America Should Be Ready, Venezuela Might Become the Next Syria

Townhall.com ^ | April 24, 2017 | David Grantham

[Kaslin]

Said former British Prime Minister Winston Churchill of Nazi buildup in Europe: “When the situation was manageable it was neglected, and now that it is thoroughly out of hand we apply too late the remedies which then might have effected a cure.” The unwillingness to act when such action would have been simple and effective constitutes the “endless repetition of history,” he concluded.

Today, observers would rightly associate this statement with Syria. But Churchill did not make this proclamation so future generations would seek out examples that affirmed his logic. He made the statement so future generations would break that dreadful repetition. This is not just a quote of self reflection - it’s a call to action.

Syria is thoroughly out of hand and late remedies are now being applied. The cycle of historical inaction will not be broken in Syria. Pundits, politicians and military officials would be wise to stop reliving what could have been done there, and start looking at what can be done elsewhere. Therefore, the American government must determine the likelihood of Venezuela becoming another Syria - this time in the western hemisphere. The United States and its Latin American allies must then collectively decide whether to do anything about it.

In their quest for more and more power, Chavez and then Maduro made reliable access to basic necessities a virtual impossibility. Maduro then had the Supreme Court dissolve the Congress after the Venezuelan people stocked the legislature with opposition members through democratic elections. Although international outcry forced him to partially rescind that order, Maduro continues to issue tyrannical edicts that will have the same effect at a slower pace. Now the Maduro regime has armed loyalists to seek out and kill dissenters. Over twenty people have died in riots over the last few weeks.

This administration would rather starve its people than relinquish power. Maduro would rather dismantle government and assassinate opponents than keep the country viable. History tells us that such despotism and subsequent international inaction can lead to Assad-like levels of oppression.

Making matters worse, this regime has allowed international criminal networks and terrorist organizations, like Hezbollah, to thrive within the country’s borders. This permissive environment has thoroughly compromised the upper echelons of the Venezuelan government and allowed illicit behavior to permeate the economy and society.

Most important, the same actors in Russia and Iran that prevent Assad’s demise are the same players underwriting Venezuelan tyranny. Remember that Vice President Tareck El Aissami is Hezbollah’s go-to guy in the administration. Experts should not be fooled into thinking that geographic distance will dissuade Russia or Iran from intervening on Maduro’s behalf. Neither country will so easily cede such a strategic and lucrative relationship – one that each country has spent years cultivating.

President Trump must be prepared for the possibility of a Syria in the western hemisphere. The administration has already taken steps to sanction high-level Venezuelan officials for their work with cartels and known terrorist organizations. But they must also be prepared for preemptive action:

• Anticipate and be prepared for the possibility that Russia, Iran and/or Hezbollah will help Maduro crush dissent, covertly or otherwise. Do not be caught off guard when they block U.N. resolutions, cripple Maduro’s adversaries through cyber attacks, or, in an extreme situation, deploy military assets.
• Consider how and where to erect safe zones because a failing state may create a refugee crisis in a region already plagued by economic and social instability.
• Work with Latin American allies to demand a democratic resolution. Don’t wait for collapse to be spurred into action.

This is not a call for military intervention. It is merely a reminder that the arc of history bends toward inaction – something we often come to regret.

[dfwgator]

So was this.

[Little Ray]

Considering that we have made a mess of it in pest holes like Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, and Syria, and betrayed our ally in Egypt, I don’t think we fix the problem when we get involved.

If these places had improved thanks to our intervention, or if we had profited significantly, I might agree, but it has not worked out very well for us or for them, has it?

Better to save the lives of our troops and our treasure to defend our own borders.

[PapaBear3625]

Better to save the lives of our troops and our treasure to defend our own borders.

Agreed. Better use of our troops would be to deploy all along the border, with orders to repel invasion.

[Bodega]

Thank you for posting this response. Tareck El Aissami has been sanctioned by the Trump Administration as of the end of February.

//www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2017/03/20/venezuelan-vp-tareck-el-aissami-is-bad-news/#6ebc99ea2050

His father, Saidan El Amin El Aissami (Carlos Saidan) is noted as a radical and ardent supporter of Islamic jihad and associated with the Iraqi Resistance.

Between that jihadi influence and Maduro, I’d say the people of that country are doomed without active military interference.

[G Larry]

I didn’t say we should repeat Obama’s stupid methods.

Those messes were intentional on his part.

[Bodega]

Yes, it is our problem but not our problem alone.

//www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2017/03/20/venezuelan-vp-tareck-el-aissami-is-bad-news/#6ebc99ea2050

The problem is that all those passports allow easy egress to the US...and I think we all may have a tiny bit of an idea what trouble that could cause?

[WatchungEagle]

We should stay out of Venezuela and Syria.

[Little Ray]

Even if we are rid of Obama, we are not rid of the State Department.
During the Cold War, the State Department was the most heavily infiltrated part of the US Government. That legacy still runs the State Department. Unfortunately, thanks to Civil Service Act, they are likely to be there after Pres. Trump is gone.

[G Larry]

The State Dept. has been at odds w America for over 60 years.

The best person to clean up that mess is John Bolton, although I don’t expect you to agree.

[Rebelbase]

Cuba, Nicaragua and now Venezuela offer dissenting points of view.

[editor-surveyor]

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Columbia is already putting up defenses.

You have to have mucho dinero to cross the border.

Fortunately there is a big ditch between them and us!
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[editor-surveyor]

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You’re just not inclined to be “aware.”
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[editor-surveyor]

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>> “The best person to clean up that mess is John Bolton” <<

AMEN!
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[Mr. Douglas]

I’m so aware I moved from Seattle, my home of 46 years, in 2011, to a small farm in central, rural KY. We can live off the land there, if we absolutely have to... :-)

[Mr. Douglas]

I think south america is still mostly catholic.

[editor-surveyor]

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Technically, south America is quite pagan, and the churches accommodate “whatever.”

But there is a huge muzzy component to everything, except for Peru.

Peru has their guard up. Lots of federalies everywhere, and they take no crap.

[Billthedrill]

Of the author's recommendations, "be ready for" isn't actually much help. Syria isn't quite the model I'd have chosen, either - what Iran looks like now, with a ruling elite supported by extensive paramilitary thugs, that's what is likely to be Venezuela's direction. It could be stabilized were Venezuela to manage to revive its oil income under a state banner. That doesn't look likely at the moment but it's an untapped resource. The Russians and the Saudis don't really want another competitor in that regard even under the context of hemispherical mischief, but perhaps the Chinese do.

But any such revival will pretty much have to be external in origin because the country's internal economic resources are just about played out. We can make diplomatic efforts to minimize the external meddling but Venezuela is going to have to solve the internal problem by itself.

And the risk of state-level interference is very real. It was not all that long ago that Huey Chavez was talking up placing Iranian missiles on Venezuelan territory. Couple that with an Iranian nuclear capability and it isn't Syria we've got, it's Cuba in the 60's.