It would only generate the 16-million if idiots went out and bought only from local dealers within the city limits. Most people will go outside of the city....buy bulk....and bring the drinks with them to work. So, at best, in a year...instead of 16-million, I’d lean more toward 4-million instead.
A real news media would examine the numbers and identify this as a tax failure, but I doubt if you have such a vehicle in Seattle.
Philadelphia did this. I'd lean towards an 8 million loss when everything is figured in.
In Philly, not only do people now drive out of the city to buy their beverages, they buy everything else while they are at it. The only ones who actually pay the tax are poor people who can't drive. Oh, and there have been layoffs at Philly beverage distributors and supermarkets, so there are now more poor people in Philly, too.
"Many local businesses are seeing total sales plummet as much as 20 to 40 percent as families flee the tax and begin to do more of their shopping in nearby suburban communities."
"Coca-Cola says Philadelphia soda tax has led to loss of 40 jobs"
I suspect people in my state of NJ are less diet-conscious than those in Seattle, and soda is already losing its appeal here. 2-liter bottles can be bought for $1 apiece in supermarkets (if you buy four or five), while delis/quik-e-marts still try to (unsuccessfully) sell 20 oz. bottles for $1.50+.
In addition to Americans becoming more health-conscious, more and more of our consumers aren’t Americans anyway - they are people with no cultural tie to soda.