Posted on 11/05/2016 11:13:08 PM PDT by Helicondelta
2012 turnout was just under 1 million. The lion’s share of the vote is in. Not sure if early voting continues through Monday. But “election day” is turning into but an afterthought in many states.
Based on your polling, Trump currently has 332,947 votes out of the total or 47.4%. Romney got 45.68%.
Jennifer Griffin of Fox News did the 10% comment.
Scott Rasmussen was on Watters World Saturday evening.
Ended Friday. Latest registration statistics as of bookclosing 10/18/16 (1,464,819 active voters):
http://nvsos.gov/sos/elections/voters/voter-registration-statistics/2016-statistics
D 577,659
R 488,861
NonPartisan 304,528
Independent American Party 63,330
What’s a little curious to me is this peculiar party in NV called “independent american party.” They are 5% of the active voters (not insignificant). They are 5 times as large as the libertarians. They get lumped in with OTHERS during early voting. I would like to know how these people vote. It may be very enlightening to Tuesday.
Also EV margin in 2012 was Dems over GOP by 6.9%
This year that margin is 5.9%.
http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4567
Also in 2012, 56% of active registered voters cast ballots during Early Voting. 702,000 Early Voters and 1,258,000 million registered active voters as of bookclosing that year.
In 2016, 52.5% of active registered voters have cast ballots during Early Voting. More voting will occur on election day this year at compared to 2012. Interesting. You should blast this on twitter LS.
Throw it back in Ralston’s face and AllahPundit. We may be a little ahead a little behind or tied but in no way shape or form are the Dems doing as well as they did in 2012.
This data absolutely speaks to the closeness of NV.
look at post 63
if he is running 3 or 4 points ahead of Heck, he has it in the bag. Trump-Masto voters ... are they a significant group?
Poll didn’t survey on Heck/Masto
Good news!
The Independent American Party doesn’t look like your typical Hillary supporters. Safe to say she would get none of these votes. Trump should pick up some ground here.
http://www.independentamericanparty.org/
Thanks very helpful!
Based on those numbers, it certainly doesn’t look like Trump is trailing at this point!
Yes exactly.
In fact he may be leading in actual votes!
Voter registration deadline 10/18 in NV.
thats very bad for clinton
Repubs only improving the early vote margin by 1% doesn’t bode well when Romney lost the state by 7 points.
Also just read an article saying hispanics moved up 2% in the population there since 2012.
I doubt that more voting will occur on election day this year. I expect we’ll see an even lower proportional turnout on election day as compared to 2012 than we see in early voting. EV dropped by about 6%. Stands to reason election day will do the same or more.
Since Romney won Arizona by 9 points, that 5 point switch in whites and hispanics should not be enough to turn it into a Trump loss.
Romney lost by 6.6%. Not a huge hurdle at all.
GOP always votes heavier election day (numerous states, numerous elections). That’s just what most GOP voters do. Decreased turnout as a percetage compared to 2012 still suggests decreased Democratic enthusiasm.
This is actually quite favorable to Tuesday. Personally also Hispanics are so varied that I find it hard to categorize them uniformly like African-Americans. A GOP registered Hispanic in NV will vote like a GOP registered caucasian.
Amen!
I heard that this morning. They said the Hispanics are coming out in droves for Clinton and could take the lead from Trump but I don’t see that in the polls.
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