Nov 3 NV poll on CNN. Trump up big.

CNN ^

[kabar]

Dems are not voting for Trump

We will agree to disagree. Non-Hispanic white Dems are crossing over all across the nation. In PA over 100,000 Dems changed their registration to vote in the Rep primary. I am sure many who haven't changed registration will still vote for Trump. It is the reason why MI and PA are in play. In 1980 they were called Reagan Democrats.

UA numbers are up big in many states. They call that the monster vote.

[JediJones]

That goes both ways. Find me one person who hasn’t endorsed Trump or openly supported him who is predicting he’s going to win this election. Everyone has a bias and bias isn’t the only thing to look at in judging someone’s analysis.

[JediJones]

FL is way up in early voters. Looks like some law might have “suppressed” them last time. Last time half the vote was early. Now it looks like 75% of the FL vote is already in.

[dp0622]

If it is, why post it here as many know we probably need that state.

What good did it do? FReepers from NV are GOING to vote. No need to motivate them.

But it is a GREAT way to bring FReepers down. Not everyone is the same and not all FReepers are immune from giving up if they see that.

NH is a MUST. CO doesn’t give enough votes in Trump’s strategy. The campaign sent out the map of what they need to win.

If what you say about NV is true, then I guess it’s gonna be an early night as all the other states you mentioned are long shots and you know it.

The PRs are voting heavy in FL too. Should we cry over that?

PA, VA, MI? A huge voter turnout in NV is MUCH more important than vesting time in states that are like a girl who always promises a kiss but you never get one at the end of the night.

[Viennacon]

I should clarify.

Democrats are outpacing their 2012 numbers by a substantial margin. Not HUGE, but substantial enough to be noted.

Obama won in Nevada by 7 points. However, the last polls in Nevada in 2012, had Obama winning by 3.8 points. Current polls have Trump up by about that margin. This one is down to the wire. Trump could win it, and dont let anyone say otherwise. It is possible. But it will be down to an enthusiasm surge on the day.

[JerseyDvl]

I certainly believe it can be won and am optimistic except for the early voting numbers in this state. If Nevada is lost Donald can move on to the next battleground state where the cheating hasn’t been too overwhelming.

[07Jack]

Wow, I know its "back of the envelope", but if I'm understanding your estimation correctly, things aren't as bad as the MSM is making them.
I’m hearing roughly 700K votes already cast with about 400K to go on election day.
Not insurmountable at all, if the R’s may only have to make up an estimated 8K vote deficit out of an estimated 400K vote total.

[mrsmith]

Seems a bunch of states have made it easier to vote early. Haven’t kept track of it, I guess because I don’t approve.
And there’s renewed campaign encouragement.

Some of the increase in early votes has to be cannibalized from ED voters. No idea if it hurts one Party more than another.

[Alberta's Child]

If poll numbers are suggesting that Trump is doing 11 points better than Romney in Nevada then I like his chances in a number of other states — even if the poll numbers are wrong and he’s only doing 4-5 points better than Romney.

[editor-surveyor]

.
After what the democraps have done to Colorado in the past few years, they deserve to choke to death if they vote for Hitlery.
.

[epluribus_2]

“Will there be ballons, lot’s of baloons?”. Sure Hill, lots of balloons. Now take this and drink some, no, water this time...

[Viennacon]

I’d say he’s doing around 6 points better than Romney in Nevada.

[dp0622]

I’m not familiar with the state of affairs in CO.

Things have gone downhill?

[Alberta's Child]

OK — that’s probably a good summary of where things stand right now.

[Viennacon]

This is my map right now

http://www.270towin.com/maps/QBwYY

Giving him Ohio and Iowa (no dem leads for a while and early voting for dems isnt promising there)

Maine’s 2nd for obvious reasons

New Hampshire because there is no early voting whatsoever, and people seem to distrust Hillary there in very high margins (disgruntled Bernie voters also in play).

For the swing states: Nevada, Colorado, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and North Carolina

No Wisconsin because I dont see a single poll with Trump up there, ever. New Mexico... polling is scant, but i can’t bring myself to believe it. Virginia is in tossup only after two polls put Trump ahead, but this one is the most likely to go to Hillary. North Carolina by similar margins i put closest to Trump. In order, from most likely Hillary, to most likely Trump

Virginia
Nevada
Pennsylvania
Florida
Michigan
Colorado
North Carolina

[editor-surveyor]

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Its almost as bad as Australia.
.

[hotsteppa]

Latest polls have Trump leading in Nevada so your post is full of you know what.

[Alberta's Child]

I think you've got a good sense of where this is going. I'd just make a few comments:

1. Your assessment of PA and MI seems strange. I would have thought MI would be more of a long-shot for Trump than PA. I can't envision a scenario where PA goes for Clinton and MI goes for Trump. If those two are split, I think for sure it will be the other way around.

2. Michigan is a stronger state for Trump than Florida is?

3. Pennsylvania and Michigan are stronger for Trump than Virginia is?

[dp0622]

didn’t they have all their guns taken away over there?

I wonder what about hunting.

[editor-surveyor]

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CO now has tight restrictions on guns.
.