Does "souls to the polls" really increase AA turnout in states like North Carolina and Florida?

10/30/2016 | self

[SpeedyInTexas]

The short answer is No. It is all hype, not supported by evidence.

[SpeedyInTexas]

As evidence, look at these graphs for NC and FL.

In North Carolina, this graph shows early voting in 2012 vs 2016 by race.

What do we see? The AA daily percentage turnout is pretty much constant each day leading up to election day in 2012. There is no spike on the weekends or on Church Sunday. The only spike is when in-person early voting starts - but unrelated to "souls to the polls".

In Florida, this graph shows early voting in 2012 vs 2016 by race.

What do we see? The AA cumulative vote total had a pretty constant slope each day leading up to election day in 2012. There is no spike on the weekends or on Church Sunday.

[SpeedyInTexas]

ping

[LS]

Good job as usual. VA, PA.

NC done and we win

[goldstategop]

Black voters just aren’t into Hillary.

D turnout is reverting to pre-2008 levels.

No evidence Obama coalition is turning out for her.

[MaxistheBest]

Jake Tapper on CNN just said that the AA vote for Clinton is running well behind 2012 in all early voting states.

BOOM !

[Ravi]

Yep. Can’t add anything. You’ve shown it all there.

[Ravi]

Very anecdotal but Broward County Florida early voting wait times all very short:

http://www.browardsoe.org/Voting-Methods/Early-Voting-Location-Status-Times

[goldstategop]

Yup. Its not D +7, D +8.

Jake Tapper said as much. Assumption Ds are turning out in huge numbers simply isn’t borne out by the data.

Ditto for Millenials.

Tracking poll data shows electorate is R +4 but they’re refusing to take it at face value.

Polls are way off in turnout estimate.

[goldstategop]

If D stronghold Broward County FL is not showing up for Hillary, they’re not showing up for her around the country.

You would expect long wait times if they were showing up.

[jmaroneps37]

Remington poll says Rump doing 29% of Black vote in Pennsylvania and our good friends at RCP Natie’s enablers say Trump is now getting 16% so yeah it is happening. And it will have an even bigger effect since it will come from a smaller Black turnout. Research is your friend.

[rb22982]

Agreed. I don’t think we get R+4 but I’ll take tied

[Ravi]

The thing is no media person wants to be the one that says African-American vote is down because they might get crucified by fellow establishment types. For Tapper to admit that is huge. It has been shown repeatedly in Georgia, NC and Florida that the AA vote is down compared to 4 years ago. This is the untold story the media is afraid to touch on.

[Ravi]

That was my thought. They do have 21 polling places throughout the county though. Maybe the voters all spread out - I doubt it though.

[Redcitizen]

I thought souls to the polls meant dead voters voting democrat regardless of their political affiliation while living.

[MaxistheBest]

“Ditto for Millenials”

They bought all that hopey changey stuff already...they need their sleep now!

[Preston Manning]

Let’s see what becomes of the AA vote when O’Keefe’s next video gets out.

[willk]

I would think that blacks who attend church regularly would tend to be more conservative. This is where Trump would be getting most of the AA vote.

[goldstategop]

Why?

Pollsters are reweighing it to D +7, D +8.

They don’t trust the data? If its really D +7, D +8, D strongholds should show a high voter surge.

Where is it? We see the opposite with Rs and Indies.

[SpeedyInTexas]

That is a good sign.

Tomorrow, I’m going to put in my prediction for combined (absentee + in-person) early voting in Florida. DEMs led combined early voting in 2012 by 168k.

Hint: prediction for the leader of combined early voting may start with an R instead of a D. Just need todays in-person results. Stay tuned...

[LS]

Nate Cohn desperately clinging to notion that in NC only 70% of Republicans will vote Trump.