Why Trump’s Inauguration is Not the Beginning of an Era -- but the End

Medium.com ^ | 1/19/2017 | Peter Leyden

[T-Bird45]

I spent a good chunk of the holiday break in a cabin with a spectacular view of a bay just off the Pacific Ocean outside the tiny town of Inverness north of San Francisco. It reminds me of the view from the cabin I grew up with in the American heartland, outside the Twin Cities in Minnesota. Looking out over the natural beauty of this amazing country of ours helped me think through the tumultuous past year with a big-picture, more timeless perspective. It helped me get clear about what lies ahead.

The Brexit vote in England and then the election of Donald Trump, those two unexpected but consequential convulsions, are going to bring some big changes, many to be feared, but others to be welcomed. To my mind, both were driven by fear of the future and “a wildly mistaken interpretation of what is happening to us.” Both are going to make for some near-term chaos, but in the end I actually think they are going to accelerate changes that finally need to come.

I did not see Trump coming. I was one of those who could not believe that the America I knew, a country of decent, common-sense people, could elect a person like him. I was despondent on election night and disoriented for weeks. I’ve spent the last couple months listening, reading, thinking, and staying open to what is really happening, and what now needs to be done. On the eve of his inauguration, here’s my positive reframe of what I think is really going on:

Trump is a symptom of something much bigger and more fundamental going on in the world. So are the people behind Brexit in Great Britain. They are not driving the change, they are reacting to the change. They are not showing the way forward, they are making desperate attempts to cling to the past, a past that is gone forever.

The world is in the relatively early stages of an almost inevitable transition to what can be best understood as a new 21st-century civilization. Relatively early — meaning roughly one-third of the way through. And almost inevitable — meaning it can be derailed if we make some catastrophic political choices.

There are three fundamentally different characteristics of this civilization: One, it will be run totally on digital technologies, smarter and smarter, more and more interconnected computers. Two, it will be totally global and operate on a planetary scale. And three, it will have to be sustainable, in its energy usage and its impact on the planet.

All three of these shifts are well underway and can be tracked and explained by pointing to investments, the morphing of the advanced economy, the positioning of leading companies, and just following what innovative people are doing. In many ways, these developments are happening despite what governments do. Governments can make things better, and accelerate changes, or slow down changes, but they can’t stop them at this macro level.

That said, politics can really screw things up. Changes of this magnitude can be very scary. New digital technologies allow totally new ways to do almost everything so they are very disruptive to old industries. The newest developments arriving just now are especially scary — self-driving cars, advanced robots, artificial intelligence. The globalization of everything is unleashing floods of cheap goods as well as waves of migrants.

It’s easy for politicians to whip up public fears against these changes and rally people to go back to the old ways, to make America great again. This is the standard playbook for right-wing nationalism. In the 1930s, when Keynes wrote the prescient passage above, that era’s right wing took those fears and drove a good chunk of the world into fascism and a world war. Today Trump is heading down that path — but he won’t get far.

I think Trump ultimately is going to do America and the world a service by becoming the vehicle that will finally take down right-wing conservative politics for a generation or two. He is getting the entire Republican conservative establishment to buy into his regime. He is creating an administration that is blatantly all about rule by — and for — billionaires, sold out to the oil and carbon industries, and celebrating an out-of-control corporate capitalism. It will be a caricature of conservative policies. In short order he will completely and irrevocably alienate all the growing political constituencies of the 21st century: the Millennial Generation, people of color, educated professionals, women. He’ll eventually do the same for a significant number of more moderate Republicans. And does anyone out there really think Trump will do anything for the white working class that got him elected? Watch as repealing Obamacare blows up in his face.

I think the backlash will be fast and furious. And it won’t just be Trump that goes down — it will be large swaths of conservative Republicans who will be almost helpless to stop Trump or distance themselves from him. They will pay the price for creating the conditions that created him. I think the next 4 to 8 years are going to see a serious sea change in politics — to the left, not the right. The analogy is closer to what happened to the conservative Republicans coming out of the 1930s — they were out of power for the next 50 years.

A Hillary Clinton win would not have brought about that kind of political transformation. She would have ground out some progress through trench warfare and built somewhat on Obama’s legacy— but the Republicans would have locked her down worse than they did with Obama. Hillary would not have been able to finally bring down the conservative movement and its archaic ideology. The conservatives arguably brought a healthy revitalization to Western politics in the Reagan/Thatcher era. But that vitality is long gone and the movement has been running on the same old out-moded ideas for decades now. The world needs to move on.

Hillary would not have been the transformational leader that America needs right now either. We need leadership to help take the world to the next level, making the full transition to digital technologies, reshaping capitalism to rebalance massive inequalities, and making big progress on climate change.

Where do we look for that leadership? Without outsiders taking much notice, California has gone through that political transformation, as usual, early. We were trapped in the polarized politics that paralyzed government in the 1990s and 2000s. We had the high numbers of immigrants who were scapegoated. We had a frustrated electorate elect a Hollywood celebrity with no government experience with Arnold Schwarzenegger. Been there, done that.

Today California is totally run by a new generation of progressive Democrats. Every single state-wide office. Super majorities in both Houses. There are no conservative Republican elected officials to speak of in California right now. The conservative ideology, those policies, are dead.

I’ve long been thumping the idea that California is the future. The San Francisco Bay Area is obviously ground zero for Silicon Valley and tech. It’s about as good a melting pot of global influences as anywhere on the planet. And it’s on the front lip of clean energy and sustainability. So that would be a good place to look for how those three massive 21st-century shifts will play out.

In other words, to use the Keynes framework that started this piece, California is already living in the next economic period — and it’s booming. The next economy is working here — and working for the vast majority. Even the white working class is on board. Trump lost to Hillary in California by 4 million votes.

Now add to that a state and local political environment where progressives have no meaningful opposition and an open field ahead of them. I think we’re going to see an explosion of innovation that roughs out a new way forward for the center-left in America and even has implications for Europe and the world.

My company Reinvent is really fortunate to be in the middle of that swirl of possibilities. We bring together top innovators in deep conversations about how to solve complex challenges — and then make media about the ideas to emerge. We partner with forward-thinking organizations who want to generate new ideas and drive more innovation in a field. We also host What’s Now: San Francisco that each month focuses on the latest developments in one of the many fields exploding in innovation across the region.

Look for innovation to now move into hyper-drive in the realms of government and politics throughout California — and particularly in the San Franicsco Bay Area. I know our company is working on ways to catalyze these kinds of conversations and do our part to reinvent political grand strategy along the lines of what I’ve been laying out here. But there are already many efforts popping up to move this next-generation politics forward.

Now it’s possible that this whole analysis I have laid out is wrong. After all, I predicted that Hillary was going to win this last election. (Though who didn’t?) But it’s certainly worth seriously considering a scenario like this. Republicans clapping at Trump’s Inauguration should be very careful about what they wish for. Democrats wringing their hands in anguish should pause too.

Stay open to counter-intuitive, out-of-the-box interpretations. Too few of us did last year. Be ready to make hard choices when unexpected new options open up quickly. We all may be faced with them soon. Brace for the big changes to come. They’re coming.

Most of all, for those who supported President Obama, stay hopeful. I truly believe that the politics and policies that President Obama helped usher in will prevail in the end. In the big-picture view of history, the brief Trump reign will be seen as a difficult but necessary step in the massive transition between one economic period to another.

Obama’s decade of work will be seen, in the decades to come, as the truly enduring foundation. He laid the groundwork for what will certainly become the all-digital, fully global, sustainable civilization of the 21st century.

[mom of young patriots]

“I think Trump ultimately is going to do America and the world a service by becoming the vehicle that will finally take down right-wing conservative politics for a generation or two.”

Wrong conclusion. This person needs to go back to the cabin and do a little more thinking. Maybe try some honest, humble soul searching this time and try to understand what it is about their thinking that went off track.

We know an ultra liberal, kool-aid drinking couple who slunk off to a cabin in the woods after the election, too. Went there to lick their wounds and stoke their anger.

It seems like a popular lefty thing to do when they don’t get their way. They pretend that they are doing something wholesome in communing with nature, but they are really just seeking a place to stoke their rage in private. They are plotting, planning and scheming. It would never occur to them that all the plotting, planning and scheming they have done in the past was taking them in the wrong direction.

After this couple we know got back to civilization, they looked around for some place to channel their anger, disappointment and misery and noticed that a women’s anti-trump rally was being planned in DC and signed up. It never occurred to them to investigate just who was behind the protest or even what the purpose of the protest was. They just joined up like the useful idiots they are. They have no idea that support for sharia is at the root of it and probably wouldn’t want to know. They are that blind and that stupid.

[Thank You Rush]

Wondered where that quote was since it was referred to "above"..... ""California is already living in the next economic period — and it’s booming"" Must be great stuff they're smoking in CA these days!

[rockrr]

I think the next 4 to 8 years are going to see a serious sea change in politics — to the left, not the right.

We tried the extremist left - it almost killed us. We're going to go right for a while....or we will perish from this earth.

[Charles Martel]

"As to the history of the revolution, my ideas may be peculiar, perhaps singular. What do we mean by the Revolution? The war? That was no part of the revolution; it was only an effect and consequence of it. The revolution was in the minds of the people, and this was effected from 1760–1775, in the course of fifteen years, before a drop of blood was shed at Lexington."

-John Adams

******

Tracing back, this new revolution began during Bush 43's second term, when the Democrats (and their media) shifted the abuse into high gear. Those past twelve years roughly align with Adams' thoughts on the pre-war changes in the minds of colonial Americans.

BTW, this factor also applies to Brexit. People like the writer of this piece may think that these events are anomalies and will not change the "big picture", but time may tell otherwise.

[Behind the Blue Wall]

Thanks for posting this, I do think it’s worthwhile for us here at Free Republic to consider these arguments. George W. Bush won two terms but he did grievous damage to the GOP, to conservatism, to the nation, by steering us in a couple of very wrong directions. Whether it’s luck or the grace of God, we’ve been given one last chance to save this Republic in the form of Donald Trump and the current GOP majority in both houses of Congress, but if we blow this time, it’s probably over for good. As a lifelong resident of California, I can attest that the author is correct about one thing for sure: conservative Republicans have been entirely wiped out in the state that bequeathed Ronald Reagan to the world.

But the author is also dead wrong on several fronts: it is not correct to say that the California economy is working for everyone. For about a quarter of the state’s population, the educated elite, yes, it works quite well. Not only do “we” (I have to count myself a member, coupla elite grad degrees in hand, 200K+/year) command some of the highest salaries in the world, we often make even more money than that just sitting in our houses that appreciate 10-20% year after year. Add to that, the endless flood of cheap labor into the state, not to mention the capitalized digital economy that gets to operate at a loss in order to establish new economy market share, and our lives are not that much different than the modern equivalent of the slaveholders of yore, never preparing our own meals, cleaning our own houses, cutting our own grass, washing our own cars, or nowadays, with Uber, we don’t even have drive ourselves anywhere.

So, yes, for that group, California as currently constituted works great. But for the other 75%, it only works to the extent that their expectations are far lower than what an American citizen should want out of life. The author cites that even the white working class is on board, and that’s a flat out lie. There is no white working class in most of the state, they have been long since driven out of the state. The majority of the working classes of the state are non-white immigrants and/or their immediate descendants. For them, maybe a life crammed into a small rented apartment in a dangerous neighborhood with crappy schools, constantly at the mercy of one’s landlord and boss, is better than what they left behind, but it would be intolerable for most of the people in middle America who voted for Trump. They expect better and they deserve better.

So, yeah, if the future is a small elite class of highly educated technocrats ruling over a mass of uneducated, impoverished dependent serfs, then yes, California is the model. That may be the globalists wet dream but it’s not the American dream. If we are to reclaim the American dream, it’s based on the idea that every man can rule his own castle, as a strong and independent equal citizen, then Trump is shining the light on the path forward, not trying to return us to some bygone era.

[MNnice]

“Here’s what the Electoral College map would look like if only millennials voted.”

The thing is, everyone eventually grows up. I voted democrat until I was 30.

[rockrr]

The conservative ideology, those policies, are dead.

Conservatism is an immutable principle. It cannot be killed - just ignored. It's not dead (in kalifornia), it's just not in practice. Kalifornians are going to regret that they allowed this to happen. The rest of America already regrets it every time another loony liberal from kalifornia shows up in their neighborhood as a refuge.

[Thank You Rush]

“”Obama’s decade of work will be seen, in the decades to come, as the truly enduring foundation””

As was the Russian Revolution for roughly 75 years!!! Which isn’t far from what obozo and his cohorts were working for the whole time and will CONTINUE TO DO SO!

[trebb]

They failed to mention it’s the end of the eras of Federal Tyranny and the destruction of the 10th Amendment. It must really scare them that Trump wan’t to return the power to the governed over the government.

[HokieMom]

<< everyone eventually grows up. >>

He’s a millennial and I explain that’s usually what happens.

[MarkL]

The ironic thing (to me) is that so many Silicon Valley entrepreneurs seems to embrace Big Government. There is definitely something wrong with that picture, so all must be not as it seems.

Many, if not most, depend on government, either for subsidies or to help put their competition out of business (or keep others from entering into the market.)

Mark

[rockrr]

This person needs to go back to the cabin and do a little more thinking. Maybe try some honest, humble soul searching this time and try to understand what it is about their thinking that went off track.

Yours were offered with the best of intentions but GIGO (garbage in: garbage out). No matter how long he "thinks", he will invariably come to the same wrong conclusions.

A tactic of the left is to accuse one's debate opponent of being "closed minded" and unable to consider alternate points of view. I always challenge this assertion by saying, "Nonsense. If you can sustain your assertions by virtual of persuasive argument and the introduction of actual evidence I will readily adopt it."

Very occasionally I'll get someone who will attempt an argument but only on the rare occasion. Most lefties do not understand the difference between an argument and an insult.

[CIB-173RDABN]

Peter Leyden is living in a socialist bubble. California is more like the old Soviet Union then anything else. A one party state that has complete control of every aspect of it from the government to education to entertainment and the media.

Opposition is not allowed. No other view other than Democrat talking points are presented. Hell, they even set it up so only Democrats would be running for Congress.

The Democrats have built their utopia on a foundation of sand, it is not a question of if the whole thing collapses, but when.

The left always forget about human nature. A one world government will not work for the same reason there are two Irelands, or two Koreas or the middle east is always in turmoil.

The old Soviet Union managed to hold everything together by using violence. How many are the one worlders willing to kill to impose their view of utopia on the world? And do they really think people will not fight back?

Yes Peter, it is the end of an era, the socialist era of the past 100 plus years. People want to be free to live their lives the way they want, to worship their god they want, to associate with people they want, to speak out on things without fear of punishment.

[T-Bird45]

Love your thoughts on historical parallels and the Adams quote. Now the question becomes whether we are made of the stern stuff those 18th Century revolutionaries were.

[T-Bird45]

Enjoyed your comments that align so well with your screen name. I found your final paragraph to be especially on the mark. I think more than a couple of novelists have made their bones exploring the first sentence of the paragraph and the final sentence on focusing on the future sets the tone for our conversations going forward.

[Garth Tater]

I think the backlash will be fast and furious. And it won’t just be Trump that goes down — it will be large swaths of conservative Republicans... Hillary would not have been able to finally bring down the conservative movement and its archaic ideology.

What a mixture of indoctrinated error, hubris and wishful thinking this young man is. Conservatism is not an archaic ideology. It is a realistic philosophy (not an ideology) that balances individual human nature with the need for community. It was developed over thousands of years by some of the best minds that humanity has been able to produce- much better minds than the State of California is currently producing.

I would suggest this boy read up on natural law and the rights of man and then read the second paragraph of the Declaration of Independence for the best statement of man's relationship to his community ever written. You know, the one that starts with "We hold these truths to be self-evident..." and then goes on to state "That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed," -- but his indoctrinated mind is probably no more capable of doing that, let alone understanding what it will never bother to read, than it was capable of seeing the Trump revolution coming.

What a poor boy. Life is really going to smack him in the face hard one of these days. I hope I'm there to help - with the smacking.

[mom of young patriots]

That made me chuckle. Garbage in: Garbage out. How true.

Yes, my advice for the guy was really just rhetorical, anyway. He has no hope of arriving at a different opinion because he is incapable of that kind of honesty and self criticism. Part of being in the liberal cult requires that group think drown out any genuine critical thinking. Any openmindedness they pretend to have is a lie.

“A tactic of the left is to accuse one’s debate opponent of being “closed minded” and unable to consider alternate points of view.”

So true. This is one of the many tactics leftists have memorized to shut down debate. They go on the attack with insults and accusations and hope that you won’t be quick enough to respond.

It is one of the reasons that they have been so successful with name calling, using words like racist, homophobe, bigot, etc. Those words tend to have a paralyzing effect on a lot of honest people and they waste time refuting an empty charge from a defensive position when there was no shred of proof that those labels ever applied. The honest person feels compelled to prove their innocence of the charge before they even have a standing in the debate. Doing that in the face of smug condescension from the other side is a useless exercise.

[ridesthemiles]

IF this Liberal jerk doesn’t want to benefit from a cleaner, safer America, more honest AMERICANS working, fewer illegals stealing our jobs & tax money thru EIC ^& ‘child care’ refunds...and a long laundry list of items I am confident that Trump will fix-—I IMPLORE him to go to another country. Please-—sir—leave now while the waiting list doesn’t delay you.

Perhaps Indonesia would suit him-—or Mexico-—or one of the Central Americas. Or Sweden-—be sure to take your young lady friends with you-—!!!

This person has his head completely up his behind and hasn’t paid one bit of attention to the real facts of this country under Obama. Even today, Juan Williams—deliberate traitor—is still banging the drum for Obama-—because he ‘dropped the UNEMPLOYMENT rate from 10% to 4.8 %.

That statistic alone is the biggest lie of the entire 8 years under Obama...followed only by “you will save $2500 a year on your health care premiums”-—and the Russians hacked the voting machines!!!

Don’t know where this person lives most of the time, or what he does for a living——but he certainly is drinking the Kool Aid.

[relictele]

‘Reshaping capitalism’ is a simple two-word phrase that reveals volumes about the left.

Capitalism (read: free markets) shapes itself. It’s the most efficient way to maximize availability and minimize price. Sellers and buyers are satisfied in the least amount of time.

I know you know this already.

But ‘reshaping’ is the age-old conceit that someone out there is smarter than individuals acting in their own best interests. Barack Obama is one of these ‘smarter’ individuals or so he thinks.

[Liz]

This nothing but an over-produced infomercial. Guy struttin' his stuff, exalting himself.....salivating as he presses on to his money-making agenda:

"My company Reinvent is really fortunate to be in the middle of that swirl of possibilities. We host What’s Now: San Francisco that focuses on the latest developments in one of the many fields exploding in innovation across the region."

Oh yeah, he plans to raise tons of money on this pontificating nothingness of an article.