Posted on 11/03/2016 6:28:32 AM PDT by Strac6
See Map at link:
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
Move NH and we have a 269-269 tie.
Only in the media’s fantasy land.
538 electoral votes available
269 + 269 = 538
House of Representatives breaks the tie.
We win.
We should hope if it’s an EV tie, that Trump wins the popular vote. Otherwise Dems will claim the House is stealing the election. So we need all those red state voters to turn out. We know McMormon is going to pull down Trump’s popular vote in Utah and possibly elsewhere.
Madonna needs to work harder!
LMAO!!!
“Hillary’s quiver is empty of any more support.”
Today is just about the last day to throw any haymakers and I don’t think Hilary has any left.
Even the left-wing azcentral.com put it at 10,000+, but the location was oat the ASU campus where there are 82,000 students.
I bet it was mostly students in the audience....:^)
Can someone please explain to me why Fox News always seems to report/reference other liberal networks and papers’ polls? It’s always an ABC or CBS poll, or it’s a NYT or WAPO poll. Aren’t they a big enough outfit to conduct their OWN polls and report them? It comes across as they’re a surrogate for the other networks. Very strange (at least to me).
We saw a dramatic late shift in last year’s Canadian federal election, which was a 3 party race. The governing Conservatives hovered in the low 30s most of the campaign period but never went below 30% in the polls, which is where they ended up. But the two opposition parties switched places entirely. Early in the race the ultra socialist NDP were leading and the soclialist-lite Liberals were in 3rd. Then momentum shifted and the Liberals surged entirely at the expense of the NDP. There had been a high degree of “undecided” up to that point, and when they broke in the week prior to the election they went en masse for the Liberals.
It looks as though the same thing is happening now. The undecideds who had parked their votes with Johnson or Stein are now shifting massively for Trump. What had been a tight race could turn into a rout.
Of the two types of trolls I'm not sure who's worse ... the concern trolls or the ... nothing will happen to Hitlery, they will steal the election surrender trolls ... I think the whiny roll over and die there's nothing we can do surrender trolls are the worst.
In any case ... concern and especially surrender trolls ... crawl back under your rocks and leave this to those who have a backbone
Trump has camped out in NC for the past 2 weeks. He’s everywhere.
And don’t forget the “Brixit vote”, the 4-6% who wouldn’t tell the pollsters they were voting T
It’s also all about estimating turnout of certain demographics, which is much harder for the pollsters to do than to simply ask who someone they call is voting for. If Trump can bring out more white blue-collar voters than normal, and Hillary brings out less blacks, then that’s all you need to flip it.
Ditto..as I posted on another thread, everyone should take a look at yesterday’s Hampton University survey, which put Trump up by 3 (one month ago, Hillary and a 12-point lead). The Hampton U poll doesn’t get a lot of attention but the WaPo has called it the most accurate in Virginia. And believe me, no one can accuse the university (or its public policy department) of being in the tank for Trump.
Living near key Democratic bastions like Norfolk, Newport News and Hampton, I can tell you enthusiasm on the other side is virtually non-existent. On the other hand, go a few miles further into the 1st Congressional District (which runs from middle York County to the Richmond suburbs and includes the Northern Neck) and it’s a completely different story. Yard signs all over the place and there are Trump supporters on the side of Highway 17 every day. It’s an R+7 district and there will be a huge turnout on election day.
If minority voter turnout is way down in the Norfolk area and other locales like Richmond and Petersburg, Hillary will have to carry Northern Virginia by an even larger margin to win the state. Slowly but surely, that scenario seems to be fading.
“Someone on Fox said it seemed possible Trump could win the popular vote and lose the EVs. Noteworthy because it’s the first time they were taking it seriously he would win the popular vote. Them saying he could lose the EC is I think just a function of state polls lagging behind national polls.”
There is almost no realistic statistical probability of Trump losing the Electoral College IF he wins the popular vote.
“In truth, however, this “blue wall” doesn’t exist. The Electoral College does not give a clear advantage to either political party. Democrats have won the electoral vote in four of the past six presidential elections because they have won the popular vote in five of the past six presidential elections. Indeed, one need look back only four Olympiads—to the year of Michael Phelps’s first Olympics—to find an example of a Democratic nominee losing the electoral vote despite winning the national popular vote—and by more than half a percentage point. There is no recent example of a Republican nominee suffering the same fate.
Let’s look at the four presidential elections in this century. In 2000, George W. Bush won the electoral vote by a tally of 271 to 266 (with one abstention), while losing the popular vote to Al Gore by 0.51 points. If Bush had done 0.51 points better in every state—thereby making the popular vote dead-even—he would have added New Mexico (which he lost by 0.06 points), Wisconsin (lost by 0.22 points), Iowa (lost by 0.32 points), and Oregon (lost by 0.44 points) to his column, thereby giving him 301 electoral votes to Gore’s 236........”
http://www.hudson.org/research/12802-yes-donald-trump-has-a-path-to-270-electoral-votes
Really highlights how devastating the loss of Virginia has been. Where does he get another 5. Maybe from NH and 1 from Maine?
Nebraska has five electoral votes, not four like what is shown on the map. How many other errors are there?
It’s still a Hillary win, but if Trump adds anything else, it’s a Trump win. Colorado, NH (okay, then he needs Maine’s Second District too or Congress to elect him), VA, PA, or any of the Rust Belt will do it.
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