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This Time, There Really Is a Hispanic Voter Surge
NY Times ^ | Nov. 7, 2016 | Nate Cohn

Posted on 11/07/2016 2:03:47 PM PST by Innovative

Hispanic voters were largely credited with President Obama’s victory in 2012, but they weren’t as crucial as many believed. Mr. Obama didn’t even need to win the Hispanic vote to put him over the top, thanks to high black turnout and support among white voters in the North. The turnout among Hispanic voters didn’t surge, even though exit polls implied that it had.

This year, Hispanic voters, perhaps motivated by Donald J. Trump’s policy proposals (including deportation) and harsh language aimed at undocumented Hispanic immigrants, really might decide this election. Early voting data unequivocally indicates that Hillary Clinton will benefit from a long awaited surge in Hispanic turnout, vastly exceeding the Hispanic turnout from four years ago.

It’s too soon to say whether it will be decisive for her. The geographic distribution of Hispanic voters means that many of her gains will help her in noncompetitive states like Texas and California, not Michigan and Pennsylvania.

But the surge is real, and it’s big. It could be enough to overcome Mr. Trump’s strength among white-working class voters in the swing states of Florida and Nevada. If it does, it will almost certainly win her the election.

In Florida, voters who indicated they were Hispanic on their voter registration form represent more than 15 percent of the early vote. In 2012, Hispanic voters were just 12 percent of the final electorate.

(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Florida; US: Nevada
KEYWORDS: 2016swingstates; election; fl2016; hispanics; hispanicvote; trump; voters
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To: Innovative

Apparently a lot of Puerto Ricans have been moving to Florida and the democrats have been so aggressive to register them to vote they have been getting them as they step off the plane.


41 posted on 11/07/2016 2:19:08 PM PST by Rusty0604
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This is IDIOT Nate wishing for a Hispanic surge

Only State that could make a differance is Nevada! LOL


42 posted on 11/07/2016 2:19:13 PM PST by KavMan
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To: Innovative

Who in their right mind listens to NY times.


43 posted on 11/07/2016 2:19:42 PM PST by bobrlbob
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To: Innovative

Yet, even with this “surge” Dems are underperforming their 12 lead in early voting in Floriday.

This is wishful thinking by the NYT and the left...

At best any Hispanic surge for Hillary might do something like keep NV from flipping, and that’s about it.


44 posted on 11/07/2016 2:20:47 PM PST by HamiltonJay
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To: Innovative

NYT? Thank goodness this isn’t from a credible source.


45 posted on 11/07/2016 2:21:41 PM PST by colorado tanker
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To: Innovative
Or Hispanics from Venezuela.
46 posted on 11/07/2016 2:21:55 PM PST by Chgogal (A woman who votes for Hillary is voting with her vagina and not her brain.)
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To: Innovative

No discussion of the white surge, huh?


47 posted on 11/07/2016 2:23:46 PM PST by BlueCat
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To: Innovative

No discussion of the white surge, huh?


48 posted on 11/07/2016 2:23:47 PM PST by BlueCat
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To: Vaquero

According to Obama, if they vote they are a citizen. He needs to be exiled.


49 posted on 11/07/2016 2:23:52 PM PST by Rusty0604
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To: Innovative

I’ve come across a sizeable number of Hispanics in my time and I can tell you a very small percentage take handouts unless they really need it.

And even then, they intend on making it temporary.

I think this bodes well for Trump.

Before I get attacked I understand my little sample space is far from statistically significant and may not reflect the entire country. Just sharing my own observations.


50 posted on 11/07/2016 2:24:32 PM PST by MichaelCorleone (Jesus Christ is not a religion. He's the Truth.)
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To: Innovative
...Mr. Obama didn’t even need to win the Hispanic vote to put him over the top, thanks to high black turnout and support among white voters in the North.

High black turnout doesn't win an election. Flippin whites everywhere voting for Obama won that election.
51 posted on 11/07/2016 2:27:06 PM PST by stylin19a (obama = Fredo smart)
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To: dirtboy

It is the same here-I’m from a centuries-old Tejano ranch family, as are many more here, and in other rural areas-none of us vote for democrats-we are Catholic, prolife and believe children need a stable family-a mom and dad to teach them proper morals and values and a strong work ethic-we do not believe in homosexual marriage, or that it is not a sin-all opposite of what democrats are selling-we all have Trump/Pence signs on our gates...


52 posted on 11/07/2016 2:32:23 PM PST by Texan5 (`"You've got to saddle up your boys, you've got to drive a hard line"...)
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To: MountainWalker

At least our second graders will always have a future as ‘journalists’. They won’t even have to study!


53 posted on 11/07/2016 2:32:51 PM PST by perfect_rovian_storm
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To: BlueCat

That must be unmentioned at all costs. If the subject is broached it immediately gets discredited.


54 posted on 11/07/2016 2:34:07 PM PST by Kudsman (Trump or bust 2016!)
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To: Innovative

What the New York times fails to mention is that Hispanic voters are grouped into about 10 states, all but a couple already solidly democrat. In many swing states (Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota) the Hispanic vote is so small if they all voted for Hillary it wouldn’t make a dent in the overall totals. Personally I would happily take a 25% increase in Hispanic vote for a 25% decrease in black vote, we might lose Nevada and Colorado but we would more than make up for it in the great lakes states.


55 posted on 11/07/2016 2:42:49 PM PST by apillar
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To: Westbrook

Funny my 2 friends are Puerto Rican and never voted for a republican(55yrs old ny residents)
They said both voted for Trump, so the surge may be correct but not in the way the times is hoping


56 posted on 11/07/2016 3:00:03 PM PST by italianquaker
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To: BeadCounter

I’m in Mexico right now. The Mexicans that I have met miss living in the United States. They hate their fellow Mexican employers for treating them like slaves and their Mexican competitors ( for work ) are literally cut-throat.

They want their anchor babies to vote for Clinton, because they believe she will allow them to come back legally.

They hate the idea of a wall, yet every Mexican house, that is not in a gated community has a tall, pointy wall. Such hypocrites.


57 posted on 11/07/2016 3:12:40 PM PST by lulu16 (May the Good Lord take a liking to you!)
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To: Innovative
Hillary's view on abortion is very extreme a large portion of Hispanics are devout catholic who believe in god and country. The lib media is so racist most Hispanics are hard working law abiding citizen who believe in the rule of law trump will pull in the 30percent plus
58 posted on 11/07/2016 3:13:50 PM PST by tied to the right (Independants)
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To: Innovative

I stopped at

“unequivocally”

NYT using that word means just the opposite.


59 posted on 11/07/2016 3:16:59 PM PST by Thickman (Obama - Professor of the United States)
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To: Innovative

Small problem, this is the latest meme from desperate Ds and many of the “Hispanics” are Cubans and Haitians who hate Cankles.


60 posted on 11/07/2016 3:17:32 PM PST by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually" (Hendrix))
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