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Clinton Vs. Trump: IBD/TIPP Presidential Election Tracking Poll
IBD ^ | October 28, 2017 | Investor's Business Daily

Posted on 10/28/2016 3:44:02 AM PDT by BlueStateRightist

The IBD/TIPP poll — a collaboration between Investor's Business Daily (IBD) and TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence (TIPP) — has been the most accurate poll in recent presidential elections.

(Excerpt) Read more at investors.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2016polls; election; polls; trump
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To: Navin Johnson

No. but i do think in listening to interviews with this pollster that he is in love with his track record and is refusing to see reality. I wonder if he reweighted his sample to 37,37, 26 in 2008? Doubt it. Also, this is a 7 day roller so last Sat and Sun are still in their. Lets see tomorrow’s result. Guarantee it tightens a bit. I do think that they are “burying” Stein’s vote with Hillary. She was polling 5 a week ago. Now 1?


21 posted on 10/28/2016 4:14:37 AM PDT by usafa92 (Trump 2016 - Destroying the GOPe while Making America Great Again!!)
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To: woweeitsme; usafa92
-- Why wouldn't they just run the poll at a D+7 instead of reweighting it? --

Supposedly, there is no way to know, ahead of time, that the sample taken reflects the expected turnout. So they "assume" a turnout model, and weight the sample according to what they claim is the expected turnout.

Weighting also introduces another assumption, that the DEM vote will be 100% Crooked, and the R vote will be 100% Trump.

22 posted on 10/28/2016 4:16:07 AM PDT by Cboldt
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To: BlueStateRightist

Liberals just want to kill babies and get free stuff. They don’t care that she’s a criminal. That’s why they want convicts in prison to vote.

I just want this election over and done with and Ohole out of the rainbow house.


23 posted on 10/28/2016 4:17:57 AM PDT by seawolf101 (Member LES DEPLORABLES)
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To: BlueStateRightist

They can’t get voters like us to answer the phone. You ‘oh noers’, buck up!

Get a spine and stop the pessimism. Why do you believe the polls no matter what we explain here? Why?

Romney is not running. Nor is McCain. Nor is Dole or Bush...any Bush. They all would be fine with losing.


24 posted on 10/28/2016 4:28:38 AM PDT by CincyRichieRich (To liberals, lying is like breathing. Believe what you cannot see.)
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To: BlueStateRightist

It shows Clinton rising recently and Trump falling - the exact opposite of the real trend. We’ll soon find out if it’s stll the “most accurate” poll.


25 posted on 10/28/2016 4:29:33 AM PDT by ArcadeQuarters ("Immigration Reform" is ballot stuffing)
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To: BlueStateRightist

Discouraging.


26 posted on 10/28/2016 4:31:04 AM PDT by Ted Grant
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To: rb22982

Actual vote will be no more than D+4


27 posted on 10/28/2016 4:32:40 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: usafa92

Election breakdown will likely match real part affiliation breakdown which is 28R 32D and 40I nationally. If they didn’t reweight to this they are using unlikely assumptions


28 posted on 10/28/2016 4:36:39 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: Cboldt

No weighting doesn’t assume all d go hill and all r go trump. They weight it based on the results they have. So if results are d are 90% Hillary and 10% trump they reweight using those numbers


29 posted on 10/28/2016 4:40:04 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: CincyRichieRich

They can’t get voters like us to answer the phone. You ‘oh noers’, buck up!

Get a spine and stop the pessimism. Why do you believe the polls no matter what we explain here? Why?

Romney is not running. Nor is McCain. Nor is Dole or Bush...any Bush. They all would be fine with losing.


I for one am tired of the never ending “you have qualified for this or that” calls that follow answering one political survey call.

Agree on the smiling losers list... Voted for all of them , and what real change did we see.

Go Donald


30 posted on 10/28/2016 4:40:35 AM PDT by patriotspride
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To: HamiltonJay

Yup, I’m guessing D+0 to D+3 given black vote is massively down everywhere we have early voting data (eg: ~30% in NC)


31 posted on 10/28/2016 4:43:14 AM PDT by rb22982
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To: USS Alaska

How do you get that

Looks like 37% rat, 30% Republican and 32% Indie.


32 posted on 10/28/2016 4:44:21 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: BinaryBoy

It has been the most accurate poll since 2004.


33 posted on 10/28/2016 4:48:34 AM PDT by hotdogjones
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To: Ted Grant

Not if you consider they are using a weighted D+7 sample even though their random sample was R+1. I do not think that the turnout this year will be D+7 as it was in 2012 because even the ‘rats are not crazy for Hilldog, but I have been wrong before.


34 posted on 10/28/2016 4:59:55 AM PDT by jospehm20
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To: BlueStateRightist
We better turnout and stand in line for hours to vote.
35 posted on 10/28/2016 5:00:09 AM PDT by TornadoAlley3 ( I'm Proud To Be An Okie From Muskogee)
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To: Nicojones

They assume that it will be a lower turnout of Republicans. Assumption is life’s lowest form of knowledge. Enthusiasm factor favors Trump. This poll is turning into propaganda.


36 posted on 10/28/2016 5:01:05 AM PDT by DarthVader (Politicians govern out of self interest, Statesmen govern for a Vision greater than themselves)
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To: jospehm20

I know, but I also know that we do this dance every four years and it usually winds up the same way.


37 posted on 10/28/2016 5:01:08 AM PDT by Ted Grant
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To: rb22982

Yes 08/12 models are laughable as a baseline for 16. At Best Dems will get the self identified difference which is about 28R to 32D.

The only way D’s go higher than that is if the Monster vote shows up and it’s huge D leaning in which case the extra D will be largely going for Trump and it won’t be helpful to Hillary in the least.


38 posted on 10/28/2016 5:02:57 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: BlueStateRightist

Has anyone else here noticed under the “Intensity of Support”, Trump is leading Hillary 64% to 59% in the Strong column and only behind by 4 points in the Moderate?

FWIW, it makes me think of the Chauncey Gardiner quote from “Being There”: “As long as the roots are not severed, all is well. And all will be well in the garden.”


39 posted on 10/28/2016 5:06:34 AM PDT by OttawaFreeper ("If I had to go to war again, I'd bring lacrosse players" Conn Smythe)
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To: Ted Grant

Republicans usually have a spineless weasel running. Not this year.


40 posted on 10/28/2016 5:08:49 AM PDT by jospehm20
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