aren’t members of Christian denominations anymore, it might be better said to be a clash between the crescent and secularism.


11 posted on 05/20/2017 3:06:57 PM PDT by Dilbert San Diego
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To: brucedickinson

I never understand, how somebody can treat their pets as if they are their children. I wonder if this woman is childless?

I may get flamed here, as I know that there are many animal lovers here, and I’m not really one of them. But, even if you love animals and your pets, are they really on the same level as your own children, or a substitute for children???


12 posted on 05/20/2017 3:09:30 PM PDT by Dilbert San Diego
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To: Dilbert San Diego

>I may get flamed here, as I know that there are many animal lovers here, and I’m not really one of them. But, even if you love animals and your pets, are they really on the same level as your own children, or a substitute for children???

People call them fur kids. I’m not kidding.


13 posted on 05/20/2017 3:10:27 PM PDT by JohnyBoy
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To: stevem

> People so into self fulfillment that they have no time for acts of faith don’t have to worry about dying and going to hell. They are living in it.

It’s really more a factor of women’s liberation. The more liberated women are the fewer the kids they have. Men don’t have much of a say in the matter.


14 posted on 05/20/2017 3:11:34 PM PDT by JohnyBoy
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To: JohnyBoy

We could really question the impact of “women’s lib”.

I thought originally, the issues centered around equal rights for women in the workplace; that women are able to get into professional careers and be firemen and electricians and all the rest of it, alongside men. And that women would have more choices in their lives.

Somewhere along the lines, it seems it morphed into a movement for women to do those things, but also, to denigrate the women who choose to stay home with children, and/or have career moves take a backseat to the needs of the ir families. It’s as if the women’s movement didn’t want women to have more choices about their lives, but rather, fit into a straightjacket of going for the professional career, and having that take priority.

Many women seem to try to fit their family responsibilities around their careers, as opposed to fitting their careers and job around their families needs.


15 posted on 05/20/2017 3:20:34 PM PDT by Dilbert San Diego
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To: Dilbert San Diego

“But, even if you love animals and your pets, are they really on the same level as your own children, or a substitute for children?”

Of course not.

Well, except for my childless, ‘Crazy Cat Lady’ Sister.

*SMIRK*

P.S. Beau and I have 14 dogs, a few barn cats, a mule and NO kids between us. We are amazingly HAPPY with the situation. In our previous lives, I raised three step-sons to adulthood, he raised 14 Foster kids with his (deceased) wife. We’ve done our part for Society. ;)


16 posted on 05/20/2017 3:21:34 PM PDT by Diana in Wisconsin (I don't have 'Hobbies.' I'm developing a robust Post-Apocalyptic skill set!)
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To: NYer

Is that the new PM and his ‘Mommy’? Pretty sure those two won’t be helping to repopulate Europe, either. ;)


17 posted on 05/20/2017 3:22:46 PM PDT by Diana in Wisconsin (I don't have 'Hobbies.' I'm developing a robust Post-Apocalyptic skill set!)
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To: stevem
People so into self fulfillment that they have no time for acts of faith don't have to worry about dying and going to hell. They are living in it.

Kudos! You nailed it. Our society has evolved into one of self fulfillment. Parents invest in their children's college education in hopes of them achieving success. With success comes time commitments, leaving little or no time for a family. Even in Japan, pets are now the new family, not human children. Meanwhile, the muslims are reproducing like rabbits, poised to take over the west. Fortunately, I won't be around to see this.

18 posted on 05/20/2017 3:24:27 PM PDT by NYer ("You are a puff of smoke that appears briefly and then disappears." James 4:14)
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To: Diana in Wisconsin

God bless you Diana. Yes the two of you have done your part in raising the next generation. Kudos to your man for his role in raising the foster children. Sadly too many children don’t have the best upbringing, but he and his late wife did what they could to help children in a difficult situation. My heart goes out to people who give of themselves that way.

And kudos to you for raising three stepsons.


19 posted on 05/20/2017 3:27:23 PM PDT by Dilbert San Diego
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To: Diana in Wisconsin

Yep, I think she’s too old to have children anymore.

Usually a “May December” thing has the man of the couple being the older one. Interesting situation.


20 posted on 05/20/2017 3:29:22 PM PDT by Dilbert San Diego
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