Posted on 10/26/2016 12:21:27 PM PDT by 11th_VA
A few weeks ago the Stockton Polling Institute issued a statewide poll that showed Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump in New Jersey by six points. And that was before the final two presidential debates and the release of the controversial “Access Hollywood” video that showed Trump years ago bragging about sexually assaulting women and the subsequent stream of women claiming he had done that to them.
Maybe the Democrats are in good shape in New Jersey as a whole. But the GOP is holding its own in South Jersey, according to a new poll released by the Stockton Polling Institute on Tuesday.
Between Oct. 19 and Oct. 23, the SPI interviewed 625 likely voters from the 2nd Congressional District, which includes all of Atlantic, Cape May, Cumberland and Salem counties and parts of Burlington, Camden, Gloucester and Ocean counties, including all of Southern Ocean County except Barnegat Township and the western part of Stafford Township. Trump leads Clinton 45 to 42 percent, while 4 percent of the polled voters supported Libertarian Gary Johnson, 1 percent gave the nod to the Green Party’s Jill Stein, 3 percent said they weren’t supporting any of the four candidates, and another 3 percent said they were still undecided. Trump’s lead was within the poll’s plus-or-minus 3.9 percent margin of error.
I saw a survey recently, wish I could find it again...paraphrasing:
Among male blue collar supporters between 30 and 65 years of age, a majority said they would vote even if an active riot stood between them and the voting location.
Conversely...
17% of Clinton supporters would not vote if the wait was 90 minutes.
Make that “blue collar Trump supporters”.
I think i saw that poll only thing stopping trump voters was an alien invasion (extraterestial) so dems were ginning up a fake war of the worlds..
I’ve read articles that Trump is running pretty well in upstate New York and downstate Illinois.
Jersey. Tony Soprano.
Listen to Trump, he sounds like Tony sometimes. He’s a local boy. He’s got a shot.
If the Philly suburbs flip and PA goes Red, in NJ race will be very close.
Usual GOPer has no chance. People like Trump because he’s from the Northeast and they’re used to hearing him.
As for NY, he’s running strong upstate and in collar counties down state.
To win, he needs to keep Hillary’s margin out of NYC down to around 60-65%.
Tough but doable.
I think Trump wins NYC.
Gotham will vote for Batman!
“There’s nothing here.”
Au contraire, mon ami! Aren’t you forgetting the Pine Barrens?
Good to know. Ancestors were from Morris County.
There are one or two naval bases in New Jersey, right? That might help some?
Yes, Trump’s working-class appeal is huge. The media and the pollsters can’t (won’t) factor that in.
“And in North Jesey? Hoboken? Fort Lee? Alpine?”
Lots of Trump signs around here so there’s hope.
Swell, it is of note that Romney and McCain lost the district, the last to win it was Bush in 2004 (who didn’t win the state) but I’m not sure why a single CD in NJ was polled, only ME and NE split votes by CD.
and ATLANTIC CITY!!!
I bet at least Staten Island and Suffolk County go Trump.
The south jersey = conservative north jersey = liberal is a myth.
New Jersey politically breaks down like this by county......
Northern New Jersey
Sussex County = Very conservative
Passaic County = Liberal Paterson overwhelms conservative rurals
Bergen County = Can go either way but trending more liberal
Hudson County = Democrats galore (Jersey City)
Essex County = Democrats galore (Newark)
Morris County = Old school Republican
Warren County = Very Conservative
Hunterdon County = Conservative
Somerset County = Republican but getting wobbly
Union County = Democrat
Middlesex County = Democrat
Monmouth County = Republican but getting wobbly
Mercer County = Democrat (Trenton & Princeton)
South Jersey
Burlington County = Democrat
Ocean County = Republican
Atlantic County = Republican but wobbly (Atlantic City)
Camden County = Democrats galore
Gloucester County = Democrat
Salem County = Democrat
Cumberland County = Democrat
Cape May County = Strong Republican
I can tell you that here in northern North Jersey, the Trump signs outnumber HillBilly by at least 100 to one. No kidding. Hoboken is traditionally dem of course, and there is no outward sinage as it’s so urban, but my daughter and her friend live there and they’re voting Trump. I go through Alpine, Fort Lee occasionally, and haven’t seen much of anything except the occasional Trump signs here and there. Interesting thing is in Rockland County, NY, Trump is the overwhelming favorite. There is even a Trump pop up shop right on the highway with a HUGE white box truck emblazoned with TRUMP parked all day long. Even in a very liberal town like Piermont NY, I have seen many more Trump and Vets for Trump signs than I would have ever expected. Maybe 2 HillBilly signs in town. I think the number of people who will vote Trump but NOT show it or say it is way more than anyone realizes.
I’d LOVE to see him do a rally at Liberty State Park in Jersey City, with the backdrop of Lady Liberty and Manhattan right behind him. Wishful thinking, but honestly it would be worth it just to show the media that he has that kind of support. People would come in from all around the state to see him. It would be an amazing event, and the LIBS in Hudson County would be apoplectic.
I live in Jersey and...well, yeah; you’re right.
Fort Dix and McGuire and Lakehurst and Picatinny Arsenal. Part of the problem here is the idiot governor. Good on guns but just agreed to raise gasoline tax by .23 a gallon. The gasoline tax is the only break we have had here. Plus Bridge gate plus his abyssmal failure in improving the economy. Christie was so aweful he has assured a Democrat successor here and real bad news for gun owners in New Jersey.
Fort Dix and McGuire and Lakehurst and Picatinny Arsenal. Part of the problem here is the idiot governor. Good on guns but just agreed to raise gasoline tax by .23 a gallon. The gasoline tax is the only break we have had here. Plus Bridge gate plus his abyssmal failure in improving the economy. Christie was so aweful he has assured a Democrat successor here and real bad news for gun owners in New Jersey.
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